Analysis: Musharraf's Kashmir risk

BBC ^ | 12/18/03 | Zaffar Abbas

[Valin]

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's concession on Kashmir is likely to bring a fresh impetus to attempts to improve relations with India.
President Musharraf has offered to set aside Pakistani demands for a referendum in the disputed territory in return for a serious dialogue with India.
Holding such a plebiscite, which has been called for in UN resolutions, has been Islamabad's major demand for the past 50 years.
However, the Pakistani leader believes the time has come for the two sides to show flexibility in their positions and take bold steps for peace in the region.
India has yet to respond formally and that response will dictate whether the president's offer will help take the process forward.

President Musharraf knows his bold and sudden move is a major gamble as far as public opinion within Pakistan is concerned and may lay him open to a new barrage of criticism from the forces of Islamic opposition, both democratic and militant.
Yet, his close aides say, he is prepared to take the risk.

Right-wing opposition

Up until now Pakistan has always said that a settlement of the territorial dispute over Kashmir is the "unfinished agenda of partition" of the Indian subcontinent in 1947.
At that time the ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh, decided to accede to India in return for military aid. That aid was conditional on seeking the views of the Kashmiri people - the majority of whom are Muslim - on the territory's future.
So Kashmir's Muslims found themselves living outside the new Pakistan, a nation created specifically to be a Muslim state.

Pakistan was pleased when India approached the UN Security Council more than 50 years ago with a proposal for the plebiscite, which would allow the people of Jammu and Kashmir to decide whether to join India or Pakistan.
But the plebiscite never took place and ever since Pakistan has demanded the implementation of the UN Security Council resolution.

India says it is a thing of the past.

Even before President Musharraf's latest compromise, some right-wing political groups in the country had been accusing the government of giving too many concessions to India.
This referred specifically to his announcement last month of a unilateral ceasefire on the Line of Control that divides Indian- and Pakistani-administered Kashmir.
When it comes to relations between India and Pakistan, General Musharraf has always been full of surprises.
He was regarded as the architect of the military conflict in Kargil in 1999, when the Pakistan army and separatist militants crossed the Line of Control.
But two years later he travelled to India for a summit meeting with Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in Agra.

Relations deteriorated again when the Indian parliament was attacked by gunmen who India claimed were Pakistan-backed militants, sparking a crisis that led to both nations amassing troops along the border.
But President Musharraf baffled everyone again last year at a summit meeting of South Asian nations in Kathmandu by walking up to Mr Vajpayee to offer a handshake.

Dialogue hints

The president's latest offer has come against the backdrop of an initiative taken by Mr Vajpayee, who offered a "hand of friendship" to Pakistan during a visit to Kashmir in April.
Since then the two sides have taken several steps forward - improving travel links and restoring full diplomatic relations.
Mr Vajpayee says he will be travelling to Pakistan in January next year for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) summit.
However, Delhi insists bilateral talks with Islamabad will only resume once the Pakistani Government stops what it calls cross-border infiltration of armed militants in Kashmir.

Islamabad denies any involvement.

However, there are hints of a resumption of a sustained process of dialogue over Kashmir.
In the words of the Pakistani president, the recent thaw in relations presents a "very real opportunity" to make peace and he warns India not to throw away the chance by spurning his offers for talks.
Although he has not offered any alternative to Pakistan's stated position on Kashmir, analysts say it means that for the first time Islamabad is open to discussing all the options - as long as they have the support of the majority of the people in the state.