Many see Bush immigration proposals as non-starter (Proposal Faces "Fierce" Resistence In House)

Reuters ^ | 01.07.04 | Alan Elsner

[Pubbie]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush dived into a heated political debate on Wednesday by proposing to create a class of legal "guest workers" in the United States, but analysts said it was doubtful the blueprint could gain congressional approval in this election year.

In a carefully balanced speech, Bush proposed giving some of the estimated 8 million to 14 million illegal immigrants in the country a way to gain three-year temporary work permits, but offered them no clear path to becoming U.S. citizens.

"Our laws should allow willing foreigners to enter our country and fill jobs that Americans are not filling. We must make our immigration laws more rational and more humane," Bush declared.

The proposal seemed calculated to win Bush Hispanic support ahead of the November presidential election while pleasing employers looking for workers to fill mainly manual, agricultural or low paid service jobs.

"The hype and misinformation that this speech will fuel in the immigrant community will be huge. Unfortunately, the excitement will far outweigh the real effect," said Jeff Goldman, an immigration lawyer with Testa, Hurwitz and Thibeault in Boston.

Bush was at pains to declare he was not offering amnesty for people who entered the United States illegally, but opponents of making concessions to the immigrants said that was exactly what he had done.

"This clearly is an amnesty. It provides not only amnesty but a reward for people who committed a felony by coming here illegally," said Rep. Elton Gallegly, a California Republican.

"There will be substantial opposition from Republicans, Democrats and millions of ordinary Americans once they realize what's involved," Gallegly told Reuters.

CAUTIOUS BACKING

While the proposals won some cautious backing from Hispanic groups and immigration backers, some analysts were doubtful that Bush would put much political muscle behind them in the face of fierce opposition from many in his own Republican political base.

"I don't think it's serious. Bush knows the politics. These proposals don't go far enough for most Democrats and they go too far for around 70 to 100 Republicans in the House of Representatives," said Steven Camarota, research director at the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors more stringent limits on immigration.

"Republican leaders in Congress won't want to bring up this issue, especially this year, because it divides them. Unless Bush twists their arms hard, this is going nowhere," he said.

Legal and illegal immigration to the United States, already at record levels in the 1990s, accelerated further after 2000 despite the economic slowdown, according to U.S. Census data.

From 2000 to 2002, net immigration to the United States averaged around 1.4 million per year, about half a million of whom entered or stayed in the country illegally.

Bush, who won around 35 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2000, would like to raise that proportion to 40 percent or higher this year. Even if he does nothing to push the proposals, the President will be able to incorporate them into his campaign message aimed at Hispanics.

"This makes no sense except political sense. It reeks of bad policy but screams of politics," said David Ray, assistant director of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a group campaigning for sharply reduced levels of immigration.

FAIR argued that the plan undermined homeland security, granted an amnesty for law-breakers, established a back door immigration program and threatened the jobs and wages of American workers.

On the other side of the debate, immigration backers were disappointed that the plan offered no clear path for illegal immigrants to become citizens.

"The initial proposal falls short in helping newcomers become fully integrated into our society, but we look forward to working with the administration and Congress to shape the final legislation," said Leonard Glickman, president of the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society, the country's oldest migration organization.

[futureceo31]

Has not happened yet. This was the same cries when he did CFR and no child left behind. He promised CFM, education reform, immigration reform in his campaign. Just forgetting about it is not going to make the issue go away and deporting all illegal immigrants is not going to happen. So someone has to stand up and "TRY" to do something about it. I would much rather have Bush do it than a Dim...thats for sure...

[WOSG]

I am confused. Isnt the 'free market' a system where companies try to find the lowest bidder and workers try to find the highest wage?


So this is the free market. hmmm.

[org.whodat]

And, IMO, they do perform the jobs that nobody except felons, who can't get anything else, want.

That is not true. The economics is was taught says's that if you cannot get someone to work at a certain level you raise the pay. Next, all those little illegals that come here under this amnesty deal will have little women whelping and what is the legal status then?

[CA Conservative]

Not really. Non-citizens don't enjoy the same rights as citizens -- though the 14th amendment does give them some level of rights.

True, but the right to a public education is one of those that the courts have already upheld, whether or notwe agree with that.

[CA Conservative]

Next, all those little illegals that come here under this amnesty deal will have little women whelping...

You are the type of person that gives conservatives a bad name. That is a very demeaning and derogatory turn of phrase, implying that these people are animals of some sort, less than human.

BTW, under this program, they won't be "illegals".. get that through your head.

[StoneColdGOP]

He meant Drivers' Lisc. In most states all you need to vote is to show ur Driver's Lisc. Thank you for playing.

Soon to be made MUCH easier in Califonia once Mr. Schwarzenegger signs the "right version" of the law to give illegals licenses.

[hedgetrimmer]

Non-citizens have more rights in public education than citizens. In California the average dollar amount per year spent on a citizen child is roughly $3500. The amount paid per immigrant child is $7000. To attend college in California, if you are an out of state American citizen, you have to pay out of state tuition which is often double or more of in state tution. Illegal immigrants pay in state tutition, and often get the tab picked up for their education completely.

