American Research Group NH TRACKING POLL: Dean 28% - CLark 22% - Kerry 18%- Edwards 8%

americanresearchgroup.com ^ | 01/17/2004 | americanresearchgroup

[KQQL]

2004 New Hampshire Democratic Tracking

3-Day Results Jan 9-11 Jan 10-12 Jan 11-13 Jan 12-14 Jan 13-15 Jan 14-16

Clark 19% 20% 22% 24% 23% 22%

Dean 36% 34% 32% 29% 28% 28%

Edwards 3% 3% 3% 5% 6% 8%

Gephardt 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3%

Kerry 10% 11% 13% 15% 16% 18%

Lieberman 10% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6%

Undeclared (%) 31% 31% 30% 30% 30% 30%

Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points

Beyond Ballot Preference - January 17, 2004 The following table summarizes the changes in ballot preference (in percentage points) by party for the tracking ending January 9 to the tracking ending January 16. Democrats represent 70% of the total sample and undeclared voters represent 30% of the total sample.

For example, in the tracking ending January 16, 19% of likely Democratic primary voters registered as Democrats say they will vote for Wesley Clark. This is unchanged from the January 9 results (0 change - Clark was at 19% on January 9 among Democrats). Among undeclared voters, 29% say they will vote for Clark. This is an increase of 5 percentage points from January 9 (Clark was at 24% on January 9 among undeclared voters).

Among Democrats, 33% say they will vote for Howard Dean, which is down 2 percentage points from January 9 (Dean was at 35% on January 9). Among undeclared voters, 15% say they will vote for Dean, which is down 21 percentage points from January 9 (Dean was at 36% on January 9).

[KQQL]

@

[ClintonBeGone]

Dean is going to crunch them all. These 'polls' are silly when you consider the caucus style set up.

[Petronski]

NH is not a caucus.

[loudmouths]

It looks like the undecideds will crunch them all.

[KQQL]

NH is a primary

[ClintonBeGone]

NH is a primary

Ahhh, my bad :)

[Pubbie]

*Ping*!

Dean has stabilized in NH.

If Dean wins Iowa then it's all over.

[deport]

New Hampshire (Primary Date: January 27, 2004)
Poll	Dean	Clark	Kerry	Lieberman	Edwards	Gephardt
RCP Average (1/9-16)	31.2%	21.6%	14.0%	8.3%	5.5%	3.0%
ARG Tracking (1/14-16) | Historical	28%	22%	18%	6%	8%	3%
Boston Globe/WBZ (w/o 1/12)	32%	23%	12%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Suffolk University (1/12-13)	32%	17%	12%	11%	3%	3%
Boston Herald/RKM (1/11-12)	29%	20%	15%	7%	5%	n/a
SurveyUSA (1/9-11)	35%	26%	13%	9%	6%	3%
Concord Monitor(1/6-8)	34%	14%	13%	7%	4%	7%
ARG (12/15-17)	45%	8%	20%	6%	2%	3%
SurveyUSA (12/14-16)	45%	11%	15%	11%	6%	4%
UNH/WMUR (12/10-15)	46%	10%	17%	7%	4%	3%
Suffolk Univoiversity (12/5-7)	35%	10%	12%	6%	5%	5%
Franklin Pierce College (12/1-4)	39%	5%	14%	4%	5%	3%
ARG (11/30-12/3)	45%	11%	13%	5%	3%	5%
Zogby (12/1-3)	42%	9%	12%	7%	4%	3%

---

ARG Tracking Poll
Date	Dean	Clark	Kerry	Lieberman	Edwards	Gephardt
January 14-16	28%	22%	18%	6%	8%	3%
January 13-15	28%	23%	16%	7%	6%	3%
January 12-14	29%	24%	15%	7%	5%	4%
January 11-13	32%	22%	13%	9%	3%	4%
January 10-12	34%	20%	11%	9%	3%	4%
January 9-11	36%	19%	10%	10%	3%	4%
January 8-10	35%	20%	10%	9%	3%	4%
January 7-9	35%	21%	10%	8%	3%	4%
January 6-8	35%	20%	11%	8%	3%	5%
January 5-7	35%	18%	12%	8%	3%	6%
January 4-6	36%	16%	13%	7%	3%	6%
January 3-5	37%	14%	14%	7%	3%	6%
January 2-4	39%	12%	14%	6%	3%	6%

 

[KQQL]

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[JohnnyZ]

Looks to me like Clark - Kerry - Edwards will split the anti-Dean vote in NH and give Dean the win.

