Posted on 10/07/2002 7:09:30 AM PDT by BlackRazor
GOP poll gives Monteith small lead
Monday, October 7, 2002
By Daniel Velton
According to a poll commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee and state Sen. Dick Monteith, R-Modesto, Monteith is slightly ahead in the race for the 18th Congressional District seat.
The poll results, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.65 percent, where challenged by a staff member for Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza, D-Merced, who is running against Monteith.
The pollster reported that if the election had been held last week, Monteith would have received about 42 percent of the vote, while Cardoza would have received about 36 percent. About 21 percent of the people contacted said they were "undecided."
The pollster released a memorandum about some poll questions and responses but not about others. Bob Rucker, a spokesman for Monteith, said Sunday night that he did not know how many other questions were asked, what the questions said or what the responses were.
Mahoney, Strimple, Goncharenko LLC of New York City said it questioned 300 "likely voters" in the 18th District by phone last Tuesday and Wednesday.
Monteith's campaign paid half of the cost of the polling.
Cardoza's staff on Sunday questioned how accurately the poll results reflect the district's voters.
Steve Haro, Cardoza's communications director, said, "Everything leads me to believe this was a push poll." He said, "These numbers are nowhere near our numbers."
Haro was referring to one of the poll items that indicates 46 percent of respondents identified themselves as conservative, about 31 percent said they were moderate and about 16 percent called themselves liberal. The remaining 7 percent did not respond.
Haro said, "We know that more than 50 percent of the district is Democratic and most of them consider themselves moderates."
Rucker said the poll sample was specifically chosen to reflect a cross section of the district's voting population.
He said about 50 percent of the people asked were Democrats, and about 40 percent were Republicans. Of the 300 people interviewed, about 100 were from Merced County, according to Rucker.
He said the fact that the poll indicated 46 percent of the people were conservative "shows that a lot of Democrats are conservative."
When asked about the pollster, Rucker said, "He's done all of our polling since 1998."
Haro described the poll as a political ploy.
"I think Monteith's campaign is trying to drum up a little fear in us," he said, "just to see if we'll sink down to their tactics... . This is the standard tactic of a losing candidate running scared."
The poll also asked people whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Monteith and Cardoza.
Both candidates received about 33 percent "favorable." About 24 percent said they have an unfavorable opinion of Cardoza and about 12 percent said they have an unfavorable opinion of Monteith, according to the pollster.
About 31 percent said they think Monteith will cut taxes if elected and about 17 percent said they think Cardoza will cut taxes if he wins.
I'd take this one with a shaker full of salt. This is a partisan poll with a large margin of error.
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
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