I know the pols haven’t shown it, but Trumps never been down in this race... His low point to dat he was probably up 2.
I believe and have from day one that Trump has at least 3-5 points of support the polls are missing from reverse Bradley effect and another 2-4, perhaps more of disaffective/disenfranchised voters who polling for likely voters filter out because they have not voted in previous elections but are going to show up this time.
The MSM and Pundits have misread this entire election cycle from day one, we are in a disruptive election, the likes of which has not been seen in modern times.. There is absolutely nothing in the modern election era to compare this to. In spite of the media pounding on Trump day after day over inanities, these aren’t going to take him down.. Though he has certainly learned the lesson and is now making efforts to make fewer things that just cause white noise distracting from his overall message. Those distractions weren’t going to kill him, but they were going to slow his momentum and while Trump would still win even if he was plodding though knee deep mud, easier to get and keep momentum of you are walking on firm ground.
No matter how much they attack Trump and no matter how much the GOPe and the nevertrumpers try to undermine him in selfish attempts to hold onto their corrupt fiefdoms and cushy jobs.. It will not stop him.
The electorate has had enough! There is no spin that can make the last 8 years successful. Wages and earnings down, entry level folks and low skill workers can’t even find 40 hour a week work thanks to ObamaCare so those most vulnerable have been reduced to two part time jobs just to eek out an existence and it’s been that way now for this class for close to a decade.. It’s not much better for most everyone else either. In terms of real dollars most folks haven’t seen a legitimate raise in 15 years, they are lucky if they ar just keeping up with the under reported inflation. meanwhile the connected and corrupt pocket millions selling their jobs and opportunities down the toilet. And then those same corrupt folks tell them things are Rosie, and they know they aren’t...
Then what? The see regularly idisputable proof that folks were pocketing millions selling acces and favors to our government... But in this environment we are to believe Hillary Clinton can win????? It’s laughable.
They keep pulling up polls showing a tight race or Clinton ahead even in places where no one with a few neurons firing believe Hillary has a shot.. They want us to believe those that claim to be undecideds will break for Clinton. It’s absolutely insanely hilarious... There at no undecideds of consequential numbers that are going to break for Hillary. She’s a know entity... Other than someone who is a first time vote the odds of anyone who is claiming to be undecided at this point is almost certainly going to break for Trump by Election Day. I expect at least a 60-70 break for Trump by anyone claiming to be undecided today.. I also expect the majority of the 12-15% of republican voters who are not supporting Trump below the typical average support a Republcan candidate would have from his base will also largely come around by November.
Hillary has no path to victory, and all this talk a few weeks ago about Trump being finished will look just like all the other write offs of Trump over the last year.
You make all valid points, however I am mainly worried about the young under age 30. There are a lot of LIV’s in that group. I asked my 25 Y.O. daughter what she thinks of Trump, and she said he is racist and anti-women! She is about to finish law school, and has a large circle of friends. Trump’s remarks about Mexicans and the Mexican judge have obviously been exploited well by the democrats. Trump said “Mexico is sending us rapists and criminals. And some are good people” I wish he would have left out the reference to Mexico altogether. He should have said instead “we are invaded by illegals and many of them are violent criminals”. I know what Trump meant and you know what he meant. But 95% of voters are not political junkies and thus go by snippets seen on TV.
I think the main difference this time will be which side has more energy to actually vote. Trump supporters can’t wait to vote. Hillary voters have no passion except the diehard lefty liberals amounting to less than 20% of all voters. And as you said, the undecideds and over 30 inactive voters will break for Trump.