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The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia
JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | January 6, 2004 | Jeff Head

Posted on 01/06/2004 9:05:14 AM PST by Jeff Head

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA
By Jeff Head, January 2004

In the 1990's the Poeple's Republic of China embarked on an unprecedented military buildup to modernize their aremd forces, increase their qualitative functioning and put them in a position to be able to better carry out the geo-olitical dictates of the Red Chinese government. This necessarily includes being able to develop themselves to a point that they could credibly confront the other armed forces in the region who may stand in the way of those geo-political directives, in particularly the United States.

The buildup has covered the spectrum of military forces, from strategic rocket forces (ICBM's), tactical rocket forces (SRBM's), ground forces, air forces and naval forces. It is being accomplished with monies that would otherwise have bankrupted the earlier marxist and maoist market economies, and while maintianing their communistic/marxistis political heiarchy. Capitalizing on the low cost labor force that they have opened up to the western world, the Red Chinese are obtaining the influx of capital necessary to maintian their military buildup. Thye are also making adept application of Sun Tsu philosophy (where makes clear that all warfare is deception) to amass staggering western trade defficits (meaning the west is on the deficit end) which are reaping them the tremendous capital and technological capabilities to continue and to achieve their military goals.

In conjucntion with the capital gains, through research and development, blackmail, importation of dual use technologies, bribery and out and out espionage, the Red Chinese have also markedly increased their technological and qualitative capabilities many fold over the last several years. This has allowed them to rise from a point in the early to mid 1990's where they were 25-30 years behind US technology, to a point today (less than fifteen years later) where their newer systems are challenging American capabilities in some areas, and posing a credible threat in others.

While not an exhaustive study, the focus of this article is to examine and present the recent developments in the Chinese Navy (PLAN) which are putting them into a position to credibly challenge the United States Navy in the region.

The Chinese Navy has historically been without any sea-based naval air component. Like the Soviets before them, they have historically relied heavily on land based naval strike aircraft to attack and defeat opposing at-sea naval forces in the region. They have had no aircraft carriers. However, like the Soviets before them, the Chinese have come to see the desirability and necessity of developing sea-based naval air forces if they plan to project power very far from their own shores. In recognition of this, over the last ten years, they have purchased and studied at least three different carrier designs. These ships have been acquired through various strategmns including purchasing them for scrap and then bringing them to Chinese naval yards for study and purchasing them for supposed economic reasons, like making a floating casino out of a former Russian carrier, and then again bringing them to China for study. The two carriers bought for scrap are not suitable for refitting and making operational, but they would have provided Chinese shipbuilders and designers with invaluable knowledge so they can augment their own future naval plans.

The latest carrier obtained in this fashiopn is the most troubling. It is the Russian carrier, the Varyag. The Varyag is.a relatively modern design and could be made into something that is very capable. It was towed to the Dalian Chinese naval yards where it is currently being studied for anything but a floating Casino. Given the Chinese capital capabilities, it could easily be refitted and made sea worthy (it was towed at sea from the Black Sea to China) or it could provide the technical basis for a wholly indigenous Chinese carrier.


The Vayrag Entering Chinese waters


The Vayrag birtrhed at Chinese naval shipyards

The Vayrag is not something to be taken lightly. Fully equiped it would approach a 65,000 ton displacement and embark 40-50 modern jet fighter and attack aircraft. As such, it would be the equal (it is in fact a newer design) to the Russian Kuznetzov and would be the largest carrier in the world outside of America's super-carriers. Operating within range of ground air support and with the appropriate escort vessels, it would pose a credable threat in the China Sea and particularly in the Formosa Straits. The Chinese have been purchasing, and are now license building, SU-27 fighter bombers in China which could be used on the Vayrag and their new J-10 aircraft might also be suitably modified for carrier operations. If the Chinese were to complete this carrier and then augment it with designs of their own to the point where they were producing several of them, the balance of power in the region would shift dramitically.


