Posted on 01/07/2004 8:49:26 AM PST by blam
'Expect al-Qaeda to attack every 3 months'
January 07 2004 at 01:27PM
Singapore - Al-Qaeda is expected to launch attacks every three months in 2004, with growing threats from a number of smaller terrorist organisations, an international terrorist expert warned on Wednesday.
"As the memory of September 11 recedes, the West is likely to witness another mass casualty attack on Western soil," Rohan Gunaratna told a south-east Asian outlook forum in Singapore.
Before September 11, the network launched an attack every two years, but since then, there has been one al-Qaeda-linked attack every three months, he said.
Singapore-based Gunaratna, the author of Inside al-Qaeda: Global Network Of Terror, said that the bulk of the attacks will come from groups trained and financed by Osama bin Laden and not the network itself.
"The threat of terrorism and its associated groups will persist throughout 2004," he said in his paper.
Gunaratna said that maritime targets were vulnerable to attack but added that "almost all the attacks will be suicide vehicle bombings, an al-Qaeda hallmark."
If left unchecked, Gunaratna said Iran, part of American President George Bush's axis of evil, could emerge as a training ground for al-Qaeda terrorists.
He said groups that remained a threat include Al Ansar Al Islami in Iraq, Jemaah Islamiyah in Southeast Asia, Al Ansar Mujahidin in Chechnya, the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Salafi Group for Call and Combat in Algeria.
"Small, disparate organisations mounting operations are in many ways Osama bin Laden's greatest achievement," said Gunaratna.
'There are several MILFs, all using the same name'
In south-east Asia, Gunaratna claims a fresh batch of Jemaah Islamiyah terrorists, an al-Qaeda funded regional group, will graduate on January 15, 2004 from a camp in the southern Philippines.
The camp he said, is run by the secessionist Moro Islamic Liberation Front, or MILF, which is fighting for an independent Muslim homeland in Mindanao.
He did not elaborate on the number of "graduates" or where he gleaned his information from.
Sidney Jones, the Indonesian project director for the International Crisis Group - a Brussels-based international think tank - supported Gunaratna's assessment on the Philippines being a Jemaah Islamiyah training ground.
"There are several MILFs, all using the same name," Jones said, adding that these factions were not the same as the group now in peace negotiations with Manila.
Despite the arrest of Jemaah Islamiyah's alleged operations chief Hambali in Thailand last year, she said there were a number of key group operatives still at large, including Azahari Husin and Nordin Mohamed Top.
The two men are accused of planning the October 2002 Bali bombings that killed 202 people. - Sapa-AP
If that is the case, then eventually the American people will get fed up with it, and stop listening to the liberal Dimocrats altogether. After we nuke Mecca, and a few other key cities in the Arab world the Muslims will be hollerin' "Uncle."
Yup, send'em a Notice of intent to seize notice.
While Al Qaeda is far from defeated, 2004 is shaping up as a potential make-or-break year for bin Laden and the boys. The terrorist organization that established itself as the only one capable of launching major attacks on U.S. soil hasn't been able to mount one since 9/11--and not for a lack of trying, either. That's one reason Al Qaeda is having money problems. Middle-class Saudis and other casual backers of Al Qaeda are having second thoughts, and are less likely to give money to an organization that (in their view) may be past its peak. And eventually, some of the Al Qaeda surrogates may grow tired of doing bin Laden's bidding as well. As the score new successes against the central network, we can begin devoting more resources to the various Al Qaeda affiliates. And, at some point, the cost of being associated with bin Laden will outweight the potential benefits, and Al Qaeda may find it more difficult to recruit willing surrogates.
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