(Just kidding. But what a name to run on! Did his parents know he was going to go into politics?)
Posted on 10/13/2003 11:10:35 AM PDT by Pubbie
WASHINGTON — Maybe someone out there knows what Sen. Bob Graham is going to do now that his presidential campaign has ended and his Senate seat is up for grabs in 2004.
But the odds are that the only people who have a strong sense of Graham's next step are his wife, Adele, and his four daughters. After all, this is the same man who announced his decision on the presidency last week on CNN's "Larry King Live" to the shock of many members of his senior campaign staff.
Graham spokesman Paul Anderson still expects his decision on the Senate race will come in "days not weeks," leading many to expect the full-scale start of the election year as early as this week. Whatever Graham decides will not only resonate around the Sunshine State but throughout the entire Democratic Party and its chances of taking back power in the Senate.
Graham has spent the past week decompressing with friends and family, and rumors of a pending announcement have been commonplace in Florida and the nation's capital. Yet campaign staffs, party members and experts are still in the dark as to what he will say.
"It's kind of hard to figure," said Jennifer Duffy, who tracks the Senate race for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "Everybody in Washington thinks he's not going to run and everybody in Florida thinks he is."
Sure, Democratic leaders have been calling the state's senior senator to let him know they support whatever decision he makes. But they've also taken a moment to just mention how the party really could use his help.
With Republicans holding just 51 of the 100 seats in the Senate and several Democratic incumbents retiring in the South, a candidate with Graham's name recognition and resume — 17 years as a U.S. senator and eight as Florida's governor — is seen as a key in any map that shows the Democrats winning back the Senate.
"He really would not have to rely on us for money or support like another nominee might, and we could really concentrate our resources in defending our open seats and trying to knock off our Republican opponents," said Brad Woodhouse, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Aside from national leaders, Florida Democratic Party Chairman Scott Maddox and Sen. Bill Nelson both have made pitches to Graham in the past week, urging him to stick around Washington. While both said Graham did not share his intentions, Nelson told the Miami Lakes Democrat of the support he has heard about his colleague while traveling Florida for a series of town meetings last week.
"When I say to the group in the town hall: 'It is my hope and my expectation that Sen. Graham will run again for re-election to the Senate,' spontaneously the audience will burst out into applause," said Nelson, D-Melbourne.
The options
Graham will have just turned 68 at the end of his current Senate term. Another six years in the Senate would effectively close out most of his career options.
He is said to be considering a vice presidential nod or a Cabinet position in a Democratic administration, although to do that, he would either have to vacate his seat or leave the race after the deadline for other Democrats to enter. Both scenarios could lead to Gov. Jeb Bush appointing a Republican senator to serve out his term.
Graham could not run and take one of three likely tracks. He could hope to be named to one of the aforementioned posts, go into an entirely different field such as teaching, or he could retire and spend time with his family.
So why do it? Why would Graham subject himself to another term in the Senate, which has been marked by its acrimony of late, especially if he would remain in the minority?
"Politics is like an addiction," said Jim Kane of the Florida Voter Poll. "The reason many officials stay in office for so long is getting used to the power they have and that is difficult to give up."
Graham might have more goals he still wants to try to achieve in Congress, he added.
Beyond party loyalty in trying to achieve a Democratic majority in the Senate, there's also the legacy issue. Graham's poor presidential showing could leave a sour taste in the mouth of a man who has never lost an election since entering politics in 1966.
"He may be thinking, 'I don't want this to be the last chapter in my biography,'" Duffy said.
What happens next
The domino effect of such a decision on the Democratic side is clear. Those running or considering a run — Reps. Peter Deutsch, Allen Boyd, Alcee Hastings; former state education commissioner Betty Castor; and Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas — all have said they will drop out if Graham runs.
The Republican candidates still flirting with a run could re-examine the idea of jumping into the race. But the four announced candidates say they have always expected Graham to enter the race. State GOP executive director Geoffrey Becker sees the only departures coming because a candidate couldn't raise money, not because of a fear of Graham.
David Johnson, chief campaign strategist for state Sen. Daniel Webster, believes the long-held idea "that Graham is invincible is a myth."
In fact, the field believes the positions Graham has staked out on his presidential bid have been so divisive and so far off from most Florida voters that some actually relish the idea of facing him instead of the current candidates.
