Posted on 12/09/2003 5:38:07 AM PST by William McKinley
I have a different theory than most.
It seems that most people think we are seeing an internal Democrat power struggle between the Clintons and Dean/Gore. I don't see that; a power struggle is rarely so one sided. Bill Clinton, for all of his mendacity, is an expert at saying some outrageously false sound bite that still gets echoed by the media to cause political damage to his foe. He hasn't done this to Dean-- why?
Wesley Clark is supposedly the Clinton's stalking horse. But what if he wasn't their main guy after all? What if the man they have been backing all along was actually Howard Dean?
Let's consider.
According to the Rutland Herald, "The schedule shows the Democratic governor was laying the groundwork for his campaign back in December 2001 when he met with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton". He met with former head of the National Security Council Sandy Berger, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, and former U.S. Surgeon General Joycelyn Elders. He met with Bill Clinton.
When someone is meeting with a faction this often, which is more likely? That the person is trying to defeat them with a hostile takeover, or that the person is working with and coordinating with that faction?
Back when Clinton was impeached, Silicon Valley entrepreneurs Wes Boyd and Joan Blades formed an internet-based activism group to counter efforts at removing him from office. Moveon.org was born. Post-impeachment, the advocacy group continued on to champion liberal causes from gun control to the campaign against George W. Bush. They have maintained cozy relationships with both Clintons, as well as with Al Gore, who has given several policy speaches at Moveon sponsored events. Moveon was one of the first feathers Dean added to his cap as he maneuvered his campaign, and in many ways has been the horsepower in his insurgent's engine.
Conventional wisdom held that the main competition Dean would face for the Democrat nomination would come from Massachusetts Senator John Kerry (with his wife's fortune, his veteran credentials, his important hair, and his appeal in neighboring New Hampshire), from Missouri Representative Dick Gephardt (with his strong union ties, and his appeal in neighboring Iowa), from North Carolina Senator John Edwards (with his trial lawyer funding and support, and his southern appeal), and from Connecticut Senator and former Vice Presidential candidate Joe Lieberman (with his appeal to Gore voters). Each of these men found their efforts hamstrung; each time there were people with ties to Clinton/Gore involved.
John Kerry's hopes of securing the nomination always involved winning the New Hampshire primary. Yet, as Howard Dean aggressively went after Kerry and after New Hampshire voters, Kerry seemed unable to get his message out. His campaign spokesman, former Gore flack Chris Lehane, had primary responsibility in this regard (outside of the candidate himself). But not only did Lehane seem to be ineffective for Kerry, he also was disloyal; at a critical juncture, when Wesley Clark entered the race, he embarrassed the haughty French looking Senator (who happened to serve in Vietnam) by defecting to the newcomer.
But there was more to the Lehane story than just ineffectiveness and a well-timed switch to a competitor. In mid-March, Lehane allegedly had a laptop containing sensitive information regarding campaign strategy stolen from his car. The AP reported, "Chris Lehane said the laptop was stolen from his car while he was eating lunch. He said a waiter told him he saw a middle-aged man pull up next to Lehane's car, smash a window, snatch the computer and speed off." A witness wrote down the license plate of the suspect's car. It turned out to be a stolen plate. The obvious premeditation, exemplified by the cover plate, suggests that this was not a random theft but rather that the suspect knew exactly what he was going after. If he tailed Lehane it would explain partly how he was in place to make the grab; it would not, however, explain why Lehane had left such an important laptop in plain view on the front seat.
Where for John Kerry everything hinges on New Hampshire, for Dick Gephardt it all comes down to Iowa. As the USA Today reported, "A labor stalwart, he is counting on unions to carry him to victory in important states such as Iowa, which starts the nomination process with caucuses Jan. 19." Unfortunately, the unions were not as faithful to Mr. Gephardt as he had anticipated. The SEIU, the largest union in the AFL-CIO, jumped into Dean's waiting arms, with president Andrew Stern saying "the passion of the members lies with Howard Dean." Stern has a long relationship with Al Gore, inviting him to speak at several conferences and securing the union's endorsement for him early in the 2000 campaign. Shortly after the SEIU endorsed Dean, AFSCME made it a double. AFSCME's president (and chair of the entire AFL-CIO) Gerald McEntee said "We have a candidate who represents our values and who can defeat this President". McEntee has a long relationship with Bill Clinton. Back in 1992, while the industrial unions were backing Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, McEntee convinced his union to endorse Clinton.
