Bush Pulls Off Shrewd Stroke (Immigration strategery is a coup de main)

The United Press International ^ | January 8, 2004 | Martin Sieff

[quidnunc]

President George W. Bush's proposed immigration reform plan may prove to be a masterstroke from a maestro political strategist playing at the top of his game. It may backfire on him, but it probably won't.

The reform plan has already provoked strong attacks from Democrats and Latino activists who say it does not go far enough and the critical voices have been particularly loud in crucial California. It will also increase strains the president's policies have already generated in the Rocky Mountain libertarian West, his archrival John McCain's stronghold in the 2000 Republican primary race.

But at the end of the day, unless the two huge decisive issues of the economy and national security turn catastrophically sour on the president, these critiques will probably bounce off him like any criticism off the Teflon back of Ronald Reagan.

-snip-

[WOSG]

"Deporting millions of illegals would cost trillions of dollars, putting the military on 16,000 miles of border would require at least 500,000 troops."

okay. we need some kind of LINK to point to so we can debunk this nonsense without repeating ourselves...

First, the border of concern is 2,000 miles, along with Mexico. Second, the use of technology like motion sensors along with simple, cheap and effective walls can make it secure.

Given the points made below, how can you claim that border enforcement cant be good public policy???


http://www.polanalysis.net/PCVol5Is172OrreniusCoronadoImmCrime.shtml

This point is best illustrated by looking at the impact on crime of two major border enforcement offensives in the early to mid-1990s: Operation Hold-the-Line in El Paso in 1993 and Operation Gatekeeper in San Diego in 1994. As Chart 2 shows, in the year following the introduction of Hold-the-Line in El Paso, property crime rates fell 17.6 percent (the national rate declined only 1 percent). In the year after Gate- keeper was introduced, property crime rates in San Diego fell 16 percent (the na- tional rate declined only 2.3 percent).

...The lesson in this analysis is that until border enforcement initiatives impact the en- tire Southwest border, crackdowns in one area may result in fewer crimes in that vicinity but also in a redistribution of crimes to other areas. For example, in the years that Hold-the-Line and Gatekeeper were introduced, the neighboring counties of Hudspeth, Texas, and Imperial, Calif., both experienced relatively large increases in their crime rates. These second-order effects have already been apparent in the changing geographic pattern of illegal immigration. The traditional migrant gateways of Tijuana–San Diego and Juárez–El Paso have been replaced by migrant flows through smaller, less patrolled towns in Arizona and South Texas.


http://www.polanalysis.net/PCVol5Is284TancredoImmigration092403.shtml

As an immigrant, one comes to the United States and really does not have to work. But if he does work and earns a small amount of money, we will pay him in the form of something called the earned income tax credit. Many, many immigrants, both legal and illegal, thousands in fact, hundreds of thousands by the latest count, actually file income tax forms for one purpose, to obtain the earned income tax credit. They file income tax forms, not to pay taxes, because they do not pay taxes for the most part. They do not make enough money, but they will claim a certain number of people as dependents. Even when they work here illegally, they still file income tax forms.

In this connection, we found evidence of recent illegal-alien traffic in what are called pick-up sites--places throughout the desert in the Southwest where illegal immigrants gather. As they come across the border on foot, they gather at certain areas to be picked up by some sort of vehicle--a truck or a car--and taken into the interior. These pick-up sites sometimes are places where literally thousands of people will have gathered over a period of time, and the sites are strewn with lots of trash and tons of human waste. Among all the litter indicating a recent illegal-alien presence, we found plenty of IRS forms.

As we were going through one of the pick-up sites, I happened to look down, and I saw IRS forms laying on the ground, and I picked them up. I still have them in my office, and I will never forget what I discovered. One guy had filed his income tax, using a fake Social Security number, but received, as we found out later, after checking it out, a check from the U.S. Treasury. He filed an income tax claim that he had made $7,800 in the course of the year. He listed five dependents, all of whom lived in Mexico, but were given taxpayer identification numbers by the IRS. (All you have to do is request a number for a dependent, whether he exists or not, and who knows whether the informa- tion provided is true, if the purported dependent is in a different country.) The illegal immigrant filed the form claiming five dependents in another country, using their ITIN numbers, and stated that he paid $94 in taxes on the $7,800 he earned, or claimed he earned. On the form, he claimed $3,800 in earned income tax credit.

