[JNB]

Thanks for the informative post. Unless the economy completely implodes(I think the economy is in trouble but I also think they can keep things at bay for the next 18 months as well), the Dems will have a more difficult time winning states like MI. In the 2000 election, one thing that hurt Bush was the stigma among suburban "moderates" that the GOP gained because of the Gov shutdown and impeachment. These PR mis steps(I think the GOP was right in both cases but Ginrich and Armey were horrid PR wise) cost the GOP at least 5-10% of the suburban vote.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Good breakdown. I wish I could do the same for TN, but we aren't in any danger of not delivering this state to Dubya. You gotta stop being scared of Graham, he's yesterday's news and if he chooses to run for reelection, might not win again. Let's pray for a Sharpton win. He'll do boffo in Detroit and scare the $hit out of the straights in the sticks.

[apackof2]

Bump

thanks Dan, good job

Also helpful, as I am looking into up north property to buy for retirement

Defintely don't want to live in a "blue zone" county!

[Dan from Michigan]

Ping

[Amish]

Good assessment. As a Calhoun resident with family in Allegan, I would be surprised not to see Bush totals increasing in each.

Of course hard to foretell what the situations/issues will be almost a year and a half out, but would expect 2004 to be more like 1972 than like 1992. Demo. core will pull left, alienate more than they will attract. Bush will hang in there and perhaps even pull along some surprises like the Illinois senate race (Jack Ryan? perhaps), as well as others which are now seen as more likely (Ga. Senate- Collins, or even Cain--in a three way race, I'd currently put Collins as favorite).

[Dan from Michigan]

[CSM]

"Dearborn is very unpredictable in the next election with the Mideast situation and the Arabs there."

The Arabs were celebrating the fall of SH in the streets. If that is any indication, I would say that Bush has strong Arab support.