Chinese Manned Space Launch (live thread as situation develops)

But Beijing decides against live telecast; preparations veiled in traditional secrecy

JIUQUAN, China, Oct. 15 — Keeping his identity secret, China prepared its first astronaut for space travel Tuesday and loaded his rocket with fuel — but said the public and the world would have to wait to learn whether the flight succeeds. The Communist Party newspaper People’s Daily said the launch would “most probably” happen Wednesday morning, which translates to Tuesday evening ET.

STATE TELEVISION scrapped plans for a live broadcast of the launch. A Hong Kong newspaper said the cancellation was prompted by fears of the “political risks” of something going wrong. A successful flight would make China the third nation to put a human into space on its own — a propaganda prize in which communist leaders have invested 11 years of secretive preparation and untold resources. Communist leaders hope the history-making launch will boost China’s standing abroad and, more important, help the party’s image among a populace weary of corruption and other abuses. The three finalists to become China’s first “taikonaut” (TYE’-koh-nawt) were reportedly waiting at a Gobi Desert launch base near this dusty city of concrete apartment buildings in the remote northwest. Security was tight around the remote base, some 175 miles (280 kilometers) northeast of Jiuquan: Cars were turned back and phone calls to the base were blocked. “It’s a big thing for the country,” said Zhang Ming, a man buying a leather jacket in Jiuquan on Tuesday.

WHO WILL FLY? The astronaut candidates, all fighter pilots, were to undergo final tests as little as one hour before the flight, state media said. The government’s Xinhua News Agency has said the “No. 1 astronaut” among them would go up — the strongest sign yet that the flight will carry only one person. People’s Daily said the Shenzhou 5 capsule had completed its own final tests and, on Tuesday, was “sitting on the launch pad with more fuel being injected.” It said top Chinese leaders, including President Hu Jintao, were to attend the launch.

“The launch of Shenzhou 5 is long-awaited by the Chinese people,” said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue. She said the flight was a key step in the “peaceful development of space” — a reflection of China’s effort to reassure the world that its military-linked program is benign. The Shenzhou, or “Divine Vessel,” is based on the three-seat Russian Soyuz capsule, though with extensive modifications. China also paid Moscow to train at least two astronauts. But Beijing insists everything sent into space will be developed and made in China. State media, trying to dispel suggestions that its triumph depends on foreign know-how, refer to Shenzhou as “China’s self-designed manned spaceship.” Xinhua quoted space officials Tuesday assuring the public that the astronauts’ spacesuits were safe and the Long March CZ-2 F booster was China’s “best rocket.”

CONFIDENCE AND CONCERN After months of official silence, the government showed growing confidence over the past week, announcing that the flight would blast off sometime between Wednesday and Friday and splashing pictures of the once-secret launch base across newspapers. Advertisement

But the decision to cancel a live broadcast suggested leaders might be unnerved by the thought of the propaganda disaster that an accident could produce. The People’s Daily Web site gave no explanation for the decision to cancel. China used to broadcast satellite launches live, but stopped in 1995 after a rocket blew up moments after liftoff, reportedly killing six people on the ground. The Shenzhou 5 launch comes after four test launches of unmanned capsules that orbited the Earth for nearly a week before parachuting back to China’s northern grasslands. State media say the manned flight is expected to last 14 orbits or about 20 hours. State television planned to broadcast taped scenes of the launch only if it succeeds, the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post said, citing “media sources.” State-run China Central Television would not confirm the report. “There might be a live broadcast, or there might not,” a CCTV spokeswoman, who refused to give her name, told The Associated Press. “CCTV employees aren’t allowed to answer that question.”

DECISION CRITICIZED Dozens of messages left on Chinese Web sites taunted officials for their decision and demanded that the government show its people the historic launch as it happens. Such sites are monitored by censors who enforce official rules on content and sometimes erase postings, which suggested the negative postings were genuine. “The decision is very idiotic and reflects our nation’s lack of confidence,” said a note on the popular Sina.com Web site, signed Flyying111. The Gansu Daily, published in the provincial capital, Lanzhou, welcomed the imminent launch. “Finally,” it said, “the time has come to realize the 1,000-year dream of flying dreamed by the sons and daughters of China.”