Red Chinese produced SU-27 Aircraft (J11)


The Red Chinese J-10

But do the Chinese intend to do this?

That question can be answered by determining if the Chinese are developing and fielding the necessary escort and support vessels and infrastructure to protect and augment any carrier they develop.

The answer to that questions is an umittigated, yes!

The Chinese have embarked on an ambitious and unprecedented development and ship building program of modern destroyers and frigates that would allow for the creation of powerful carrier battle groups similar to those fielded by the U.S. Navy once they produce a carrier. These include multi-role combat vessels, area air-defense vessels (similar to American Aegis vessels) and support vessels. They have also purchased very capable, modern large surface combatants from the Russians.

The Sovermenny class destroyers were produced by the Soviets in the late 1980's to specifcally threaten U.S. carriers. The Chinese have purchased four of these vessels and refitted and renamed them the Hangzhou class. The Russians modernized the design throughout the 1990's before their sale to the Chinese and they are an example of the type of equipment the Chinese are purchasing with their new found wealth and technology (mostly ammassed from trade with the United States and other western countries). These ships are very capable, mulit-purpose guided missile destroyer and carry the Sunburn and Yahkont surface to surface missiles which were specifically designed by the Russians to attack U.S. super-carriers and defeat the Aegis air defense system. These vessels aslo have a credible medium-ranged anti-air defense system suitable for their own protection, or close in protection of other vessels.


A former Sovremmenny class now saling as the PLAN Hangzhou

To augment the multi-role capabilities of the Hangzhou class, the Chinese have done a very thorough job of development themselves, producing their own modern designs. This started in the 1990's with modernization of the numerous, but older, Luda class of destroyers. It then proceeded to the development of the newer Luhu class desroyers in the mid-1990's and the evolution of that class into the newer and more capable Luhai class by the late 1990's. It is now finally producing their new Typer 52B, Guangzhou class of vessels. With a displacemnt approaching 7,000+ tons and modern anti-surface, anti-air and anti-submarine weapons systems and using proven Russian Top Dome and other acquisition and targeting sensors, this design represents a modern Chinese version of the Russian Svremmenny and indicates the Chinese commitment to being self-sufficient in their naval development and power projection capabilities. This design is a very capable design and cannot be taken lightly by U.S. war planners. Currently the Chinese have launched two of these newer vessels and are projected to build up to eight of them.


The new PLAN 168 Guanghou destroyer


The second Guanghou destroyer being built

In addition, the Chinese are developing a new, stealthy Type 054 class frigate that will be capable in the anti-air, anti-surface and anti-submarine roles. Similar to the role of the earlier U.S. Perry class frigates, but much newer, more stealthy and an apparent attempt to beat the Americans to the Litoral Combat Ship role, these new frigates are already being built and launched in Chinese shipyards.


The new Type 54 PLAN Frigate

In order to provide the area air coverage necessary to protect a carrier in the modern war-at-sea environment, the Chinese have also embarked on the very ambitious task of developing, building, and launching modern area air-defense destroyers. These ships are similar in design and function to the American AEGIS Burke destroyers and are used to protect large task forces, particularly carrier battle groups from mass air assault by aircraft or missiles.

Captializing on joint exercises and partnership programs with the United States Navy in the 1990's. where Red Chinese officers were actually allowed onboard American Aegis ships to observe their operations, and relying on technology that has been pilfered through dual technology methods, espionage and the rising capabilities of Chinese researchers themselves (who are now very well funded), the Chinese are now building a new class of destroyers, the Type 52C, Lanzhou guided missile destroyers. These vessels will employ Phased Array radar acquisition and targeting systems similar to Aegis and their own long-range, vertical launch missiles. These vessels are meant to be the equivalent of the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burk class destroyers. Two are currently being built simultaneously and it is expected that the Chinese will build at least two more, while developing an even larger and more capable class of vessels which may be intended to rival the vaunted American Ticonderoga class Aegis cruisers.


