Study: No One Issue Clearly Unites 5 Groups Of Trump Voters

Emily Ekins pushes back against the idea of one type of Trump voter. Her research for the Voter Study Group reveals the coalition that delivered President Trump the White House.

There are lingering questions about what motivated voters on both sides of the ideological divide in the 2016 election. A new trove of polling data from the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group has some answers which might challenge conventional wisdom. What's key about the study is that it goes all the way back to 2011. A group of 20 analysts from across the ideological spectrum have drawn some conclusions about the findings. One of them is Emily Ekins, a researcher at the libertarian think tank, the Cato Institute. She used the data to focus on Trump voters. She found they could be divided into five distinct groups.

EMILY EKINS: These different groups of voters disagree about virtually every policy issue that we surveyed on, including issues central to the campaign like immigration, matters of race and American identity, the size and scope of government, trade - all of these issues. And this is surprising because a lot of kind of the common media narrative has treated the Trump voter as though it's kind of one type of person that's motivated primarily for one reason. And then this data suggests that, in fact, it's a coalition of different types of voters that voted for him for different reasons.

EKINS: Of course. So one of the groups we found I think fits most closely with the media narrative. The label they were given were American preservationists. And they might surprise you because, in some ways, they don't seem like typical Republicans. They actually think we should raise taxes on wealthy households. They're very concerned about Medicare, strongly support the social safety net. But at the same time, they're very, very skeptical about immigration both illegal and legal immigration and strongly support the temporary travel ban on Muslim immigration. But what I found is that they comprise about 20 percent of the Trump coalition, not 100 or even 50.

Within the same coalition, I found another group that in many ways are just polar opposites of these. We labeled them the free marketeers. They make up about 25 percent of the coalition and on all - almost all of these issues I've mentioned, they don't want to raise taxes on the wealthy. They're very skeptical of the social safety net. And they have very favorable attitudes towards immigrants and racial minorities similar to Democrats, in fact, in these warm feelings. They told us that their vote was actually a vote against Hillary Clinton rather than for Trump. But that first group I mentioned, the preservationists, they were his core supporters that got him through the primaries. For them, he was the reason they voted for him.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Is there anything that unites all five groups - one single thread or issue that they all agree on?

EKINS: So we looked for that. And it's honestly very difficult to find one. The closest thing would be antipathy towards Hillary Clinton. But that's no surprise. That's what happens in these elections. People tend to vilify the other candidate. The other thing that came the closest would be support for the temporary travel ban on Muslim immigration. But even still, two of the five groups really strongly supported it while another two of the five groups only weakly supported it.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: When we look ahead, is this a coalition that could hold? If you look at what has happened in the past - you followed these people from 2011 - is this a coalition that could still unite around President Trump looking forward? Or is this a coalition that is fragile?

EKINS: It's hard to say. I think this election has taught us that predictions are difficult. I think it is fragile. One reason I say that is one of the groups - one of the five groups we identified, the label we gave them was anti-elites. You know, they're very distrustful of elites as their name describes. About 50 percent of them had positive attitudes of Hillary Clinton in 2012 - half of them. You think, well, what on earth happened? The only evidence we have is that they really were - they lost confidence in Hillary Clinton. And also on immigration, while they tend to be very moderate, they're perhaps not quite as liberal as Hillary Clinton's and the Democratic Party's platform was. So I think that they could be gettable by the Democratic Party, but time will tell.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Emily Ekins is a research fellow at the Cato Institute. Her latest report titled "The Five Types Of Trump Voters" was done in collaboration with the Voter Study Group. Emily, thank you so much for joining us.

Overview of Trump Voter Groups

Staunch Conservatives (31 percent) They are steadfast fiscal conservatives, embrace moral traditionalism, and have a moderately nativist conception of American identity and approach to immigration.

Staunch Conservatives comprise the second major tier of core Trump supporters in the Republican primaries, with Ted Cruz being their second choice. (The American Preservationists constitute the core Trump constituency.) Staunch Conservatives are the most loyal Republican voters, and they have maintained highly favorable views of Trump since the election.

Staunch Conservatives tend to be slightly older, more male than female, and upper middle class with moderate levels of education. They are the most likely group to own guns and to be NRA members. They are the most politically interested and aware group and one of the most likely groups to have correct knowledge of political facts.

While not as hardline on immigration as the American Preservationists, they are deeply skeptical of it—both legal and illegal—and worry particularly about Muslim immigration. They feel that having lived in the U.S. for most of one’s life and being Christian are very or fairly important components of being a real American. Although their attitudes toward racial minorities are similar to the attitudes of non-Trump voter groups, they are more worried that discrimination against whites is a major problem.

On economic issues, Staunch Conservatives and the Free Marketeers share an overwhelming opposition to tax hikes on the wealthy, business regulation, and government-provided health care. They have high levels of social trust in other people and worry less about whether the system is rigged. They also take conventional conservative positions on the environment and on cultural issues like same-sex marriage.

Free Marketeers (25 percent) They are small government fiscal conservatives, free traders, with moderate to liberal positions on immigration and race. Their vote was a vote primarily against Clinton and not a vote for Trump.

