The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | January 6, 2004 | Jeff Head

[vanmorrison]

You've hit the nail on the head! The JMSDF has everything the PLAN has, except beat-up old carriers, and more, given that everything Japan has is fully modern and plugged into the American defense umbrella, including state-of-the-art ships, aircraft, and missile defense.

If we can only get the Japanese to get over their idiotic aversion to actually using this stuff against their adversaries.

[spetznaz]

Overestimating an enemy LS means that you will either not do something necessary out of fear,but usually it means that you will take such major precautions that when war finally erupts you will have an enormous edge (an example of this is the US using weaponry meant to defeat the ex-Soviet Union against Iraq in the Gulf war).

However Underestimating an enemy will get you killed! Simple! Going into a fight thinking that "it is just the Chinese" will only lead to your family receiving a letter of condolence. It is better to go to war expecting a strong enemy (and prepared for one) and finding a 60 pound weakling, than to go in with hollers and backslaps, making jests about the opposing force, only to get your collective a$$e$ handed back to you.

Before WW2 the Japanese were mocked and ridiculed as ineffective half-witted sots who could not even hold a rifle correctly (actually the Japanese air wing was allegedly not able to 'fly straight' because of the 'way their eyes were shaped).

That was until Pearl Harbor made people realize that the so called 'Japs' had some teeth.

China is biding is time. IS it the threat it insinuates it is (although China actually tries to downplay its capabilities .....)? Maybe it is, and maybe it is not. Remember the Chinese adage that the essence of warfare is deception. However one thing that is for sure is we should not point fingers and laugh in jest lest one day, a decade or less from now, we learn of the inept ludicrous Chinese sinking one of our ships.

Cyn, you posted a comment about the Chinese not having any combat experience since 'they were crushed by the Japanese in the late 1800s.' True, quite true indeed. Just remember that when dealing with China one needs to look at the macro picture. While we have only been a superpower for less than a century the Chinese have more or less been a powerhouse, on and off, for a long long time. And they want to be numero uno once more.

[LS]

I strongly disagree. George McClellan greatly lengthened the Civil War because he constantly overestimated his enemy. Overestimating enemy capabilities---especially weapons---means a BAD ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES. For example, we built the B-1 bomber largely due to the concern that the B-52 could not escape the MiG-25s, rather than waiting for the more capable B-2.

Overestimating an enemy often leads to either paralysis or vast over-spending when money can be used for other weapons.

[Jeff Head]

From the full article, where I address the very point you mention:

While the Chinese experience level with this equipment will be very much inferior to the decades and decades of practical experience the United States Navy has, there is no doubt that the Chinese are embarked on a path to challenge that experience and heretofore dominance of the U.S. Navy in the region at some point.

Everything presented is factual and this very pertinent fact about experience is also pointed out clearly.

Wouldn't be the first time a relatively unexperienced navy tried to challenge one with much more experience.

[Jeff Head]

The Communist Chinese consider the U.S their primary enemy. They are preparing to fight us & win. And they are doing it with our money & technology.

Exactly.

[cyn]

Hi, spetznaz -- that comment was made in #15 by John H K

Oh, I'll admit, I was tempted just to keep quiet and see if I was right!

[cyn]

make that #11

[Jeff Head]

Understood...and that is probably a big part of the reason that the Chinese are pushing for developing their own systems...using the Russian stuff to bridge the gap.

But, by all accounts, the SU-27 and the Sovremenny vessels are very capable platforms and the Sunburn and Yahkont missiles are giving our people some headaches.

The Chinese have to address our CBGs in order to be able to project any appreciable power into the China Sea and beyond and make it stick. It is a nut no one has been able to crack and they are certainly not there yet. In fact, short of some very significant breakthrough similar to what I talk about in Dragon's Fury with the supercavitating weapons, they are not going to do it trying to match us stroke for stroke with carriers and missiles IMHO. (Unless they can bankrupt us first). That plays to our strengths. They will have to come up with some mixture of asymetrical means and conventional means and you can bet they are working on it and we need to be prudently prepared and maintain our advantage.

[Poohbah]

Jeff, to give you some perspective:

Had the USS Cole been a ChiCom Sovremmenny, that boatload of explosives would have at least sunk the ship at pierside, and probably triggered a catastrophic magazine explosion. And those ships are the absolute best platforms the PLAN has.

The ChiCom navy is significantly inferior to either the JMSDF or the US 7th Fleet.

The Kaiser found out what you get with the world's second-best navy: defeated. The money poured into the High Seas Fleet was a complete waste.

The ChiComs aren't even at that level. And I don't think they have the time they need to get up to second best before history's alarm clock goes off.

[Jeff Head]

I've been informed that there is some wargaming going on. Nothing definitive though.

[Jeff Head]

If you look at the shear number of new, modern classes and the rate they are setting up for building them...IMHO it's pretty worriesome.

[AppyPappy]

In reality, neither the Russkies nor the Chinese have any naval battle experience. All this stuff looks really good but what will happen in a battle? I think it will all be sub bait.

[Jeff Head]

The JMSDF is agueably the best pure destroyer navy in the world...they need to expand in to some of the larger naval air and Phibrons to be capable of projecting and maintaining power.

Their new Ohsumi class amphibious assault ships (shown below), coupled with their Aegis destroyers (License built Burkes) are definitive moves in that direction.

It's not clear that how far we are going to encourage them in doing this at this point. Some memories are still long.

[Pahuanui]

The Communist Chinese consider the U.S their primary enemy.

I don't see the evidence that justifies that conclusion.

They are preparing to fight us & win.

Yawn. This same tired canard gets drawn out over and over. The economic relationship between the two countries is far too important jeopardize with anything more than quivering sabres.

(Make no mistake. This was not about money. Clinton was and is a Communist agent recruited and run by the Soviet Union and passed to Communist China.) Communist China's naval build-up is just one of the results.

See your doctor immediately. Your dosage needs to be increased dramatically, possibly even a new prescription.

[Jeff Head]

Had the USS Cole been a ChiCom Sovremmenny, that boatload of explosives would have at least sunk the ship at pierside, and probably triggered a catastrophic magazine explosion.

I agree. Our experience and capability at damage control are legend...and have been for many decades.

As regards the Nazi fleet...the Japanese had the 2nd best fleet, not the Nazis...and they played hell with us for a while.

I don't think they have the time they need to get up to second best before history's alarm clock goes off.

Yet to be determined...but I hope you are right. They are pouring money, effort, research and manufacturing into this as it is, as this material make clear.

[Jeff Head]

I address that in the full article. See my post above to John H K. That's not stopping them from sinking billions into the effort.

[Poohbah]

As regards the Nazi fleet...the Japanese had the 2nd best fleet, not the Nazis...and they played hell with us for a while.

Please reread my post.

[Porterville]

Blah, blah, and the Soviets were tough... we'll kick China so far in the ass they'll think they're Siam.

[Jeff Head]

I see...World War I...sorry for the miscomm, my bad.

Different country, same result in World War II (us vs. the Japanese)...but they did play havoc with us for some time.

[Jeff Head]

I don't think the final outcome is in doubt...but one of the prices of liberty is eternal vigilance and I would just as soon beat them the way Reagan beat the Soviets as to spill a bunch of good American blood to accomplish the same later.

That's what the article is really about.