[Congressman Billybob]

The premise of Carl Sagon is that there must be advanced civilizations in the universe, because there are "billions and billions" of stars. Some of those billions have planets capable of supporting life on the carbon cycle, the nitrogen cycle, or some other cycle. And some of those billions of planets have been stable for millions of years longer than our relatively new Earth.

However, Henrico Fermi pointed out the flaw in this argument, half a century ago. He said to take as a given all that predecessors of Sagan were saying decades ago. If all that is true, these greater civilizations would have already spread throughout the Universe. Fermi asked, simply, "Why aren't they here?"

The only logical way to reconcile Sagan's math with Fermi's observation is the Mead principle (also found in the Federation's constitution), the principle of "non-interference." The conclusion that higher civilizations have already found us, concluded that we are a Type 0 civilization, and have chosen to leave us alone until the millenia have passed and we have become a glatactically-civilized civilization. That makes sense to me.

Congressman Billybob

Latest column, "Open Judicial Mouth, Insert Foot," discussion thread. IF YOU WANT A FREEPER IN CONGRESS, CLICK HERE.

[js1138]

Klaatu Barada Nikto

[Ogmios]

...alone until the millenia have passed and we have become a glatactically-civilized civilization

Yeah, like that's gonna happen...

Sorry, don't mean to sound negative about that, because I wholeheartedly agree with that assumption, but the fact is at the rate we are going, the terrorists will make darn sure that there is no peace in our time, and will do their best to kick us back to the 12th century.

As long as we are killing each other off in such droves, they are going to keep to themselves.

We must look like a bunch of barbarian savages to any that might be watching.

[PatrickHenry]

The only logical way to reconcile Sagan's math with Fermi's observation is the Mead principle

There are more explanations than that. Google on "Fermi paradox" and you'll find a rather large literature on the subject.

[Physicist]

The only logical way to reconcile Sagan's math with Fermi's observation is the Mead principle (also found in the Federation's constitution), the principle of "non-interference." The conclusion that higher civilizations have already found us, concluded that we are a Type 0 civilization, and have chosen to leave us alone until the millenia have passed and we have become a glatactically-civilized civilization. That makes sense to me.

Well, it's not the only way to reconcile it. Perhaps the distance between civilizations is large compared to their speed of propagation. Or perhaps--and I think this is the correct answer--civilizations just don't last very long.

[Little Ray]

Actually there is some question as to whether or not "billions and billions" are relevant. In Alchemy of the Heavens ( http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0385472145/qid=1067894396/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/104-8385362-0586309 ) the authors suggest that the conditions that gave rise to (allegedly) intelligent life on Earth may be vanishingly rare. Basically the gas giants of the Solar System and the Moon act as a giant broom reducing the frequency of environment-altering impacts.
Intellgent life may be vary rare indeed.

[dead]

The only logical way to reconcile Sagan's math with Fermi's observation is the Mead principle (also found in the Federation's constitution), the principle of "non-interference."

That’s not the only logical way to reconcile the conundrum.

Another reasonable explanation could be that the distances involved in interstellar (let alone intergallactic) travel is not as easily overcome in the real world as it is in the realm of science fiction.

In other words, they are out there (or were or will be) and we’ll never know about them. And vice versa.

[Drammach]

Rather than the principle of non-interference, I suggest the priciple of non-interest..

We are simply beneath their notice.
Someone, I forget who, once suggested that will be thousands, possibly millions of years before we finally meet intelligent life in our universe.
That person then added that they will be so far beyond us, they will not even notice we are there, regardless of all our accomplishments and scientific advances.

If an advanced civilisation were to notice us, (say, a type 3) they would probably note that as a species of life, we fall within expected parameters, and having classified us, move on.
Even we humans, in our limited capacity tend to ignore anything that could not possibly challenge our existence.
I guess, in comparison, that puts humanity somewhere below viruses and bacterium.

[Al Simmons]

Good Point, Congressman. The above fanciful paper forgets several things that may fatally hamstring the "evolution" of said hypothesis:

a. Human Nature;

b. Human Nature;

c. The proliferation of basic stupidity;

d. The resultant proliferation of socialist utopias;

e. Human nature;

f. The Rapture

(Not necessarily in order of importance).

[Reeses]

For intelligent life to form it probably requires a lower life form to develop a war making disposition. War is in effect unnaturally fast evolution. Without it, development is too slow and a meteor would reset life. The reason we can't find any intelligent life out there is probably because the universe is a very bad neighborhood. They are hiding. Some advanced civilization may have already seen The Jerry Springer Show and lobbed a black hole missile in our direction.

[BlueNgold]

But .. what if we are the most advanced?

[Quix]

I just got the DVD from the DISCLOSURE PROJECT. It includes the briefing hand delivered to every congressman etc.

Did you view it? Did you read any of it? What's your response?

I'm planning to post some excerpts on one of the recent UFO threads when I get around to it.

[Windsong]

"The only logical way to reconcile Sagan's math with Fermi's observation is the Mead principle (also found in the Federation's constitution), the principle of "non-interference." The conclusion that higher civilizations have already found us..."

Actually, I believe they're called "Angels" (or Archangels, Cherubs, Sephirim etc).

"As far as the Heavens are above the earth, so are My ways above your ways"

[RightWhale]

Why aren't they here? It's easy. They have been through the neighborhood several times. Each civilization burns brightly for a million years or less, and then burns out. We don't see any suspicious activities at the moment, but our own. If we achieve access to outer space, which we could have done already 1/4 century ago, we could spread throughout the galaxy in 1 million years. And that would also be about the end of it. In 10 million years maybe another civilization would repeat the process.

In other words, we don't seem to see them because they aren't here at the moment.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Or, these species decided that they are scared the hell of us, and have decided as long as we DON'T get into space, and we DON'T know that they exist, we will remain safely isolated from destroying them.

And I'm only partially pulling your leg......8<)

[aruanan]

There's also the matter of probability. Whatever the improbability of life arising on its own on earth and evolving to the present level of complexity, the probability of a two such forms of life arising on their own elsewhere and achieving a similar level of civilization is the first improbability squared. For three such civilizations, the probability is the first cubed and so on. The likelihood is that we're all there is.

[Moonman62]

The only logical way to reconcile Sagan's math with Fermi's observation is the Mead principle (also found in the Federation's constitution), the principle of "non-interference."

Yeah, but Captain Kirk was always violating that principle, especially if there were pretty girls.