Two new Type 52C, Lanzhou AEGIS like destroyers under construction

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TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Free Republic; Government; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: armsbuildup; asia; authorjeffhead; china; chinesemilitary; jeffhead; miltech; plan; powerprojection; redchinathreat; usnavy; westernpacific
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An article I published today about the rising Red Chinese naval capabilities.
1 posted on 01/06/2004 9:05:15 AM PST by Jeff Head
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To: All
Rank Location Receipts Donors/Avg Freepers/Avg Monthlies
31 Utah 150.00
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Thanks for donating to Free Republic!

Move your locale up the leaderboard!

2 posted on 01/06/2004 9:06:37 AM PST by Support Free Republic (If Woody had gone straight to the police, this would never have happened!)
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To: joanie-f; Dukie; Squantos; JohnHuang2; k.trujillo; Travis McGee; Critter; Lurker; harpseal; ...
FYI...an article I published today while working on Volume V of my series.

Got to run to an eye doctor appointment now...will check back in on this later.

3 posted on 01/06/2004 9:06:57 AM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Jeff Head
Bump
4 posted on 01/06/2004 9:07:56 AM PST by knighthawk (Live today, there is no time to lose, because when tomorrow comes it's all just yesterday's blues)
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To: Jeff Head
Thats very intresting.
5 posted on 01/06/2004 9:09:49 AM PST by Dubya (Jesus saith unto him, I am the way, the truth, and the life: no man cometh unto the Father,but by me)
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To: Jeff Head
Thx for posting this. 'Pod
6 posted on 01/06/2004 9:14:22 AM PST by sauropod (Excellence in Shameless Self-Promotion)
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To: Jeff Head
Thank you so much for the article!
7 posted on 01/06/2004 9:16:17 AM PST by Alamo-Girl
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To: Jeff Head; FL_engineer
YIKES -- thanks for posting this and for the ping.

Especially, thanks for taking our heads like one would a 2 year old's head to ensure attention is focused where it needs to be . . .

ping for FL engineer, fyi in case.
8 posted on 01/06/2004 9:28:09 AM PST by cyn (http://www.terrisfight.org)
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To: Jeff Head; 4ConservativeJustices
Thanx for posting this--bttt
9 posted on 01/06/2004 9:29:50 AM PST by Ff--150 (What is Is)
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To: Ff--150; Jeff Head
If the Chinese were to complete this carrier and then augment it with designs of their own to the point where they were producing several of them, the balance of power in the region would shift dramatically.

It's not up to me to wonder why ... ;o)

10 posted on 01/06/2004 9:33:22 AM PST by 4CJ (Dialing 911 doesn't stop a crime - a .45 does.)
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To: cyn
Not a particularly balanced portrayal of the PLAN.

Some key aspects:

1) Chinese Naval forces are utterly devoid of ANY combat experience, whatsoever, since they were crushed by the Japanese in the late 1800s.

Too often people spend too much time counting beans and technology and ignore things like experience and training, which is far more important than ANYTHING else.

2) The overwhelming majority of the PLAN is comprised of old, worthless crap.

The desire to bash Bill Clinton seems to get in the way of objective analysis of the Chinese Navy around here, for some reason.
11 posted on 01/06/2004 9:35:27 AM PST by John H K
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To: Jeff Head
BUMP Glad you are keeping up on this. *Anyone* ever contact you to discuss this stuff or see your research?
12 posted on 01/06/2004 9:36:14 AM PST by Libertina (If it moves, tax it. If it doesn't move it's a sitting duck - tax it TWICE!)
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To: Jeff Head
Bump for careful read in a little while!
13 posted on 01/06/2004 9:37:45 AM PST by Travis McGee (----- www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com -----)
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To: Jeff Head
Good article.