As The Spectator noted, "Both labor unions, which have endorsed Dean, had been strong supporters of Gore, by way of his boss, Bill Clinton in 2000."
For John Edwards, the campaign has always been about the south. He would warn his party about nominating another northeastern liberal, and point to how only southern Democrats have been able to cobble together a winning coalition. What Edwards did not count on was having to compete with Wesley Clark for the southern attention. Clark, encouraged by the Clintons, was a late entry to the race and ensured that Edwards would be unable to monopolize the vote of those southern primary voters who would only pull the lever for someone from the region. This split has allowed Dean to move into the lead in the polling for the first southern primary state, South Carolina; together Clark and Edwards attract 16% of the support, but each individually trails Dean's 11%.
Clark's entry also complicated matters for Kerry, who is no longer the only veteran candidate.
Joe Lieberman's campaign has been in trouble from the start. He has not been able to attract attention. He has had trouble raising money, comparative to the other candidates. But the one thing he had was the support of Democrats nationwide, if not in the early primary and caucus states. Al Gore's decision to endorse Dean, rather than his former running mate, is likely to be a blow from which his campaign cannot recover. The Spectator reports that "Gore is also expected to travel to Iowa and New Hampshire for Dean in the coming days.", quoting an unnamed former Gore advisor as saying "He knows Gephardt and Kerry and Lieberman, and he clearly believes Dean is the better man this time around."
So is this an intra-party battle between Dean and the Clintons? Has the wooden soldier "who will fight for you" teamed up with the metrosexual who is mad as hell and not going to take it any more, in an effort to pry away control of the Democrat party, pulling it to the left while the Clintons try to keep it centered? Many think so, including former Clinton media advisor and pollster Dick Morris. "The fight we are witnessing is a battle for control of the Democratic Party. In one corner are the Clintons, sending contender after contender out to center ring in an effort to stop Dean from taking over their party," asserts Morris. While it is true that each of the prime contenders, other than the Gore-endorsed Dean has been undercut by someone with strong ties to the Clintons, it is equally true that each of the prime contenders has been undercut by someone with strong ties to Al Gore. One clue may come from the way the Gore endorsement came about. According to the Spectator, it was engineered by McEntee and Stern, and not the other way around.
But the real way to tell will be how things play out. If the Clintons remain distant from Dean, then it will be clear that they are positioning themselves to fill any vacuum resulting from a Dean defeat. But if, instead, Hillary ends up on a ticket under Dean, a prospect she has declined to rule out, with Wesley Clark positioned to assume a Colin Powell-type role in the campaign, it will be clear that this soap opera had a clever plot twist as part of the story all along.
What is up with you people? Hil is not going to run!
What a silly notion you've got going there. Yeah, Gore in '08...LOL!
The Secret Service would never allow it.
What I like about this theory is that to some degree it is provable.
If we see HillandBill living up to expectations and not endorsing a Democrat in the primaries, and we see Dean choose someone such as Evan Bayh or John Edwards or Bob Graham or Dick Gephardt for VP, then we'll know this was just fanciful thinking.
If we see, instead, one or both Clintons endorse Dean before, say, South Carolina's primary, or if we see Hillary accept Dean's VP nod, then we will know that the supposed catfight was nothing of the sort.
And if we see Dean tab Clark for his VP, then it will be indeterminate; then it could be either way.
Dude... get a life! How long have you followed Hillary Rodham Clinton? She ain't playin' 2nd banana to nobody! Didn't you see her on the 3 major networks Sunday? She doesn't like complicated game plans... it's not in her character/history. Patience is not one of her virtues.
The Clintons run the DNC not the activist, peace-queer 'greenies'. They hold the purse strings and play the tune. When the dust settles at the convention in Boston, HRC will be there to accept her party's nomination.
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