Congressional race too close to call [CA-18]

Merced Sun-Star ^ | 11/1/02 | Mike Jensen

[BlackRazor]

Congressional race too close to call

Friday, November 1, 2002

By Mike Jensen

The 18th Congressional District race between Dennis Cardoza and Dick Monteith is so close that it may actually be a dead heat.

And there are enough undecided voters to swing the election either way, according to an independent poll of 400 district residents who are likely to vote.

The poll, conducted by A & A Research, was commissioned by the Merced Sun-Star.

Assemblyman Cardoza, D-Merced, could have a "slight lead" over his opponent, state Sen. Monteith, R-Modesto, according to E. B. Eiselein, the research director who conducted the poll.

Eiselein said it is possible that the "slight lead" is part of the 5 percent margin of error in the poll. Also, he said, it could reflect the fact that more Democrats than Republicans were surveyed.

He said 36 percent of voters said they would vote for Cardoza, and 31 percent said they would vote for Monteith. About 49 percent of those polled said they were Democrats, while 34 percent said they were Republicans.

Cardoza, 43, leads Monteith, 70, in the 18-35 age group, according to the poll. About 41 percent said they would vote for him and 15 percent said they would vote for Monteith.

In the 35-54 age group, 35 percent said they would vote for Monteith, while 31 percent said they would vote for Cardoza. In the 55 and over age group, both candidates were backed by 38 percent of those polled.

Eiselein, in commenting on the election outcome, said, "It could be a dead heat. ... Both candidates need to really keep cranking. It's not a done deal."

Spokesmen for the two campaigns said they aren't surprised by the figures.

Bob Rucker, Monteith's campaign manager, said, "We know it's a close race. And we know Dick (Monteith) is going to win."

Cardoza spokesman Steve Haro said "I think this shows me that we are in control of this race, and come next Wednesday, there's going to be a Congressman Cardoza."

A & A Research is based in Kalispell, Mont., and it works mainly for newspapers. It does not conduct polls for candidates or political groups.

The interviews were conducted by phone between 5 and 9:30 p.m. Oct. 27-28.

Questions were asked in random order, and the calls were randomly placed by a computer.

Twenty-eight percent of those contacted said they are undecided. "That's enough to swing (the election) either way," said Eiselein.

According to the poll, 35 percent said that Cardoza has a better record in meeting the needs of the Central Valley, while 29 percent said Monteith has the better record. About 36 percent said they didn't know.

Also, 30 percent said Cardoza has done a better job of discussing the campaign issues, while 21 percent said Monteith has done a better job. About 49 percent said they don't know.

When asked, "Which candidate has done the most negative campaigning?" 19 percent said Monteith and 17 percent said Cardoza. About 65 percent said they didn't know who had done the most negative campaigning.

The survey also gave various topics and asked who would "do the best job." The topics and responses:

* Social Security, 36 percent for Cardoza, 28 percent for Monteith.

* The War on Terror: 30 percent for Monteith, 25 percent for Cardoza.

* Support for the University of California, Merced: 38 percent for Cardoza, 18 percent for Monteith.

* Air quality: 35 percent for Cardoza, 24 percent for Monteith.

Of the Democrats polled, 49 percent said they favor Cardoza, 15 percent said they favor Monteith and 20 percent said they were undecided.

Of the Republicans, 57 percent said they favor Monteith, 17 percent said the favor Cardoza and 24 percent said they were undecided.

Eiselein, in summarizing the results, said the election "should be really close."

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

For quite awhile this one was assumed to be safely in the Democrats' camp. Over the last couple of weeks, though, there's been something of a buzz that it might actually still be in play. I saw Charlie Cook on C-Span earlier this week, and he said something to the effect of:

Due to the drawing of the CA-18 district lines, Cardoza should win this race easily. However, he's run a horrible campaign, and has allowed it to be close. If Monteith wins, he said it would be entirely Cardoza's fault. (If I remember right, Cook commented on this race after someone asked him to remark on whether Bill Simon had run the worst campaign in the country this year. I think Cook thinks it is Cardoza who holds that honor.)

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

[Coop]

The buzz has been around even longer than the last couple of weeks. But now the polls are starting to show some evidence that Monteith has a shot at this thing.

[KQQL]

@

[Torie]

The subset for the under 35 group is a hoot. I didn't know young people in the Valley were liberals.