Although they are a loyal Republican voting group, Free Marketeers are the most skeptical of Trump. A minority voted for him in the early primaries, while Ted Cruz was their other favorite. For the general election, most say their aversion to Clinton, not support of Trump, was their true motivator.

More likely to come from the West, Free Marketeers skew male, are middle aged, and are the most educated and highly paid of the Trump groups (and non-Trump voters).

They are the most likely to be working full time, own their own homes, and have private health insurance. They are more cosmopolitan, the most likely group to know LGBT people, and they are least likely to watch TV or to smoke. Along with Staunch Conservatives, they are one of the most politically engaged and informed voter groups.

They align with Staunch Conservatives’ steadfast fiscal conservativism—except that they are even more supportive of free trade. Nearly 100 percent of them believe that the free market better solves complex economic problems than strong government. They are, however, more liberal than Anti-Elites when it comes to matters of immigration and identity. Immigration is not their priority, they have warm feelings toward immigrants, and they only tepidly support a temporary Muslim travel ban. Their own racial identity is not salient to them, and they are similar to Democrats in their warm feelings toward members of minority groups. They also reject nativist conceptions of American identity.

American Preservationists (20 percent) These Trump voters lean economically progressive, believe the economic and political systems are rigged, have nativist immigration views, and a nativist and ethnocultural conception of American identity.

Although American Preservationists are less loyal Republicans than other Trump voter groups, and nearly half had positive views of Clinton in 2012, American Preservationists comprise the core Trump constituency that propelled him to victory in the early Republican primaries.

American Preservationists have low levels of formal education and the lowest incomes of the Trump groups—and non-Trump voters as well. Despite being the most likely group to say that religion is “very important” to them, they are the least likely to attend church regularly. They are the most likely group to be on Medicaid, to report a permanent disability that prevents them from working, and to regularly smoke cigarettes. Despite watching the most TV, they are the least politically informed of the Trump groups.

American Preservationists appear more likely to desire being around people like themselves, who have similar backgrounds and cultural experiences. They are far more likely to have a strong sense of their own racial identity and to say their Christian identity is very important to them. They take the most restrictionist approach to immigration— staunchly opposing not just illegal but legal immigration as well, and intensely supporting a temporary Muslim travel ban. They feel the greatest amount of angst over race relations: they believe that anti-white discrimination is as pervasive as other forms of discrimination, and they have cooler feelings (as measured on a feeling thermometer scale) toward minorities.(2) They agree in overwhelming numbers that real Americans need to have been born in America or have lived here most of their lives and be Christian.

American Preservationists are trade skeptics and look more like Democrats on domestic economic issues, particularly on the nation’s wealth distribution, concern over old-age entitlement programs, and animus toward Wall Street. They feel powerless against moneyed interested and the politically connected and tend to distrust other people. They also share liberals’ views on the environment, believing that global warming is a serious threat and human activity is primarily to blame.

(2) In this paper, “cool” feelings indicate the respondent rated the particular group between 0 and 48 on a scale of 0 to 100 in which 0 indicates the respondent has very cold and unfavorable feelings toward the group and 100 indicates the respondent has very warm and favorable feelings toward the group.

“Warm” feelings indicate the respondent rated the group between 52 and 100. Neutral feelings are those rated between 48 and 52, capturing the midpoint of the feeling thermometer.

Anti-Elites (19 percent) This group of Trump supporters leans economically progressive, believes the economic and political systems are rigged, and takes relatively more moderate positions on immigration, race, and American identity than American Preservationists. They are also the most likely group to favor political compromise.

Anti-Elites have relatively cooler feelings toward Donald Trump than American Preservationists, and nearly half had favorable opinions of Clinton in 2012. This group shifted most dramatically, however, against Clinton by November 2016. They were the least likely group to mobilize in the Republican primary, but of those who did, they disproportionately turned out for John Kasich.

Anti-Elites are middle-class voters with moderate levels of education, and they skew slightly younger than other Trump groups. They are the least likely group to own guns, go to church, and be politically informed.

Anti-Elites believe that moneyed and political elites take advantage of the system against ordinary people and they support increasing taxes on the wealthy. Compared to the American Preservationists, they take more moderate positions on immigration, race, American identity, religious traditionalism including gay marriage, and the environment. Why are they not Democrats? Perhaps because they take less liberal positions on legal immigration and the temporary Muslim travel ban. Democrats who moderate their positions on immigration might win over some Anti-Elite voters.

The Disengaged (5 percent) This group does not know much about politics, but what they do know is they feel detached from institutions and elites and are skeptical of immigration.

The Disengaged are less loyal Republicans who largely came to vote for Trump in the general election. They skew younger, female, and they are religiously unaffiliated. They are not very politically informed and have limited knowledge of political facts.

The Disengaged do not reveal many strong preferences on surveys, but what they do reveal is they are concerned about immigration and support the temporary Muslim travel ban. They feel unable to influence political and economic institutions and believe the system is biased against them.

There is no such thing as “one kind of Trump voter” who voted for him for one particular reason.

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