[RLK]

Bush is dancing with the 82% that did vote for him...

--------------------

They're getting danced all right.

[FITZ]

Maybe this is a big trick on the illegals --- a lot of them have plans to stay forever (not all do --- some plan to go back home when they can) but to get a blue card --- a good portion of them will likely tell the government exactly where they're living and working --- and agree to a 3 year stay.

[PuNcH]

What "Migrants" do with their money is not my business or yours.

Uh okie, but that is not the point. The point is they are basing themselves in mexico. They have a home. There money goes further in mexico then it does here. Thats why they sent 6.3 billion home last year. Follow the money, they certainly will.

We wont have to round them up.

I might buy that there wasn't 8 to 12 million illegals here already, To enforce the laws currently on the books would not put employers in jail,

We have to track all these same illegals and more for the guest worker program. Maybe the proposal needs tougher enforcement on employers and controlling welfare and then we throw the rest of the proposal out.

[hchutch]

NOTHIGN even beat immigration...

It is a 2% issue. The top three (economy, terrorism, Iraq) are all in our favor.

[JackelopeBreeder]

I'm sure they'll be screaming "apartheid" if they don't get enough of what they want.

To tell the truth, I would agree with them. I believe anyone entering this country under the orderly and legal provisions of our laws should have the same opportunities.

The absolute last thing we need is a semi-temporary servant class. That is one small step removed from slavery.

At the same time, I do not enjoy the spectacle of watching our pissant political parasites take the wuss option: "It's too hard to enforce." Baloney. Or bologna, take yore choice.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Nope, the 18% made themselves irrelevant. Their guy lost so nobody is accountable to them. You dance with the guy that brung ya and the 18% tried to bring a guy that never made it to the floor.

Bush is dancing with the 82% that did vote for him... the purists that knifed him in the back are welcome to sit down, shut up and be grateful to the 82% smart enough to vote him in and keep Gore OUT of office.

Politics in the real world... your guy loses so you have no voice with the politician who wins.

Harsh... but: both truthful AND fair. :)

[WOSG]

No, the 18% Conservatives not voting for Bush are the foolish ones who imagine that in a nation of 280 million they can wait for someone who agrees with them 100% and not support anyone else, and that will somehow help Conservative causes. NOT.

I think some of those fools actually would *like* Gore President so they have something they can *really* whine about.

[Jodi]

*sigh*

[Jodi]

buy a sense of humor, please!

[SerpentDove]

There are a lot of questions I have about this.

I think I have a reasonable amount of "street smarts," and I can' t imagine these people suddenly motivated to "turn themselves in" to the UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT to be photographed, I.D.'d and otherwise put on record for deportation later. That makes no sense.

These are details that so far have not been addressed in the slightest way, at least that I have seen. I know details would have to be ironed out, but if this is a trial balloon, you would think a "brilliant strategerist" would have a more solid explanation of his plans, particularly in light of the highly negative reaction this is getting.

That is, if you presume Bush is being honest and really wants this, and it's not the legendary brilliant "strategery" we hear about all the time.

I'm really tired of trying to decipher if Bush is being "brilliant" or being "honest." For example, did he or did he not sign the CFR bill with the idea of it being killed in the courts?

If that was a piece of "brilliant strategery," it had to be the stupidest piece of "brilliant strategery" I have ever seen. If he signed it because he believed in it, even though it was unconstitutional and limits free speech, that is even worse.

But honest to goodness, to this day I can only guess at Bush's motivations for signing CFR. I will probably never know the truth.

