Posted on 11/22/2003 6:46:19 PM PST by Braak
Sign of Weakness? Do Overseas Terror Strikes Suggest Al Qaeda Inability to Hit U.S.?
Analysis By Fawaz A. Gerges and Christopher Isham
Nov. 22 — The recent suicide car bombings in Saudi Arabia and Turkey indicate a dramatic shift in al Qaeda's tactics.
The militants who launched the car bombs clearly want to undermine the pro-Western governments in Riyadh and Ankara, but the attacks must also be viewed in broader terms. In the past year, al Qaeda (which officials have blamed in the Turkey attacks) and its regional affiliates have been attacking pro-Western Muslim regimes and soft targets from Tunisia to Indonesia, in a shift that is justified ideologically but is driven by necessity: Al Qaeda does not appear to have the capability to mount large-scale attacks inside the United States at the moment.
‘Heart of the Islamic World’
Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri, his second-in-command, have written of the need to shift the fight with the United States to "the heart of the Islamic world, which represents the true arena of the battle and the theater of the major battles in defense of Islam."
It is clear much of the terrorist activity in the past year in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Tunisia, Pakistan, and Yemen has been regionally motivated and organized with less command and control from al Qaeda's senior leadership. This is a result of a gradual erosion of al Qaeda's leadership and its inability to launch spectacular operations on U.S. soil. This view is gaining ground in the counter-terrorist community, but U.S. officials are wary of making such claims after failing to detect the presence of the Sept. 11 hijackers.
Since Sept. 11, 2001, U.S. officials and outside analysts agree that nearly 65 percent of al Qaeda's leaders have been killed or captured. About 3,400 al Qaeda suspects have been arrested in the United States and overseas, from Tunisia to Indonesia. Important logistical networks in Spain, Italy and Germany have been dismantled.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
Now, ABC, if you're really waking up, do us all a favor and send Peter back to Canada.
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It's not a sign of weakness. It's a sign of intelligence. The attacks are taking control of the people and the countryside while we strut about in useless tanks or B 52s at 30,000 feet. The present Islamic tactics are sound guerrilla warfare.
If you were an Islamist and wished to defeat the United States and England in the Middle East or in SE Asia, wouldn't it make more sense to strike against the actual allies (Australians) or probable allies (Turkey)of the "coalition of the willing" rather than striking in the US?
A strike in the US or England would (I trust) galavanize and re-awake the citizens to the actual threat posed and quiet the domestic "quislings" while continued attacks outside of both countries would weaken our allies while leaving our local "peace movement" free to grouse about the "quagmire" and the profits of Halliberton.
The only way for the US to lose this fight is if we decide to cut & run. Convincing us the do so requires the "home front" to remain quiet.
How many NVA terrorist attacks in the USA were necessary to have the US leave Viet Nam?
Bin Laden, while alive, appears to be in hiding in the remote mountains of Pakistan and no longer in regular communication with his foot soldiers or his most senior deputy, Zawahiri. The London-based Control Risks Group said last week that al Qaeda's network has been largely dismantled and is leaderless. ...Besieged and under attack by local authorities, al Qaeda's local affiliates seem to be blindly plunging toward the brink similar to what occurred in Egypt when local, isolated cells of militant Jihad and the Islamic Group attacked a Luxor temple and massacred 68 Egyptians and foreign tourists in November 1997. Neither group recovered from that attack.
In the late 1990s, bin Laden played a critical role in convincing Zawahiri to suspend his attacks in Egypt and to instead target the United States, Christians and Jews. He said internal strife alienates the Muslim constituency, whose support for al Qaeda is urgently needed and diverts resources from its confrontation with the West. Zawahiri must be pleased that the path has returned to his deeply held convictions.
Perhaps these latest attacks against Muslims & Arabs themselves Zawahiri's idea? He was always the operational & organizational brains behind Osama's throne. Maybe what we're seeing is that Zawahiri's really in control of al-Qaeda now?
Winning??? How can you possibly say that when over one third of Al Qaeda's leadership is still on the loose, plotting terror against the USA?
It's obvious Bush isn't doing enough to win the war on terror.
And we should leave Iraq.
(This was sarcasm, for those who didn't notice...)
I do wish that ABC wouldn't publicly challenge Al Quaeda this way: You're weak 'cause you haven't hit the U.S. Come 'N get us.
Yes, and this is a testimony to the effectiveness of the leadership of President Bush.
It is a sign of strength--the strength of America and the strength of the leadership of President Bush.
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The name of the game in warfare is to use what works best and do what works best. In this case the procedure is to get us down on the mat and rassle nitty-gritty style.
If the enemy can use clunker traditional carts or even hand grenades disguised as bagels, thereby taking control of an area while we lose control of that area, they are winning. The U. S. forces become irrelevant while the enemy controls the country. This isn't about attacking U. S. forces. It's about winning control of the country. They'd be nuts to stand up in military ranks against our army. That isn't where the action is. The key to winning is to make our high tech powerful army irrelevant while winning all around it.
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Hearts and minds can be irrevant. Guerrilla fights operate on the principle that if you grab people by the nads, their hears and minds will follow. In Viet Nam the communists killed 25,000 villagers. When the villagers found that not only could we not protect them, but cooperation of any kind was a death sentence, we lost support.
The attacks in Baquba are a sure sign of desperation-- this is one of the "hospots" known for attacks against US convoys. If they're reduced to killing their own to try to win power in that area of all places, that means they feel unsafe even there. And I have no doubt that the relatives of today's dead will be looking for them.
They are using donkeys in the day because they can no longer get cars or trucks around (especially at night).
This is going to become a battle of wills between us with the majority of Iraqis on one side and Saddam and the terrorists on the other.
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