Poll cited, derided: Strickland campaign sees tight race; Allard camp says no way [CO Senate]

Rocky Mountain News ^ | 9/13/02 | Lynn Bartels

[BlackRazor]

Poll cited, derided

Strickland campaign sees tight race; Allard camp says no way

By Lynn Bartels, Rocky Mountain News

September 13, 2002

Democrat Tom Strickland's latest poll shows he is only 2 percentage points behind Republican Wayne Allard and there is declining support for Allard's job performance.

That contrasts with a recent poll by Allard that shows he is leading Strickland by 11 points in the race for U.S. Senate.

"The Strickland campaign and their pollster apparently are smoking the same thing," Allard's campaign spokesman, Dick Wadhams, said Thursday.

The Strickland poll shows Allard with 38 percent to Strickland's 36 percent.

In addition, 20 percent of the voters were undecided and 6 percent supported Libertarian candidate Rick Stanley.

"We've always known that Sen. Allard was one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country, but we also know that an incumbent has amazing advantages," said Brian Hardwick, Strickland's campaign manager.

"This is continued evidence and this is encouraging."

Hardwick also said that this is the first time Allard has slipped below 40 percent.

In addition, he said Allard's overall job rating with voters is 38 percent positive - a 10-point drop since the first of the year.

Wadhams dismissed the findings. He said he couldn't believe Strickland could muster only 36 percent of the vote after spending $2 million for television ads.

The Allard poll was conducted by Hill Research Consultants of Texas over the Aug. 24-25 weekend.

The Strickland poll was conducted last weekend by Garin-Hart-Yang Research of Washington, D.C., among 602 Coloradans.

Both firms are very reputable, said Boulder pollster Paul Talmey.

So how come they came up with different results?

Talmey said it depends on the sample group, the kinds of questions asked and other variables.

A Talmey poll in August showed Allard had an 8-point lead over Strickland, but 18 percent of the voters were undecided.

[BlackRazor]

This polling isn't really much different than what we've seen all along out of the Strickland camp. A June Dem poll had Strickland within 43-42, and a July Dem poll had him within 43-40. The most recent independent poll (from early August) has this an 8-point race, and I believe that's still just about correct.

[Coop]

Yeah, basically all the polling has shown Strickland in the mid 30s and Allard in the mid to low 40s (obviously still vulnerable). Now, as people start paying attention and we get closer to the election, I'm supposed to believe Allard has lost 5-7 points? With nothing major happening to him? At first glance I can see why they're dismissive of this poll.

[Coop]

Interestingly the last two campaign polls - one for Allard, this one for Strickland - were both polling adults (vs. RV or LV) over the weekend. Hardly considered the most accurate of polling. :-)