I'm surprised there isn't anything at Global Security about this launch. This has only been last updated since their Satellite Launches.

Security Concerns With Technology Transfer

Although China has developed a robust space system, they do not have as sophisticated systems as the U. S. China has not developed the systems that allow precise orbit insertion, nor do their rockets have capabilities to control the rates of burn. Finally, China has not refined the capability to measure and control levels of stress placed on satellites. Controlling these forces would allow more sophisticated satellites to be placed in orbit. Because satellites provided by U. S. companies do possess these types of technology, the U. S. was concerned with the potential transfer of technology that might accompany China launching any U. S.-made satellites.

The U. S. concern is divided into two areas, although they are somewhat intertwined; the first concerns advances China might make to its own civilian launch systems. The second is the applications these advances could have to military systems that China might not only use, but also export to rogue nation-states such as Iraq, Iran, and North Korea. Launching a satellite is a very technically complicated activity. China has not independently developed all of its competence in this area. China's technology transfer process has taken on added urgency and a new form with the current windfall of Russian scientists and engineers now working in large numbers for various Chinese interests. By standing on the shoulders of Russia, the United States, Japan, and others, China hopes to more quickly overcome what remains a huge technology lag.

To counter just this type of transfer, the U. S. has restricted the types of satellites that can be launched by China and placed restrictions on how even those satellites must be safeguarded. The U. S. is concerned that China might make technology advances that would allow them to compete more strongly in the space market, further impacting the U. S. space launch business. Of more a national security concern is the impact pirated U. S. technology might have on China's military rockets. Under U. S. law, the administration must restrict any activity that threatens the non-proliferation guidelines of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

Therefore, negotiations were conducted to determine what China could expect in marketing her space launch capabilities to U. S. companies. As a result, restrictions were placed to limit the number of U. S. satellites China could launch, as well as the type of satellites. One area of concern is the technology associated with the launching of the Iridium satellites, discussed earlier, and the application this could have to multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicle (MIRV) warheads. Several of these satellites will be launched simultaneously on one rocket and must be dispensed accurately in different orbits. Western satellite vendors will need to support Chinese development of this capability to ensure the correct placement of the satellites. This technology is directly relevant to the development of MIRV'ed missile systems. It is considered a direct application from accurate satellite placement to accurate MIRV launching.

Another area of concern is the development of the apogee kick motor, designed to boost a satellite from geosynchronous transfer orbit (usually an elliptical orbit about 600 miles high) up to geosynchronous orbit (about 22,300 miles high). Since the Chinese kick motor has no flexible nozzle to direct or correct the vector of the rocket's existing gases, its solid rocket propellant must be configured with great care to have exactly the right grain structure and be shaped to produce exactly the right amount of thrust for exactly the right amount of time. It is hardly surprising that the Western firms associated with these Chinese-launched satellites want to validate or certify the propellant and witness Chinese test firings of the kick motor. Yet such certification will not only help China make satellite upper stages for civilian customers, it will also help China make much more reliable, efficient military solid-rocket motors than the first generation systems it currently has.

Finally, all U. S. satellites to be sold to China are likely to come with integration analysis to make sure that Chinese launcher systems are suitable and properly mated with each satellite. This analysis is critical to assure that a given space launcher performs (for example, ignites, separates its individual stages, and cuts off its motors or engines) without shaking or shattering its sensitive payload. This load analysis helps assure the successful launch of civilian satellites. But it can also be used for military launches. Transferring this knowledge would directly assist China to develop advanced, highly accurate MIRVs for its long-range ballistic missiles. 49 As can be seen, China could certainly make advances in its military systems. If this was not enough to concern the U. S., China has sold their present missile systems and missile technology to several nation-states aligned against U. S. national interests. These states include Iraq, Iran, and North Korea, so the U. S. feels justified in the concerns it has as well as the restrictions it imposes on China.

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