The Communist Chinese consider the U.S their primary enemy. They are preparing to fight us & win. And they are doing it with our money & technology.

One of Clinton's legacies is his wholesale treason of massively transferring critical technology to the Communist Chinese. (Make no mistake. This was not about money. Clinton was and is a Communist agent recruited and run by the Soviet Union and passed to Communist China.) Communist China's naval build-up is just one of the results.

Our counter-strategy needs to be kick-started. Not only do our Naval forces need to be expanded, but we must aid & integrate our allies.

We must quit messing around about Taiwan. Allow Free China to buy the equipment they have been clamoring for. Continue the push for expansion of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force plus South Korea's and the Republic of Philipine's navies. Make overatures to India. And start holding massive integrated naval exercises with these and ANZAC navies.

The dragon is awakening, and he is hungry.
14 posted on 01/06/2004 9:40:06 AM PST by DakotaGator
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To: Jeff Head
The latest carrier obtained in this fashiopn is the most troubling. It is the Russian carrier, the Varyag. The Varyag is.a relatively modern design and could be made into something that is very capable.

Nope.

It's a rusted out hulk in disastrous shape (it wasn't sealed properly and was left open to the elements for years) and very little was completed on it besides the basic hull.

One could only hope the PRC would be stupid enough to try to put it back into service. Would probably take more time and money than building a new one.

Given construction time, the immense amount of time to figure out and train for the intricate dance of carrier operations, you're probably looking at 15-20 years for the PLAN to have anything even vaguely resembling real carrier capability.

15 posted on 01/06/2004 9:40:10 AM PST by John H K
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To: Jeff Head
Do you ever get anyone in the government to listen to you?
16 posted on 01/06/2004 9:42:51 AM PST by CasearianDaoist
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To: DakotaGator
Our counter-strategy needs to be kick-started. Not only do our Naval forces need to be expanded, but we must aid & integrate our allies.
You could cut the strength of the US Navy in half and it would beat the snot out of the PLAN in a few days, for the foreseable future.

Continue the push for expansion of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force

By themselves, with no US involvement, the Japanese Maritme Self-Defense Force would absolutely kick the living bejesus out of the PLAN right now. And the Japanese are increasing their capabilities faster than the Chinese.

17 posted on 01/06/2004 9:43:33 AM PST by John H K
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To: John H K
"The desire to bash Bill Clinton seems to get in the way of objective analysis of the Chinese Navy around here, for some reason."

Well, gee, it was Bill Clinton who almost singlehandedly allowed China to become the threat it is. It was Bill Clinton who gave the go-ahead for the Chinese Navy to establish facilities in Long Beach, California.
18 posted on 01/06/2004 9:48:00 AM PST by ought-six
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To: Jeff Head
Jeff, just ordered vol. 4.
19 posted on 01/06/2004 9:50:26 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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To: Jeff Head
Jeff, just as a caution---and I worked on Soviet weapons threats as my secondary area for about 15 years, mainly Soviet naval developments---what often appears as "highly capable" or "advanced technology" on the surface has almost universally proven to be far less capable once we found out the "innards" of these systems.

The best example was the "Alpha" submarine---a titanium-hulled, super-fast attack sub supposedly capable of 45 kn. One small problem: we later learned that it could ONLY attain this speed for VERY short bursts. The sub, like a drag racer, had to be towed to its patrol lanes. It could not sustain its speed for any length of time, and it was known in the Navy as a "grenade": pull the pin and watch it blow up.

Or consider the MiG-25 "Foxbat," once thought to be a terrifying B-1 killer because of its high speeds. Yet we learned that it was still using vacuum-tube technology; had a terrible turn radius; and could go straight like a bat out of hell . . . but do little else well.

I'm not saying that the Russkies and Chinese can't build quality stuff. I am saying that it is as great a danger to overestimate an enemy's capabilities as it is to underestimate them.

20 posted on 01/06/2004 9:57:05 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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