I voted for him, but the days of trusting George Bush blindly went by the wayside a long time ago, for me.

[WOSG]

Dittos ... these 3rd party folks are real ameteurs at politics, but pros at losing friends and influencing nobody in power.

I sure wish more Conservatives would understand that Unity is Strength and act accordingly.

[longtermmemmory]

You to know when to hold them.
know when to fold them

There will be time enough for countin'
when the dealings done.

[FITZ]

I wonder if there would really be put into place a mechanism that after the 3 years, the legal-illegal would be sent home. Does Bush mean that in 3 years most of these currently here illegals will really be leaving this country? There would be even less excuse for this not to be enforced since the government will have their addresses. In three years, we should easily be able to end welfare because there would be 8 million newly available jobs.

[longtermmemmory]

The bisnesses will ignore this new law. Why should they legalize anyone. You have to advertise for US citizen or legal employees, then certify, then send the applications for the "guest" workers. THEN you have to pay withholding and taxes. Fugedaboutit.

Unless you can 1099 them, it is just not worth it.

[FITZ]

To be honest --- if I was an illegal, I'd just keep laying low, and not go through this process. Not all the illegals ran out and got their government's matricula card for this kind of reason. They don't trust their government with their USA addresses.

[WOSG]

"I might buy that there wasn't 8 to 12 million illegals here already, To enforce the laws currently on the books would not put employers in jail, all we see now is an all expense paid trip back to Mexico that each and everyone of us pay for."

ON THE CONTRARY. One solution component should be this:

5. Create verifiable documentation for use in employment to stop
documentation fraud. Set up a national database for document verification
so document fraud is tracked down. Require employers to verify
employment and hold employers responsible for hiring illegal aliens.
" One simple change could put teeth into the law. Employers should be
required to confirm that the Social Security number presented
by a worker has in fact been issued to that worker.
A computerized database, much like the nationwide
instant-background check used to verify gun buyers,
could handle that job easily.
Such a database already exists, but it is seldom used. " - Jay Bookman
6. Pass laws and use verifiable documentation to end immigration benefit
fraud as well. It is rampant (see the GAO,
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d0266.pdf)

Put all this together, add the fact that the fines to employers to hire illegals could be made quite large, and you have sharply reduced documentation fraud and ended the current farce where employers turn a blind eye towards obviously fraudulent documentation.

[WOSG]

What about this as a good second step?

Changing the incentives for illegal aliens and immigration:
1. Granting automatic citizenship to the children of illegals born in
the US must end. Children born here of foreigners should not automatically
become US citizens, unless their parents are *legal* residents of this country.
2. End all federal public assistance to non-citizens except emergency health care
Abolish requirements that hospitals must serve all those, including
illegal aliens, who show up at emergency rooms.
Per federal law (Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act),
no one can be turned away for basic emergency services. Amend it
so labor (and health) services are not a Federal requirement unless the woman
can show legal residency status.
Having a child is not a life-threatening condition.
3. Abolish the adult parents and siblings of immigrants from
getting in on family sponsorship and getting at the head of the line.
End chain migration.
4. Defund federal bilingual education programs.
5. Prohibit affirmative action benefits for non-citizens

[Edit35]

"But, if we continue with this jobless recovery, the majority of voters may not care if the economy is growing at 8% a year, or 80%, if few middle-class jobs are created and many are continuing to be off-shored.

I keep hearing this "jobless recovery" baloney.

By my math, the unemployment rate has dropped by one-half a percent, from 6.4 to 5.8 percent, in the past six months.

If the American job force is about 150 million, like they say, that is an increase in 750,000 jobs!!

Stop falling into the Democrat trap. Besides, I think the Labor Dept. is being buffaloed and there are more jobs being added than they account for.

Why? I think that many people surveyed by the Labor Dept. have such hatred for President Bush that they knowingly fudge their employment figures just to make things look worst than reality.

I can't prove it, but if I was a betting man, I would put a lot of money on the fact I was right.

[SerpentDove]

Exactly.