Arnold's first defeat

Sacramento Bee ^ | 12/6/03 | Dan Weintraub

[ambrose]

Arnold Schwarzenegger considers himself a master strategist. But in the heat of his first legislative battle, he seems to have lost sight of what his goal really was. He ended up losing while fighting for something he didn't really need and might not have even wanted. Having morphed from Arnold Schwarzenegger into Gov. Schwarzenegger, he allowed himself to get sucked into the very kind of non-sensical partisan deadlock that, as a private citizen, he used to decry.

[ambrose]

ping.

[HitmanLV]

Man that was a short honeymoon.

[pogo101]

asking legislators on a few days notice to adopt a constitutional amendment that would have banned tax increases to solve next year’s problem and made higher tax rates all but impossible to enact forever more. There was simply no way the Democrats who control the Legislature were ever going to agree to such a provision

DING DING DING for Mr. Weintraub.

[Kevin Curry]

He believed too much in the myth of his personal charisma.

In the movies, you can simply hire another team of scriptwriters if the script doesn't get you where you want to go. But Sacramento isn't Hollyweird.

Still, Arnold is not a quitter. We'll see whether he learns from this and overcomes his weakness or is bled to death by the Democrats in the California legislature.

[TheAngryClam]

Victory for conservatism bump.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I doubt that he was surprised!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

The real problem was that Schwarzenegger was asking the Democrats, as they head into a pivotal battle over the future of California government, to lay down their weapons and surrender. They weren’t going to do that Friday night. They won’t ever do it. His only choice now is to stop asking them to do it, or to go to the voters.

He can now go to the voters and ask if they want to send more money to Stinky-mento!!!

[RandyRep]

A short honeymoon indeed -- Arnold just got bitch-slapped by the state Senate 34-0. I guess that means some Republicans voted against his proposal also.

So where does that leave him? He needs to submit a budget by early January, I think, for FY2005. He has a $14 billion shortfall out of $50 billion in the general fund, and doesn't want to cut a number of programs, which limits him further.

The choices he has seem to be to cut spending by 28% (reduce payrolls, reduce expenditures like supplies and travel, cut back on hours, etc) or increase taxes. Of course, he pledged to not increase taxes so that is really not a feasible option at this point. But the pressure to raise taxes to save health, city/county, fire and police, parks and rec, libraries, higher education, welfare, workers comp, etc. programs will be tremendous.

The Democrats will probably propose to meet him halfway -- a 14% reduction in spending and a 14% increase in taxes. The Democrats will try to put any tax increase all on the upper brackets, and the "mean" Republicans will propose sales taxes and across the board income tax increases.

In the longer term, he should put his spending cap and reserve fund proposal up for the voters in November 2004.

It will be interesting!

[Reagan Man]

Given his campaign promises for more funding for the schools, for higher education, more roads, more transit, more health care, Schwarzenegger doesn’t sound like a small-government Republican.

So what! PresBush doesn't sound like a small government Republican either. Bush gave us the largest education spending increases ever and he sign-off on a huge FarmBill give away. Bush also pressured anyone and everyone, to vote for passage of the largest single increase in federal spending in 38 years --- the new Medicare prescription drug boondoggle. These are not small government conservatives, by any stretch of the imagination.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

It will be interesting!

That is likely an understatement!

[optik_b]

"These are not small government conservatives, by any stretch of the imagination"

Nope, it's all about getting votes. You left out the massive spending on rebuilding Islamic Iraq. All of this huge deficit spending is sending the dollar sinking against the Euro faster than our enemies could ever have dreamed.

[Reagan Man]

I'm a fiscal conservative but also strong on defense. The spending for the War on Terrorism and Homeland Security was legitimate. The $20 billion allocated for rebuilding Iraq, will pay for itself in the long run. Fighting the war over there, is preferable to fighting it over here. As the US economy recycles itself and business trends rebound, the dificit will decrease and the dollar will regain its strength in foreign overseas markets.

[Tamzee]

So we have two sides that are refusing to compromise with each other at all... our new GOP governor caught in the middle looking trapped and silly and already being savaged by the liberals because of the conservative cuts Arnold is forcing on them.

He's getting chopped at the knees by the left and the right... Is our conservative political strategy really "Death before improvement unless we can get 100% of what we want"?

[Uncle Hal]

A single battle does not determine the outcome of a war.

[SAJ]

Not conservative at all, in any legitimate sense of the word. Unfortunately, about the best we can get (i.e. none too good).

Regarding EUR/USD, I strongly suggest you do not fall into the trap the Euroweenies are setting for themselves. They still harbour the old quasi-macho ''strong currency'' attitudes left over from the days of the gold standard and Bretton Woods. These days, when all currencies are fiat only, the proper game is that of ''beggar thy neighbour'', not ''look how strong my currency is''. And they're about to pay an enormous price for this idiocy -- how does a semi-permanent recession sound?

That's what they're headed for if EUR/USD stays above $1.20...and that's the GOOD news, believe it or not. EUR/USD isn't just going to stay above $1.20 (with perhaps a dip here and there to $1.1450 or so), it's headed for $1.30 in fairly short order, conceivably even higher. The Bush administration won't say a word about it, indeed, they're encouraging a weakening dollar with almost all their policy decisions, and betting that capital flows won't dry up significantly before next November (pretty good bet, in my view).

USD was wildly overvalued throughout BJ's second term (which fact led to, among other things, the stock mkt bubble), and now it's coming around to more realistic levels. Enemies, it's our enemies weakening the dollar? Nope, not at all -- this is one of the best things that could happen to the U.S. economy (and, no, before you ask, I'm not an exporter).

Things should get even better for the U.S. as the dollar weakens vs. Euro. The idiots in Wonderland, esp. Trichet, are already muttering about -- are you ready for this? -- currency controls. PRAY for this to occur. Europe's last go at imbecilic currency controls was THE principal leveraging factor in the U.S.' favour in the trade boom after WW II and into the 1950s. This time, things will be MUCH sweeter for us, because capital (since 1973) has become quite accustomed to going where it damned well pleases whenever it damned well likes. If the Euroweenies think that they can reverse this attitude with some scheme of ''currency controls'', then they've overloaded their bong and have been hitting the MD 20-20 way too heavy.

Might as well enjoy the ride; suggest writing IMM Euro puts each month on ANY dip, use 350-400 pips below the mkt for the striking price. Should be eay money, duck soup until Greenbean starts raising the FF rate (figure the March FOMC meeting for that, btw, possibly the May meeting).

[SAJ]

eay ==> easy

Sorry for the typo.

[Reagan Man]

>>>Is our conservative political strategy really "Death before improvement unless we can get 100% of what we want"?

More silly spin, from our resident centrist RINO. You know nothing about conservatism.

Btw, how are ya? =^)

[NormsRevenge]

Stuff happens.

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way through the Forum of Public Opinion

We elected a mortal after all.

November 2004 is the General / Recall Election of them All. That may truly be the Last Best Chance to restore the California.

[NormsRevenge]

Yikes :-\

That may truly be the Last Best Chance to restore & save the California Republic.