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Unfortunately, the military balance is tilting in favor of the PRC. Every year the PRC adds more and more short range missiles opposite Taiwan.

Unless they wish to sterilize the entire island, the effect of those weapons would be nil.

It continues to upgrade its navy, not to anything approaching parity with the US, but to a point where it would be sure to inflict a Falklands-style bloody nose on a few US ships should we decide to intervene.

Followed by losing their entire navy.

We wouldn't send "a few ships." We'd send the 7th Fleet, which is a much more powerful navy than China's.

While China still can't launch a D-Day style invasion, I don't believe it aspires to.

Without ChiCom boots on the ground, Taiwan remains independent.

Like Rummy, the PRC military thinkers take network-centric warfare seriously.

Unfortunately, NCW doesn't get them across the strait.

A lightning attack from the air combined with SF and sleeper agent-induced chaos from within followed by a "deal" offered to Taiwan: reunite now and you'll get the same deal as Hong Kong just might work since it looks like Washington might dither just long enough for it to be a fait accompli.

Problem with your scenario: Taiwan panics, and Shanghai and the Three Gorges Dam disappear in blinding white flashes. Taiwan then makes a counteroffer: "Leave us alone, dismantle all of your offensive forces under international supervision, and we won't destroy other selected targets in China. Your call, bubbas."

I agree. The best way for Taiwan to stay out of the PRC's grasp would be via a back channel nuclear threat to Beijing. I'm not sure if they have the will. And what if all their F-16s get caught on the ground? Do they have any other delivery platforms? And, while I think they probably do have nuclear capability, neither of us know for sure. Perhaps they made a political decision not to build in order to avoid becoming even more of an international pariah.

As for the effect of the PRC's missiles, it would be far from nil. They'd have excellent intelligence on what to target in Taiwan because of the open nature of the latter's society as well as the fact that the PRC has had 50 years to infiltrate agents into sensitive positions throughout the island. A bolt from the blue salvo of several 100 missiles would disrupt Taiwan's initial response. Part of its Air Force surely would get caught on the ground and its ability to mobilize would be hindered. Couple that with the PRC seizing an airhead or two and flying in reinforcements and the panic that would ensure would be far out of proportion to the actual combat ability of the ChiCom troops on the ground.

Speed would be of the essence if US intervention were to have any practical effect. That's why I don't think the PRC would go for the blockade option -- too slow, gives us too much time to respond. Yes, we'd sink their navy rather easily, but that requires a political decision in favor of intervention. Would one be made immediately? Under a Democratic administration in '09? While a simultaneous crisis is going on in Iran?