So you see, non-citizens really do have an advantage.

[Penny]

MESSAGES SENT to all you listed plus those from my own address book. Thanks for the reminder and list!
Regards,
Penny

[KantianBurke]

Silly Rabit! Laws, taxes and rules are for chumps!

[Prime Choice]

[ASA.Ranger]

You have made some great points!
Thank you for letting me use your following comment as segway to some other thoughts.

"And, IMO, they do perform the jobs that nobody except felons, who can't get anything else, want."

A job that pays adequately may be one that a U.S. American will want. The huge number (perhaps eight million) of illegal aliens works to keep wages in many occupations (jobs U.S. Americans “don’t want”) artificially low. U.S. Americans may choose those occupations if the true value of the task was calculated and paid. Special interest groups strive to keep wages associated with ‘easy labor’ artificially low. Would we be paying more for a head of lettuce if a decently paid U.S American picked it? You bet. However, local government entities struggling with the cost of human services associated with illegal aliens would decrease. Do we want to pay 50% more for a head of lettuce or keep paying for the never ceasing increases in human services nominally associated with illegal aliens? One may choose not to buy certain agricultural products and forego a maid and landscaping but we all pay for most of the services rendered to the illegal aliens. Do illegal aliens pay tax? Many do and many do not. The actual focus of the concern is if they pay enough tax. Depending on the source of the statistics one may argue either way. I suggest that the lower the wages the lower the taxes paid and the higher the amount of Earned Income Tax Credit refund. The IRS is concerned with tax, not the citizen status of the filer. Illegal aliens may file and receive refunds using a number (not a social security number) reserved for tax purpose. After my years of experience as a Federal Officer in L.A., I believe that the larger percentage of illegal aliens cost the U.S. citizens more than they could possibly pay in to the system. A decent wage for picking lettuce (and other artificially low wage jobs) may render all above moot.

Oh, by the way, I perceive that the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is at least a problem of magnitude equal to and many times (frequency of illegal activity) greater than high income earned cheaters and corporate misdeeds. A flat tax will never work until the recipients of EITC are weaned from this teat. Then it may be a problem to intelligently address the Schedule A medical, charitable and home interest deductions with the tax paying public at large.

[telebob]

Seems to me that this is a setup for Vicente Fox, the Mexican oligarchs and the Atzlan crowd. They have been outfoxed by the master.

This crap isn't going anywhere. Bush may earn some style points from hispanics but unless he carries legislation to the congress, it's a dead letter.

Mexico needs to fix its crumbling economy. The US needs to secure its borders and reform immigration. At the moment, Mexico has nothing we want or that will further our interests. The Mexican government cannot stop cross border crime and smuggling. They encourage the illegals.

There is no advantage to us to create an amnesty for lawbreakers. Bush has put the ball squarely into the peoples' court, the congress. When they fail to pass legislation, Fox and company are sunk. The people will have spoken.

[Kevin Curry]

Angela Kelly, Deputy Director of the National Immigration Forum--an aggressively pro-immigration group--is on CNN. She says her group believes President Bush's plan will result in an increase in the number of undocumented aliens. Why? Because at the end of three years, instead of going home they'll go underground again. She says Bush is going to have to go ahead and allow them to get full citizenship or we'll have a bigger problem on our hands.

[Pubbie]

I hope you're right.

[YankeeReb]

THE SCHEME SETS UP A STRUCTURE TO LET COMPANIES PUT LABOR OUT THE LOWEST BIDDER!

And the problem with that is...???? I belive that is called "capitalism", a very conservative concept.

The problem is you're basically stacking the deck in favor of the employer. The reason there are so called "jobs that americans won't do" is because usually these jobs have very low pay and no benifits. As long as you keep a flood of people coming in from the third world who will work under those conditions, there's no reason for the conditions to change. If you pay someone enough, you'll have people willing to do any job. Americans will do the work, but a person living even a modest middle income lifestyle can't afford to work for $5.50/hr with basically no protections on the job.

If you were running a job such as asbestos removal, for example, and you didn't feel like paying extra $$$ for things like safety equipment and resparators who would you rather hire an american citizen with all the rights and protections afforded under OSHA and the EPA or an illegal mexican, who won't dare complain for fear of deportation? Take the same scenario, who's more likely to demand higher wages for hazardous work? Again, it isn't that americans are too lazy to work, but they won't work under slave conditions.

[futureceo31]

I dont think thats going to happen. How do we track illegal immigrants now? HOw to get them into boats or cars or whatever we have to do to send them back? At least this gives us an oppportunity to stop the floodgates...

[gooleyman]

The workers are going to find a way to be here anyway.

-----
This is the same argument that the drug legalizers use. They're going to use drugs anyway, so let's legalize it and reduce crime. He thinks he's taking DemocRATS arguments away for the election, but with this one, I believe, he is only hurting himself and giving the third partyers amunition against him. The DemocRAT's voters are not going to desert them, but borderline Republicans sure will desert Bush over things like this.

[Tempest]

How is it an amnesty??? Could someone elaborate on the details of how this plan would lead to amnesty?