Bin Laden Tape: Gloom & Doom (Stratfor)

Stratfor ^ | 1/7/04 | Stratfor

[HardStarboard]

>>>> if Bin Laden comes forward publicly, apologizes, denounces violence, and begs for forgiveness, dissent against our War on Terror would be legion.<<<

If that happened, Dean would propose U.S. college scholarships for anyone able to prove they are an Islamofacist or wannabe suicide bomber.

Wesley, not to be out done, would agree and propose inclusion of of Hamas, Hezbolla, Black September, and Islamic Jihad in the plan.

Kerry, would claim that all these proposals are useless unless these new students can afford to take America up on the plan....his proposal of $1,500 per month for each student will be hailed as true conservative compassion.

I could go on, but I'm feeling ill.

[Southack]

LOL!

[Tauzero]

cool piece

[Grampa Dave]

He is dead,Jim!

Now, we kill all of those under him. Decapitilize the al Qaeda financiers, and finish the regime changes in Iran, Syria, N Korea and ?.

[okie01]

No, I think Al Qaeda will strike where it thinks there will be no retaliation. I think they will strike france.

I'd give your guess the top odds if I were running a Vegas casino.

The supposition about avoiding retaliation is correct, I believe. But I doubt France would be the one.

France seems to be some kind of "safe house" for the terrorists. They stage through there, they have planning sessions there. But they never conduct operations there.

It would appear that there is some sort of tacit understanding between the terrorists and the French authorities, a quid pro quo -- a mutual "don't hassle us, we won't hassle you" policy.

Great Britain, Spain, Italy, Australia...any U.S. ally in the WOT would be asking for trouble, too.

Germany? Maybe. Canada...???

We pretty well know what the U.S. response to a "dirty bomb" in Toronto would be. But would Sheikh Abdul bin al-Wahabi know?

He does know, however, than security arrangements in Canada are a joke. That there is no lack of terrorist cells for local support. And that there is absolutely no danger of Canada retaliating. Moreover, Canada is next door to the The Great Satan -- as if to say, "You're next".

The RCMP needs to have its antennae fully extended.

[Southack]

Well said. Casinos probably have Canada right up there near France on that list, I'd guess.

[T. Jefferson]

The release of a new tape by Osama bin Laden is always an important event. The most recent one is particularly important because of the tone it takes.

The echoes in the cave are decidedly deadened, and the impersonator clearly doesn't have the cadence or resonance in his command. Give us strength Allah, the virgins in the sky have been deflowered...and me thinks Howie the Midget Dean wears diapers and will lose 48 states..

[lainde]

I agree...Very interesting! BTTT

[ThanhPhero]

OBL is already dead. Been dead. Will stay dead for the foreseeable future. It is highly likely that his bodyguards knocked him off as many Asian sources claimed shortly after US went into Afghanistan. He didn't even make it to Tora Bora. It is, however not in US best interests for him to be dead at the moment.

[blackbart.223]

"It is, however not in US best interests for him to be dead at the moment."

And why not? I'm all ears.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Bin Laden concedes that Sept. 11 failed to achieve al Qaeda's strategic goals. In fact, events since then have moved in just the opposite direction.

Bin Laden misread the Americans - as if we'd cow and succumb. Well that would have happened in the Clinton administration and under Howard Dean.

[fourhorsemen]

Bin Laden misread the Americans - as if we'd cow and succumb.

Bin Laden read Americans perfectly - where he completely failed was in misreading Arabs, who he thought would rise up against the Americans when they sent their forces after Al Qaeda. His goal was to cause an anti-American uprising in the middle east which would lead to the toppling of pro-american regimes. As Stratfor points out in earlier assessments, we acted exactly as Bin Laden had hoped, however the rest of the Arab world fell in line as we demanded.

[fourhorsemen]

OBL is already dead. Been dead. Will stay dead for the foreseeable future. It is highly likely that his bodyguards knocked him off as many Asian sources claimed shortly after US went into Afghanistan. He didn't even make it to Tora Bora. It is, however not in US best interests for him to be dead at the moment.

And yet he's releasing tapes commenting on the capture of Saddam Hussien.

[fourhorsemen]

France seems to be some kind of "safe house" for the terrorists. They stage through there, they have planning sessions there. But they never conduct operations there.

The Libyans blew up a french airliner back in the 1980's. There was a thwarted plan to crash a plane into the Eiffel tower, and the Ried shoe-bombing plot was against a plane leaving Paris.

[GOPJ]

Arabs who can't jump on the right bandwagon don't survive. When Arabs perceive we're winning, it'll be over.

Osama miscalculated the American response -- his best game plan is mystic. If he takes us on again, local Arab leaders will off him before we get the chance. They're getting tired of paying the piper for Osams's dances.

Bin Laden concedes that Sept. 11 failed to achieve al Qaeda's strategic goals. In fact, events since then have moved in just the opposite direction. The problem was the lack of political preparation in the Islamic world. The weakness among Arab regimes generally and Saudi Arabia particularly meant that the U.S. response -- rather than triggering massive anti-American resistance -- resulted in broad-based collaboration.

[Beck_isright]

If anyone, has studied or spent any time in this region, you must realize their ultimate goal:

The re-establishment of the great Arab empire of the 8th-12th centuries.

Attacking the U.S. is viewed as an extension of an attack on the House of Saud. AQ knows that. Thus why the Eurocowards have thus far been immune. Israel is also irrelevant. A study of the Koran and Islamic history indicates that the liberation of Mecca and Medinah are much more critical to the radical Arab movements. This is a civil war waiting to happen and the original tribes outside of the House of Saud have chosen sides. It is only a matter of time before the infighting begins. Fill your tank up now and every week until then....

[ThanhPhero]

Somebody is doing tapes.I don't think it's OBL and I don't think the army will tell us that. This is war and disinformation is a necessary part of war. Without his body or his DNA it is better that he be considered as alive and functioning lest the world and our on Crats rise up to scream that OBL is dead the war is over bring the troops home. So long as he is "alive" they get little audience for that sort of thing. Many of the Joe Blows of the US and the world see this as a criminal manhunt rather than as a war because that is how the government presented this sort of thing before 9-11. It is still PC to not allow animosity towards Islam and Moslems the way our press and government demonized nips and krauts in WWII so we have to keep an individual supervillain for that purpose. Yes. OBL could could possibly remain alive but I doubt it. If a vlear videotape is issued starring OBL that indicates conclusively that he is alive, with, say, a current newspaper in the picture and no evidence of creative splicing, then I would accept that he is alive. But AQ doesn't do videos any more. They are harder to fake than audios.

[ThanhPhero]

see # 37

[livius]

One of the ways that ETA (the Basque terrorist organization) kept itself alive was by appearing to "repent" and renounce violence every so often, at which point, all the leftists would drool all over it and announce that it wasn't that bad after all, just misunderstood. And then another bomb would go off...

[kanawa]

We pretty well know what the U.S. response to a "dirty bomb" in Toronto would be.

What would it likely be?