Posted on 11/08/2003 8:08:27 PM PST by LowCountryJoe
"...Another way that technology marches on has to do with how science is conducted. Increasingly, the gold standard of randomized trials is supplanting other ways of gathering evidence, and helping truth supplant fiction. Most recently, the decades-long belief in the beneficial effects of hormone replacement therapy for post-menopausal women has crumbled under the weight of evidence from randomized trials.
Technological change can alter the costs and benefits of adhering to certain beliefs. Take the controversy about embryonic stem cell research, for example. The U.S. Roman Catholic Bishops oppose it, saying that life should be regarded as sacred from the moment of conception.4 But scientists, patient advocates (like Parkinson's sufferer Michael J. Fox), drug companies, clinics, some politicians and some government health care officials are banking on the research program's promise of treatment of and even cures for diseases like Alzheimer's and type I diabetes.
Let me offer the following heavily caveated and qualified prediction about religious, philosophical and ethical beliefs surrounding stem cell research: I'll bet that, over time, if embryonic stem cell research begins to deliver on its many promises, more and more people will lean toward Michael J. Fox's perspective than that of the Catholic bishops. Not that I have any special knowledge regarding the truth of any of the arguments: I'm not a theologian or a doctor, and have absolutely no authority or special knowledge concerning the ethics, the philosophy, the theology, or the science of stem cells. That's caveat #1. Caveat #2—I'm not saying that people should switch over to Fox's perspective, I'm just saying that that's probably what they will do. (There's a big difference between using economics to predict what will or might happen—positive economics—and what should happen—normative economics. This discussion is squarely in the realm of the positive.)
To repeat: over time—and if further discoveries reveal increased benefits of embryonic stem cell research—more and more people will hold religious and spiritual beliefs consistent with a sanguine view of such research. Why?
Because if embryonic stem cell research produces additional health benefits, the opportunity costs of believing that a blastocyst is sacred will rise. Not everyone will switch, of course; maybe just a few. Some, perhaps most, will fervently adhere to the Catholic bishops' position. Some will have no stake and will be out of the loop. But someone previously on the fence who learns she might benefit from such research has an incentive to lean toward favoring it.
This is the way economic analysis predicts the wind will blow. (Which, to repeat, is not the same as saying it's the way the wind should blow.)
While technological advance can cause beliefs to change, there is much that it cannot do. It can't settle matters of religious faith. That's why views of the most fervent believers won't change; for them, there's no tradeoff. And scientific progress is a force that's apt to create, rather than solve, thorny ethical issues..."
(Excerpt) Read more at econlib.org ...
"The Wicker Man" - a 1977 film referenced in this article is not really as scary as it's being billed although it fits with the questions of faith that the writer brings up.
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