Skip to comments.The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia
Posted on 01/06/2004 9:05:14 AM PST by Jeff Head
By Jeff Head, January 2004
In the 1990's the Poeple's Republic of China embarked on an unprecedented military buildup to modernize their aremd forces, increase their qualitative functioning and put them in a position to be able to better carry out the geo-olitical dictates of the Red Chinese government. This necessarily includes being able to develop themselves to a point that they could credibly confront the other armed forces in the region who may stand in the way of those geo-political directives, in particularly the United States.
The buildup has covered the spectrum of military forces, from strategic rocket forces (ICBM's), tactical rocket forces (SRBM's), ground forces, air forces and naval forces. It is being accomplished with monies that would otherwise have bankrupted the earlier marxist and maoist market economies, and while maintianing their communistic/marxistis political heiarchy. Capitalizing on the low cost labor force that they have opened up to the western world, the Red Chinese are obtaining the influx of capital necessary to maintian their military buildup. Thye are also making adept application of Sun Tsu philosophy (where makes clear that all warfare is deception) to amass staggering western trade defficits (meaning the west is on the deficit end) which are reaping them the tremendous capital and technological capabilities to continue and to achieve their military goals.
In conjucntion with the capital gains, through research and development, blackmail, importation of dual use technologies, bribery and out and out espionage, the Red Chinese have also markedly increased their technological and qualitative capabilities many fold over the last several years. This has allowed them to rise from a point in the early to mid 1990's where they were 25-30 years behind US technology, to a point today (less than fifteen years later) where their newer systems are challenging American capabilities in some areas, and posing a credible threat in others.
While not an exhaustive study, the focus of this article is to examine and present the recent developments in the Chinese Navy (PLAN) which are putting them into a position to credibly challenge the United States Navy in the region.
The Chinese Navy has historically been without any sea-based naval air component. Like the Soviets before them, they have historically relied heavily on land based naval strike aircraft to attack and defeat opposing at-sea naval forces in the region. They have had no aircraft carriers. However, like the Soviets before them, the Chinese have come to see the desirability and necessity of developing sea-based naval air forces if they plan to project power very far from their own shores. In recognition of this, over the last ten years, they have purchased and studied at least three different carrier designs. These ships have been acquired through various strategmns including purchasing them for scrap and then bringing them to Chinese naval yards for study and purchasing them for supposed economic reasons, like making a floating casino out of a former Russian carrier, and then again bringing them to China for study. The two carriers bought for scrap are not suitable for refitting and making operational, but they would have provided Chinese shipbuilders and designers with invaluable knowledge so they can augment their own future naval plans.
The latest carrier obtained in this fashiopn is the most troubling. It is the Russian carrier, the Varyag. The Varyag is.a relatively modern design and could be made into something that is very capable. It was towed to the Dalian Chinese naval yards where it is currently being studied for anything but a floating Casino. Given the Chinese capital capabilities, it could easily be refitted and made sea worthy (it was towed at sea from the Black Sea to China) or it could provide the technical basis for a wholly indigenous Chinese carrier.
The Vayrag Entering Chinese waters
The Vayrag birtrhed at Chinese naval shipyards
The Vayrag is not something to be taken lightly. Fully equiped it would approach a 65,000 ton displacement and embark 40-50 modern jet fighter and attack aircraft. As such, it would be the equal (it is in fact a newer design) to the Russian Kuznetzov and would be the largest carrier in the world outside of America's super-carriers. Operating within range of ground air support and with the appropriate escort vessels, it would pose a credable threat in the China Sea and particularly in the Formosa Straits. The Chinese have been purchasing, and are now license building, SU-27 fighter bombers in China which could be used on the Vayrag and their new J-10 aircraft might also be suitably modified for carrier operations. If the Chinese were to complete this carrier and then augment it with designs of their own to the point where they were producing several of them, the balance of power in the region would shift dramitically.
Red Chinese produced SU-27 Aircraft (J11)
The Red Chinese J-10
But do the Chinese intend to do this?
That question can be answered by determining if the Chinese are developing and fielding the necessary escort and support vessels and infrastructure to protect and augment any carrier they develop.
The answer to that questions is an umittigated, yes!
The Chinese have embarked on an ambitious and unprecedented development and ship building program of modern destroyers and frigates that would allow for the creation of powerful carrier battle groups similar to those fielded by the U.S. Navy once they produce a carrier. These include multi-role combat vessels, area air-defense vessels (similar to American Aegis vessels) and support vessels. They have also purchased very capable, modern large surface combatants from the Russians.