[OldFriend]

Meaningless until after the Iowa phoney baloney caucii.

[pgkdan]

Looks like Clark's momentum has been stalled. I wonder if it's because of his pro-war Congressional testimony, his pro-Bush Times op-ed piece, his over the top call for the President's impeachment or just because he's now been in NH long enough for folks up there to realize he's just plain nuts?

[KQQL]

he's just plain nuts

[pgkdan]

You're right. Things are really going to heat up in NH next week. I expect Dean to launch an all out attack on Clark. Goodness knows he's got enough to go after him with. This should be very entertaining.

[Congressman Billybob]

As I have written before, Dean Campaign Manager, Joe Trippi, is an excellent mechanic with a total lack of ethics. Therefore, I expect Trippi to engineer a result in the Iowa caucuses that puts Dean about 5% above the last pre-caucus polls.

So, Dean wins Iowa, New Hampshire and then South Carolina, with different unDeans placing second in each state. So, by early February ut will be clear that Dean owns the nomination, and Bush owns the general election.

Congressman Billybob

Click here, then click the blue CFR button, to join the anti-CFR effort (or visit the "Hugh & Series, Critical & Pulled by JimRob" thread).

[OldFriend]

Unless he is sure he'll win, then he'll not savage Clark but choose him for his veep.

Funniest line tho was when Clark was asked about beeing veep to Dean......he said NO, it would be a bottom heavy ticket!!!!!

[glockmeister40]

I hope your're right about Dean getting the nomination. I want him to take control of the 'rat party from the clintons. There's no doubt he'll drive it into the ground. What I don't want is Clark getting the nomination. He'll pick hillary as his vp. If he would win the presidency, he should expect to have an accident, Ft. Marcy Park style or a "plane crash", Ron Brown style.

Hillary knows that Rudy Gullani will beat her in the 2006 senate race - she has to make her move now.

Dean is the best bet for conservatives - we should actually give money to him: He'll take the party away from the klintons and get his ass kicked in nov 2004. Rudy then beats hillary in 2006 and the klintons disappear down the sewer from whence they came.

[Right_in_Virginia]

So, by early February ut will be clear that Dean owns the nomination, and Bush owns the general election.

I (really, really) hope you're right.

[The Wizard]

Clark is the biggest asshole out there, and that saying something....

[pgkdan]

Unless he is sure he'll win, then he'll not savage Clark but choose him for his veep.

Nah...Dean really does see Clark as a Republican. i think Edwards is going to end up on the ticket, no matter who wins the nomination. Except of courese for Clark...he's already been told that if he wins Hillary is running with him.

[OldFriend]

There is no way on earth that Clark can win........he's certifiably insane.

[pgkdan]

There is no way on earth that Clark can win........he's certifiably insane.

LOL! I agree that Clark's insane...but since when has that been an impediment to victory in the democRAT primaries?

[BillyBoy]

>> Lieberman 10% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6% <<

Nice to know Democrats have so much loyality to the "real" Vice President of the U.S. < /sarcasm>

[JLAGRAYFOX]

The whole Democrat caucus/primaries is just plain boring. A poll over the last few days shows that a large majority of Democrats don't have a clue who their candidates are! Probably never will either. They are all worthless! The only interest in this race is with the media. It should be cancelled due to lack of interest from the voters!

[OldFriend]

You can be a lying scheming slickster, a womanizer, a groper, a crook........okay for the dems.....but a nutcase?????

[B-bone]

"Hillary knows that Rudy Gullani will beat her in the 2006 senate race - she has to make her move now."

For Hillary to remain a "viable" candidate, she has to avoid a loss in 2006. That doesn't necessarily mean that her only option is to run for President in 2004.

Another option would be for her not to run for reelection in 2006, particularly if it looks like a close race.

"I am exploring the option of running for President in 2008. George Bush has completely destroyed the country my husband built in 8 years of struggle. We must rebuild this country again. It would not be fair to the people of New York for me to be reelected as their Senator if I could not finish my term. After much heartache, I have reluctantly decided not to run for reelection to the Senate from the state of New York. . . ."

All you need is a sympathetic press.