Posted on 07/06/2002 6:42:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
GOP Primary:
Craig Benson, 43%
Gordon Humphrey, 23%
Bruce Keough, 15%
Democrat Primary:
Mark Fernald, 31%
Bev Hollingworth, 32%
Head-to-Head:
Benson-Fernald: 47-36
Benson-Hollingworth: 48-35
Keough-Fernald: 37-37
Keough-Hollingworth: 35-40
Humphrey-Fernald: 39-44
Humphrey-Hollingworth: 38-49
BENSON PULLING AWAY FROM GOP FIELD FOR NH GOVERNOR
By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. 603/862-2226 FOR RELEASE
UNH Survey Center July 3, 2002
www.unh.edu/survey-center
DURHAM, NH -- Craig Benson has widened his lead over Gordon Humphrey in the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination while Bruce Keough is threatening Humphrey for second place. Mark Fernald and Bev Hollingworth are tied in their race for the Democratic nomination.
These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The Granite State Poll is sponsored by the University of New Hampshire. Six hundred fifty-eight (658) New Hampshire adults were interviewed between June 23 and July 1, 2002 (margin of sampling error, +/-4 percent). Included in this sample were 529 likely voters in the 2002 general election (margin of sampling error, +/-4 percent), 230 likely GOP primary voters (margin of sampling error, +/-6 percent), and 179 likely Democratic primary voters (margin of sampling error, +/-7 percent). (For more detailed results, visit the Survey Center web site at www.unh.edu/survey-center and click on Press Releases.)
GOP PRIMARY
The race for Governor of New Hampshire is generating more and more interest entering the summer months. Candidates are heavily into the mass media advertising phase of their campaigns and voters are paying more attention to the races.
In the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, Cabletron founder Craig Benson is pulling away from his opponents, former U.S. Senator Gordon Humphrey and former New Hampshire State Senator Bruce Keough. In the latest Granite State Poll, 43 percent of likely Republican primary voters plan to vote for Benson, 23 percent plan to vote for Humphrey, 15 percent favor former State Senator Bruce Keough, 6 percent favor some other candidate, and 13 percent are undecided. Support for Benson has steadily increased over the past six months. In the Winter 2002 Granite State Poll, only 20 percent of likely GOP primary voters favored Benson.
While support for Benson has increased, support for Humphrey continues to decline. In the Winter 2002 Granite State Poll, 37 percent of likely GOP primary voters favored Humphrey. Humphrey now faces the possibility of being passed by Keough, who has seen his support almost double from 8 percent in the Spring 2002 Granite State Poll to 15 percent now.
Humphrey’s slide can be tied to an increasingly unfavorable opinion of him in the eyes of New Hampshire voters. Currently, 32 percent of likely November voters say they have a favorable opinion of Humphrey, 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion, 10 percent are neutral, and 12 percent don’t know enough about him to say. Humphrey’s net favorability ratings, the percentage who have a favorable opinion of him minus the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion, have dropped from +8 percent in April to -14 percent.
Benson has also seen a slide in his favorability ratings, but not on the scale of Humphrey’s. Currently, 30 percent of likely November voters say they have a favorable opinion of Benson, 26 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, 11 percent are neutral and 34 percent say they don’t know enough about him to say. Benson’s net favorability rating is +4 percent, down from +10 percent in April. Keough is still relatively unknown to NH voters with 63 percent saying they don’t know enough about him to have an opinion. His net favorability rating stands at +6 percent, up from +2 percent in April.
Looking to November
The Granite State Poll also looked at potential match-ups in the November gubernatorial election to test the strength of the five candidates. In trial heats, Craig Benson leads both Mark Fernald and Bev Hollingworth by about 10 percentage points (47% to 36% versus Hollingworth, 48% to 35% versus Fernald). Bruce Keough and Mark Fernald are tied (37% to 37%) and Keough is slightly behind Hollingworth (40% to 35%). Gordon Humphrey fares worst among the potential Republican candidates and is currently trailing both Democratic candidates. Hollingworth currently holds a 49 percent to 38 percent lead over Humphrey and Fernald holds a 44 percent to 39 percent lead over Humphrey.
SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS
There are few demographic differences between supporters of both the GOP and Democratic candidates among their respective primary electorates.
Both Bev Hollingworth and Mark Fernald draw their strongest support among the November electorate from Democrats, Liberals, people with post-graduate educations, and people who do not attend church.
Craig Benson’s strongest support in November comes from Republicans, Conservatives, voters with lower levels of income, those with high school educations and regular church goers. Benson also does very well among undeclared (independent) voters compared to his potential Democratic challengers.
Gordon Humphrey gets his strongest support from Republicans, Conservatives, voters with high school educations and regular church goers. Undeclared voters split evenly between Humphrey and his potential Democratic challengers.
Bruce Keough get his strongest support from Republicans and Conservatives. Undeclared voters also split evenly between Keough and his Democratic challengers.
Granite State Poll Methodology
These findings are based on the most recent Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from June 23 to July 1, 2002. A random sample of 658 New Hampshire adults was interviewed by telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.8 percent. Results reported for other subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population. The margin of sampling error for likely November voters (N=529) is +/-4 percent. The margin of sampling error for likely GOP primary voters (N=230) is +/-6 percent and the margin of sampling error for likely Democratic primary voters (N=179) is +/-7 percent.
The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, region of the state, and likelihood of voting in either the September 10 NH Primary Election or the November 5 General Election. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response.
Other than silly "sign up for my brigage" logo (people might think he's a Buchanan-style candidate) The only problem I can see is he doesn't list his stance on abortion on his website. Considering New Hampshire is a conservative state (Benson clearly tells people he's pro-2nd amendment on that site), I wonder why not. My only guess is that his pro-life credentials aren't that good.
If any NH Freepers can vouch for this guy as a strong pro-life candidate, then by all means he deserves the nomination. We're in desperate need to replace some 'RAT governorships in November with all the vunerable GOP governors (including my own state, where the 'RATs are actually trying to associate the corrupt RINO governor with the current nominee, even though their candidate is far closer to the current governor's cronies).
On the abortion issue, I don't think there is statewide support to repeal Roe v. Wade. This is New England and not Alabama. Benson is a conservative Republican-- he broadcasts that exact phrase in his ads.
I feel badly for Gordon. He is a principled fellow who did well as a US Senator and a good man. His campaign, though, has reinforced the image of him as a nasty and unpleasant fellow. I wish he had focused just on the issues.
I still don't have a good handle on Keough.
Just not a big issue up here, IMO.
It all sounds great, doesn't it?
And therein lies the biggest problem with this poll. Included in the sample are a large number (proportionately speaking, for such a small sample) of people who never grace a polling place with their presence. This group is the most likely to be ignorant of any true issues, and to be influenced by advertising alone.
Conservatives should be above making their picks based on polling in any case...they should be making their choices based on principle.
For any person who is using the conservative agenda as their plumb-line, this race is a no-brainer...Gordon Humphrey is the best candidate by far.
Both Bensen and Keough are RINOs with big bucks who are simply trying to buy this thing.
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