The Sovermenny class destroyers were produced by the Soviets in the late 1980's to specifcally threaten U.S. carriers. The Chinese have purchased four of these vessels and refitted and renamed them the Hangzhou class. The Russians modernized the design throughout the 1990's before their sale to the Chinese and they are an example of the type of equipment the Chinese are purchasing with their new found wealth and technology (mostly ammassed from trade with the United States and other western countries). These ships are very capable, mulit-purpose guided missile destroyer and carry the Sunburn and Yahkont surface to surface missiles which were specifically designed by the Russians to attack U.S. super-carriers and defeat the Aegis air defense system. These vessels aslo have a credible medium-ranged anti-air defense system suitable for their own protection, or close in protection of other vessels.
A former Sovremmenny class now saling as the PLAN Hangzhou
To augment the multi-role capabilities of the Hangzhou class, the Chinese have done a very thorough job of development themselves, producing their own modern designs. This started in the 1990's with modernization of the numerous, but older, Luda class of destroyers. It then proceeded to the development of the newer Luhu class desroyers in the mid-1990's and the evolution of that class into the newer and more capable Luhai class by the late 1990's. It is now finally producing their new Typer 52B, Guangzhou class of vessels. With a displacemnt approaching 7,000+ tons and modern anti-surface, anti-air and anti-submarine weapons systems and using proven Russian Top Dome and other acquisition and targeting sensors, this design represents a modern Chinese version of the Russian Svremmenny and indicates the Chinese commitment to being self-sufficient in their naval development and power projection capabilities. This design is a very capable design and cannot be taken lightly by U.S. war planners. Currently the Chinese have launched two of these newer vessels and are projected to build up to eight of them.
The new PLAN 168 Guanghou destroyer
The second Guanghou destroyer being built
In addition, the Chinese are developing a new, stealthy Type 054 class frigate that will be capable in the anti-air, anti-surface and anti-submarine roles. Similar to the role of the earlier U.S. Perry class frigates, but much newer, more stealthy and an apparent attempt to beat the Americans to the Litoral Combat Ship role, these new frigates are already being built and launched in Chinese shipyards.
The new Type 54 PLAN Frigate
In order to provide the area air coverage necessary to protect a carrier in the modern war-at-sea environment, the Chinese have also embarked on the very ambitious task of developing, building, and launching modern area air-defense destroyers. These ships are similar in design and function to the American AEGIS Burke destroyers and are used to protect large task forces, particularly carrier battle groups from mass air assault by aircraft or missiles.
Captializing on joint exercises and partnership programs with the United States Navy in the 1990's. where Red Chinese officers were actually allowed onboard American Aegis ships to observe their operations, and relying on technology that has been pilfered through dual technology methods, espionage and the rising capabilities of Chinese researchers themselves (who are now very well funded), the Chinese are now building a new class of destroyers, the Type 52C, Lanzhou guided missile destroyers. These vessels will employ Phased Array radar acquisition and targeting systems similar to Aegis and their own long-range, vertical launch missiles. These vessels are meant to be the equivalent of the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burk class destroyers. Two are currently being built simultaneously and it is expected that the Chinese will build at least two more, while developing an even larger and more capable class of vessels which may be intended to rival the vaunted American Ticonderoga class Aegis cruisers.
Two new Type 52C, Lanzhou AEGIS like destroyers under construction
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Got to run to an eye doctor appointment now...will check back in on this later.
It's not up to me to wonder why ... ;o)
It's a rusted out hulk in disastrous shape (it wasn't sealed properly and was left open to the elements for years) and very little was completed on it besides the basic hull.
One could only hope the PRC would be stupid enough to try to put it back into service. Would probably take more time and money than building a new one.
Given construction time, the immense amount of time to figure out and train for the intricate dance of carrier operations, you're probably looking at 15-20 years for the PLAN to have anything even vaguely resembling real carrier capability.
Continue the push for expansion of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force
By themselves, with no US involvement, the Japanese Maritme Self-Defense Force would absolutely kick the living bejesus out of the PLAN right now. And the Japanese are increasing their capabilities faster than the Chinese.
The best example was the "Alpha" submarine---a titanium-hulled, super-fast attack sub supposedly capable of 45 kn. One small problem: we later learned that it could ONLY attain this speed for VERY short bursts. The sub, like a drag racer, had to be towed to its patrol lanes. It could not sustain its speed for any length of time, and it was known in the Navy as a "grenade": pull the pin and watch it blow up.
Or consider the MiG-25 "Foxbat," once thought to be a terrifying B-1 killer because of its high speeds. Yet we learned that it was still using vacuum-tube technology; had a terrible turn radius; and could go straight like a bat out of hell . . . but do little else well.
I'm not saying that the Russkies and Chinese can't build quality stuff. I am saying that it is as great a danger to overestimate an enemy's capabilities as it is to underestimate them.
