And catch-up will be easy. What do you think the first act of one of these countries is going to be, building a full-fledged base? If they successfully orbit the moon, with a live pilot, I'll be impressed. Until then, it's all hype.
And again I say, the moon is not the military high-ground.
The water-ice becomes hydrogen and oxygen. The regolith is imbedded with hydrogen and the sun provides solar energy. Some speak of Helium 3 but I'm reserving judgment on that.