"Graham would really get my juices flowing in a sense because I've been outraged to watch him demagogue the terrorism issue," said former government watchdog and Senate candidate Larry Klayman, noting the ex-chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee has "blood on his hands" because he was privy to much of the same information as the president.
Most analysts believe the senator shifted left during the campaign to win primary voters and that his comments on Iraq (most notably saying President Bush should be impeached for misrepresenting what the administration knew before the war) will come back to haunt him.
"Most people believe he's considerably more vulnerable by the way he conducted himself," said former congressman Bill McCollum, who, along with Florida House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, rounds out the field of announced Republican candidates. "He's not the Bob Graham that I knew and that's the way that a lot of people feel."
Anderson, Graham's spokesman, said the senator's stances have not been "unduly partisan and strident" and were simply pointing out problems with the administration's economic and post-war plans.
"Those were not partisan positions," he said. "They are firmly held beliefs."
Tactically, Graham's inclusion in the race allows the Republicans to focus the vitriol on him and not on each other during the primary — something they would not be able to do with a field of five Democratic candidates.
Still, political experts believe Graham would have a slight advantage, albeit a tougher campaign than his previous runs for the Senate, and his presence in the race would still be a cause for concern among the Republicans. McCollum, the last Republican Senate nominee who lost an open seat to Nelson in 2000, conceded that idea.
"I don't know anybody who would rather run against an incumbent than have an open seat," he said. "An incumbent is always more of a challenge."
(Just kidding. But what a name to run on! Did his parents know he was going to go into politics?)
And I hope this is NOT a lesson the Democrats ever learn. The more they harp and smear and complain and spew hate, the better it is for Bush. People don't like the negative politics but the hard-core Dems never learn.
Hope he runs a good race and wins. Graham has been getting kookier and kookier, and probably will be certifiable in a few years. Who keeps a diary all day long about what he wears and what he eats? That's nuts!
Murray bin Ladin (D-WA) can be taken down if a good candiate can be found (she has high, high negatives). Schumer (D-NY) is vulnerable if Guiliani runs against him. And I think Daschle (D-SD) is also vulnerable if a well-funded and nationally supported Republican runs against him.
I would have agreed with NV had Gibbons run. As it stands now, it looks like it's going to be a second or third-tier candidate. I think for once, Reid is safe.
A 3 seat pickup would loosen the 'rat chokehold on Seanate business. A 5 seat pickup along with W landslide would force the Democratic Party to reconstitute or go Green.
I guess the complaint and press release fund raising con isn't paying like it used to.
The changing demographics of Nevada, with a growing suburban population in the Las Vegas and Reno/Carson city area is good news for Republicans. A lots of small businessmen have relocated to NV as well. Reid only won his election 5 years ago by fewer than 500 votes - and he was the incumbent!
I think Thune won the last election! Daschle does not have the advantage of majority leadership this time around. His money sources will not be as likely to fund him to the hilt. Thune, or another Republican, helped by the Republican Senate campaign can take this seat if they make the effort. And a sweet win it would be too.
I'm not on the east coast, so I can't say what the buzz is about Rudy, but if he did run, he would wipe out that pompous a$$ Chuckie. Rudy needs to strike while he holds the advantage. With Rudy and GW Bush on the same ticket, the 'Pubs could even take NY State in 2004!
Paul Laxalt! ;^)
If he lasts as long as Strom, he'd have another 18 good years!
Graham would really get my juices flowing in a sense because I've been outraged to watch him demagogue the terrorism issue," said former government watchdog and Senate candidate Larry Klayman, noting the ex-chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee has "blood on his hands" because he was privy to much of the same information as the president. <
If one were supporting the President's position, this is not the correct term to use. Just a heads up for you guys.
The democrats have several other seats that are not rock-solid locks. For instance, Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark) comes to mind. The Louisiana seat of John Breaux (D) is safe if he stays on (fairly conservative democrat - as democrats go), but if he retires, it's anybody's guess. And what about Byron Dorgan in North Dakota. Bush carried that state by over 20% in November 2000. If GW brings that margin again, there might be coattails for a qualified Republican challenger.
Although I'm still looking at a 3 or 4 seat Republican Senate gain, if Bush gets it all together with a good economy and job creation on the rise, the underpinnings of a 1964-style landslide are there.
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