Fundamentals are looking good, with one exception: the price of oil.
We've got low unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates, easy credit, and high Productivity all leading to an increase in our speed of money.
The trade deficit is *roughly* the size of our GDP growth, so I'd label it as "neutral" now. Federal and state debt is below our current and expected rate of GDP growth, so that's still not a negative, either.
To get to this point, at the federal level we've repealed various rules and regulations and red tape (logging, genetically modified foods, getting medicine to Market faster, CO2 regulations, ergonomic rules, etc.), lowered income taxes substantially (a family of four earning forty thousand per year now pays less than four Dollars in monthly income taxes), dropped the value of the Dollar on the foreign exchange markets (but not yet against every currency, sadly), and the Fed has lowered banking interest rates substantially.
The Dollar needs to still fall to a level plateau some 20% below its current levels (roughly 40% below its peak) to turn our trade deficit completely around, however.
We also need to figure out how to get oil down to no higher than $25 per barrel.
If those last two things happen in our current climate, then the U.S. economy should go into a multi-decade boom that will make the roaring 1920's sound like a whisper.
So because our fundamentals look so good, one shouldn't be overly concerned if the DOW slows down or if there is another Tech bloodbath.
Naturally, corporate layoffs are going to continue at the bigger and older firms, with hiring coming on in the smaller and younger firms. Such as it is, such as it was, such it will ever be. Gloom and doomers will latch onto the layoffs and the falling Dollar, and perhaps a big drop in the Market (always possible though I doubt it likely) as reasons for a coming "Bust." As in most years of our nation's history, however, the Doomers will be wrong yet again due to our strong fundamentals.
To actually kill this Boom would take a raise in taxes, a major terror attack, an increase in regulations, and oil staying above $32 per barrel for an extended period (or a major hike in interest rates). Each of these things is/are unlikely, and the aggregate combination is even less likely.
So bet on the boom.
You might put me in the 3rd Party troll, but I've been very consistent. Over 5% GDP next year, Dow over 11,000 by the election, and unemployment under 5.2%
Re re your concern about 2005. We will probably see another tax cut in 2004. If the right mixture of congress is there, we will see massive changes in the government sector. Jobs will be eliminated, and many of those that are necessary will be handled by private enterprise.