However Underestimating an enemy will get you killed! Simple! Going into a fight thinking that "it is just the Chinese" will only lead to your family receiving a letter of condolence. It is better to go to war expecting a strong enemy (and prepared for one) and finding a 60 pound weakling, than to go in with hollers and backslaps, making jests about the opposing force, only to get your collective a$$e$ handed back to you.
Before WW2 the Japanese were mocked and ridiculed as ineffective half-witted sots who could not even hold a rifle correctly (actually the Japanese air wing was allegedly not able to 'fly straight' because of the 'way their eyes were shaped).
That was until Pearl Harbor made people realize that the so called 'Japs' had some teeth.
China is biding is time. IS it the threat it insinuates it is (although China actually tries to downplay its capabilities .....)? Maybe it is, and maybe it is not. Remember the Chinese adage that the essence of warfare is deception. However one thing that is for sure is we should not point fingers and laugh in jest lest one day, a decade or less from now, we learn of the inept ludicrous Chinese sinking one of our ships.
Cyn, you posted a comment about the Chinese not having any combat experience since 'they were crushed by the Japanese in the late 1800s.' True, quite true indeed. Just remember that when dealing with China one needs to look at the macro picture. While we have only been a superpower for less than a century the Chinese have more or less been a powerhouse, on and off, for a long long time. And they want to be numero uno once more.
Overestimating an enemy often leads to either paralysis or vast over-spending when money can be used for other weapons.
While the Chinese experience level with this equipment will be very much inferior to the decades and decades of practical experience the United States Navy has, there is no doubt that the Chinese are embarked on a path to challenge that experience and heretofore dominance of the U.S. Navy in the region at some point.
Everything presented is factual and this very pertinent fact about experience is also pointed out clearly.
Wouldn't be the first time a relatively unexperienced navy tried to challenge one with much more experience.
But, by all accounts, the SU-27 and the Sovremenny vessels are very capable platforms and the Sunburn and Yahkont missiles are giving our people some headaches.
The Chinese have to address our CBGs in order to be able to project any appreciable power into the China Sea and beyond and make it stick. It is a nut no one has been able to crack and they are certainly not there yet. In fact, short of some very significant breakthrough similar to what I talk about in Dragon's Fury with the supercavitating weapons, they are not going to do it trying to match us stroke for stroke with carriers and missiles IMHO. (Unless they can bankrupt us first). That plays to our strengths. They will have to come up with some mixture of asymetrical means and conventional means and you can bet they are working on it and we need to be prudently prepared and maintain our advantage.
Their new Ohsumi class amphibious assault ships (shown below), coupled with their Aegis destroyers (License built Burkes) are definitive moves in that direction.
It's not clear that how far we are going to encourage them in doing this at this point. Some memories are still long.
I don't see the evidence that justifies that conclusion.
They are preparing to fight us & win.
Yawn. This same tired canard gets drawn out over and over. The economic relationship between the two countries is far too important jeopardize with anything more than quivering sabres.
(Make no mistake. This was not about money. Clinton was and is a Communist agent recruited and run by the Soviet Union and passed to Communist China.) Communist China's naval build-up is just one of the results.
See your doctor immediately. Your dosage needs to be increased dramatically, possibly even a new prescription.
I agree. Our experience and capability at damage control are legend...and have been for many decades.
As regards the Nazi fleet...the Japanese had the 2nd best fleet, not the Nazis...and they played hell with us for a while.
I don't think they have the time they need to get up to second best before history's alarm clock goes off.
Yet to be determined...but I hope you are right. They are pouring money, effort, research and manufacturing into this as it is, as this material make clear.
Please reread my post.
Different country, same result in World War II (us vs. the Japanese)...but they did play havoc with us for some time.
That's what the article is really about.
A potential agressor like Red China developing similar capability moves the balance away from that.
A potential agressor like Red China developing similar capability moves the balance away from that.
In 1981, when the Ohio conducted its first sea tests vs. our own ASW, it was so quiet our own ASW couldn't find it. We knew then that the Soviets had no chance of ever detecting these boats. It was one main reason we did not press for the longer-range Trident II missile . . . the extra range simply wasn't needed.
As to its sea-worthiness, it was towed half way around the world through some major gales and arrived safely.
It would be far cheaper to take such a vessel, refit and complete it to something akin to its original intent, particularly if the Russians are willing to help...than to design and build a new one from scratch. The Varyag is a proven design that is working for the Russians (the Kusnetszov) and where the Russians have more limited funds for maintenance and training, the Chinese would be in a position to pour more into it I believe. My guess is, given the history of dealing with the Chinese, the Russians would be willing to deal for hard currency.
The Russians are doing just this with the Indians, with another, older carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov, which was a predecessor to the Kuznetzov and Varyag,and that sat around a lot longer than the Varyag.
Now, as to whether this is what the Chinese actually want to do or not is yet to be seen and is anyone's guess. IMHO, they certainly are taking a good look at it though.