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Largest Solar Flare Ever Recorded (X30-X40) DOES have an Earth-Directed Component
Solar-Terrestrial Dispatch Mailing List ^

Posted on 11/04/2003 6:04:19 PM PST by John H K

The X18+ solar flare has been associated with a high velocity FULL HALO coronal mass ejection. There IS an Earthward directed component. Estimated plane of sky velocity for this event is 2381 km/sec, although it is probable the true velocity is above 2400 km/sec because there is some evidence for acceleration of the CME.

True x-ray intensity is unknown, but is probably near the X30 x-ray level (possibly between X30 and X40). VERY impressive event! Definitely one for the record books.

We have no idea yet when this one might impact the Earth or how strong the impact might be. We're waiting for a bit more data to arrive before we start the number crunching.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: flare; signsandwonders; solarflare; solarflare2003; solarflares; sun
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To: John H K
Gaaaah! Only one thing to do!


41 posted on 11/04/2003 7:14:52 PM PST by Luke Skyfreeper
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To: Marie Antoinette
Aurora and lunar eclipse would be too cool.

Saturday 7:06pm CST totality. Forecast clear to partly cloudy.

http://www.space.com/spacewatch/lunar_eclipse_2_031031.html
42 posted on 11/04/2003 7:15:10 PM PST by listenhillary
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To: Heff
Continuing on, the speed is simply the speed of all the junk headed out from the flare in the CME; 2,400 kilometers per second, which is basically halfway across the US each second.

They're still crunching the numbers to come up with a forecast arrival time but I'd guess it will end up being sometime tomorrow morning Eastern Time (not very well timed for Aurora in the US).

If there are any aurora it will be tomorrow night.
43 posted on 11/04/2003 7:15:36 PM PST by John H K
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To: Luke Skyfreeper
Or even better...


44 posted on 11/04/2003 7:15:56 PM PST by Luke Skyfreeper
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To: petuniasevan
The moon unfortunately is beginning to get very unfavorable for the aurora; getting towards a full moon. Really washes out a lot of the aurora.

I doubt there's really a chance of an amazing display for about another 18 days or so, when these sunspots (if they survive) are rotated back around the Sun and pointing towards Earth.
45 posted on 11/04/2003 7:18:17 PM PST by John H K
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To: LasVegasMac
Hoo Ya, I like that, indeed the Sun has farted in our general direction.

Monte Python and all that rot.

So let's draw back a pint and toast the sun and all get really pissed...

Sorry, my trips to Great Britain made me do it, not my fault..
46 posted on 11/04/2003 7:18:25 PM PST by Ogmios (Since when is 66 senate votes for judicial confirmations constitutional?)
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To: Heff
Can anyone explain what exactly is happening?

The sun did a wet burp. It's a very large one, but like most newborns, the aim was off. The earth only has overspray to deal with. That overspray may give some really pretty lights in the sky in northern lattitudes.

Our goose is not cooked. But it could have been.

/john

47 posted on 11/04/2003 7:23:30 PM PST by JRandomFreeper (I'm just a cook.)
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To: John H K
Global warming!
48 posted on 11/04/2003 7:25:45 PM PST by Imal (After Iraq, let's liberate California.)
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To: John H K
This is probably caused by Universal Warming. Ya think?
49 posted on 11/04/2003 7:26:44 PM PST by Ethyl
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To: right way right
Man, My skin sure is dry and itchy lately.

These are love blisters!

50 posted on 11/04/2003 7:28:07 PM PST by ovrtaxt ( http://www.fairtax.org **** Forget ANWR. Drill Israel !)
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To: Sabertooth
Yo the saber!

Is this the third of three flares (CME's) recently, or more detail of nbr 2 flare?
51 posted on 11/04/2003 7:29:59 PM PST by Robert A Cook PE (I can only support FR by donating monthly, but ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: Brett66
Several years ago (maybe from the massive 2001 event ?) the Auroa was visible down here in Atlanta.
52 posted on 11/04/2003 7:31:51 PM PST by Robert A Cook PE (I can only support FR by donating monthly, but ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: John H K
Estimated plane of sky velocity for this event is 2381 km/sec, although it is probable the true velocity is above 2400 km/sec because there is some evidence for acceleration of the CME.

I'm glad they cleared that up. I took one look at that thing and said, "There's no way in heck it's only going 2381 km/sec. It has to be going at least 19 km/sec faster than that."

53 posted on 11/04/2003 7:32:19 PM PST by Thane_Banquo
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To: John H K
It must be big.

The tanning parlor not far from me just lowered their prices 30%.
54 posted on 11/04/2003 7:33:01 PM PST by reagan_fanatic (Ain't Skeered...)
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To: Blue_Spark
Ummm Ya.. What he said.. Ya thats the ticket
55 posted on 11/04/2003 7:34:15 PM PST by scab4faa (Can't sleep.. the clowns will eat me... Can't sleep.. the clowns will eat me... Can't sleep..)
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To: listenhillary
LOL! I should have known! We loved the aurora pics, BTW.

Looking forward to a nice early eclipse :-)
56 posted on 11/04/2003 7:34:28 PM PST by Marie Antoinette (Happily repopulating the midwest since 1991!)
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To: SamAdams76
==>
57 posted on 11/04/2003 7:37:10 PM PST by mikrofon
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To: LasVegasMac
"The Sun farted in our general direction."

But who put a match to it?

58 posted on 11/04/2003 7:48:34 PM PST by SierraWasp (Multi-Level Government is more ABSURD than Multi-Level Marketing! The pyramid's upside down!!!)
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To: John H K
I'm sure this doesn't mean the end of the word

Good, because I have a nail appointment on Friday....

59 posted on 11/04/2003 7:49:40 PM PST by hispanarepublicana (successful, educated unauthentic latina--in Patrick Leahy's eyes, at least)
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE
Eh, depends on what you mean. I think there have been something like 7-8 or more X class flares the last two weeks. I think the total number over X10 has been something like 4.
60 posted on 11/04/2003 7:50:40 PM PST by John H K
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