Presidential review on space policy heading to closure

spaceref.com ^ | 28 Oct 03 | Frank Sietzen, Jr

[RightWhale]

Presidential review on space policy heading to closure

Frank Sietzen, Jr., Tuesday, October 28, 2003

WASHINGTON - The year-long review of future directions for the U.S. space program is rapidly drawing towards selection of a policy path, Spacelift Washington has learned from sources close to the deliberations.

The final result may be a presidential announcement of the new space goal in a national address at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina on December 17, 2003, the 100th anniversary of the Wright Brother's first heavier-than-air powered flight.

According to sources familiar with the White House review, the current plan-subject to change at any time the sources say-is for a final recommendation to the president by November 30th "or shortly thereafter", followed by insertion of the goal into the speech and development of timetables and supporting budgets.

Sources tell this column that last week's meetings in both the Senate and House by Vice President Dick Cheney heard no suggestions that would deflect the current discussions, which have been held by a small group of Bush administration insiders with few staff.

The White House policy meetings, which began in earnest last summer, have included but not been limited to NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and others, including DoD Technology czar Dr. Ron Sega and at least two outside individuals not connected to either the administration or the space industry.

As of late October, sources indicate that a central recommendation is likely, but not certainly to be resumption of manned lunar flights to develop advanced technologies that can support U.S. astronauts working beyond Earth orbit to not only the Moon, but eventually on near-Earth asteroids and Mars.

In an early phase of the meetings, manned Mars expeditions were considered too expensive and risky to adopt as a central goal for the civil space program. But Bush is being urged to factor in future interplanetary manned flight capabilities as part of the justification for a return to the moon. The last U.S. manned lunar mission was conducted by the Apollo 17 crew in December, 1972.

Sources indicate the policy review has been a deliberative process "not driven by any crash program mentality" but focused on how a new major manned space goal could both mobilize the U.S. space industry as well as boost morale at NASA. One person who spoke directly with Bush early in the process said the president was initially skeptical that a manned return to the Moon could be conducted for reasonable costs. Bush allegedly said then that he would not seek a massive increase of space spending.

Throughout the summer and fall, multiple groups in what was described as very small numbers have been exploring various options for new goals. Among those studied, sources say were a replacement vehicle for the space shuttle fleet, manned Moon bases and missions to Mars. An effort was also made to study how robotic missions and systems could either adjunct or replace manned flights. Strengthening of unmanned missions is also believed to be among the goals Bush is likely to order NASA to pursue.

One attendee described the current process as a 'slicing and dicing' of options into an architecture that could yield significant results within a decade without a massive increase to the NASA budget topline. An annual budget rise in the vicinity of seven to ten percent has been used as a yardstick for the planning, sources said.

If Bush does commit to a new major space policy goal, it will follow the last set of goals announced on July 20, 1989-by his father, George H.W. Bush. Other than completion of the space station, none of the goals announced then were developed into successful programs.

[RightWhale]

George H. W. Bush said we would go to Mars. But maybe we will see NASA astronauts doing things on the moon again. No hurry so long as they have a program of some kind. Anything is better than the past 30 years of nothing.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

As of late October, sources indicate that a central recommendation is likely, but not certainly to be resumption of manned lunar flights to develop advanced technologies that can support U.S. astronauts working beyond Earth orbit to not only the Moon, but eventually on near-Earth asteroids and Mars.

Next, Go Back To The Moon

[RightWhale]

Maybe you saw this already

[Cincinatus]

George H. W. Bush said we would go to Mars

He actually said that we should "return to the Moon -- this time to stay." Then he said that we should go to Mars. Made sense then, makes sense now.

NASA killed SEI as much as anybody. The paranoids at the agency thought it might weaken support for Station and hence, leaked outrageously inflated cost estimates in the press to build up resistance to the idea. I hope they've learned their lesson now. But I doubt it.

[RightWhale]

leaked outrageously inflated cost estimates

That they did. Made the average man on the street think that anybody could go to Mars cheaper than NASA could.

[RightWhale]

Rutans on the moon?

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Ground crew carry U.S. astronaut Edward Lu after a safe landing near Arkalyk, Kazakhstan, October 28, 2003. A three-man crew which has been manning the International Space Station for six months, touched down on Earth safely and on target. hoto by Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters

NASA's workforce - NASA's mission?***NASA has serious personnel problems. Twenty-five percent of its scientists and engineers will be eligible to retire in the next three to five years, and, as the agency's workforce has been graying, few fresh-faced recruits have been coming through its doors. NASA needs to offer incentives to potential hires.***

[Brett66]

This is great news, I hope they leave a module open for private companies if/when they set up a lunar base.

[RightWhale]

They will involve the private sector in the usual way, no doubt, by letting contracts. Thus, Boeing will build aluminum cans habitation modules, Thiokol will build big noisy motors, Raytheon will build devices of obscure purpose, etc. NASA builds nothing, but of course somebody has to count the beans.

[Brett66]

I would hope they use inflatable modules on it. It makes total sense, but NASA had that option on the ISS and couldn't do it because of budget overruns.

[irv]

Anything is better than the past 30 years of nothing.

Anything except the ISS. Even that could have been useful at one time, but it's too late now.

This is encouraging. I'm not sure how encouraging. I guess we'll see in December.

[KevinDavis]

Space Ping! This is the space ping list! Let me know if you want on or off this list!

[Flightdeck]

"NASA builds nothing,"

Well.. They built the launchpad didn't they? Vehicle Assembly Building maybe?

[RightWhale]

No. Everything is contracted out.

[risk]

BTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!