Posted on 01/29/2004 7:08:07 PM PST by spetznaz
Like a bad penny, the F-16 issue has turned up at every summit meeting between Pakistan and the US for the past decade. Life would become a lot simpler for both countries if the General turned toward a more reliable supplier who wants Pakistan’s business
To no one’s surprise, the US turned down General Musharraf’s request for the F-16s. The precise number of aircraft that were requested for the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is not known, but it is believed to have been between 28 and 71. There were rumours that the Pentagon had already committed to supplying the F-16s prior to Musharraf’s arrival in the US. It was left to President Bush to squash these rumours. At Camp David, he acknowledged that Musharraf was brave enough to ask for the aircraft.
Pakistan’s case for acquiring the F-16 is self-evident. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF), which had a qualitative edge over its Indian counterpart for decades, has fallen woefully behind. If the conventional imbalance of power between Pakistan and India erodes any further, it will raise the risk of nuclear war.
The PAF operates 19 combat squadrons, comprised of some 350 aircraft. The fixed-wing aircraft include aging Mirage III-E and V variants of French origin, several of which have served in the Australian Air Force; Chinese variants of Soviet MiG-19 and MiG-21 aircraft, retrofitted with western avionics and fire control systems; and about 25 F-16s delivered in the 1980s.
The Indian Air Force (IAF) operates 42 combat squadrons, comprised of some 800 aircraft. The IAF inventory bristles with state-of-the art hardware, including Russian MiG-29s (equivalent to F-16s) and SU-30s (equivalent to F-15s), French Mirage 2000s and the Anglo-French Jaguar strike aircraft. A key strength of the IAF is its airlift capability, comprised of 12 fixed-wing aircraft squadrons and 11 helicopter squadrons. India plans to acquire about a 100 British Hawk jet trainers, filling a major gap in its inventory. The Indian Navy also operates 37 fixed-wing combat aircraft and 72 helicopter gunships.
India has equipped nearly two-thirds of its armed forces with Russian hardware. In late 2000, Russia clinched a $3.3 billion deal granting India a license to produce 140 Su-30MKI jet fighters. It is also upgrading the Indian fleet of MiG-21s, with Israeli assistance. In addition, Israel is providing laser-guided bombs, unmanned aerial vehicles and two Elta Green Pine long-range radar systems, a component of the Arrow Ballistic Missile Defence System. India also plans to purchase the S-300V air defence complex from Russia and lease four Tu-22M3 backfire bombers capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Moscow has offered the aircraft carrier, Admiral Gorshkov, with a full complement of carrier-based MiG-29s to India for $500 million.
Most ominously, the US has cleared the sale of the Israeli Phalcon AWACS to India. Reports indicate that three such systems mounted on Russian IL 76 platforms are planned for induction into the IAF. This will represent a quantum leap forward in India’s ability to project power. The Phalcon system is judged to be vastly superior to the Russian Beriev A-50 platform that was previously leased to and operated by the IAF.
The advantage of the IAF over the PAF has increased manifold over the past two decades. This poses a serious threat to Pakistan’s national security, since the IAF is now in a position to impose local and strategic air supremacy within days of the outbreak of hostilities. The experience of the Six Day War in 1967, the Gulf War in 1991 and the recent wars in Afghanistan and Iraq demonstrates the pivotal role of air power in modern warfare. The only wars where air power has not been successful are protracted wars in which the weaker side uses guerrilla tactics, such as the wars fought in Vietnam and in Afghanistan against the Soviets.
To bridge the gap with the IAF, the PAF needs 100 frontline fighters. Pakistan should be wary of accepting F-16s from the US, even if they are offered. The original batch of 40 F-16s was designed for use against the Soviets during the Afghan war. Had they been used in a war with India, the US would almost certainly have cut off the supply of spares to Pakistan, like it had done during the September 1965 war. At that time, the mainstay of the PAF was the F-86 Sabre jet. Pakistan had received 120 of these versatile fighters as part of the Military Assistance Program during the 1950s. However, as subsequent documents have revealed, the US never intended Pakistan to use them against India. They were deployed to contain the communist threat from the Soviet Union and China. Once hostilities commenced with India, the US imposed an arms embargo on Pakistan. This had little effect on India, but effectively crippled Pakistan’s ability to carry on with the war.
To avoid an encore performance by the Americans in a future conflict with India, it would be best for Pakistan to seek munitions from another source. What are the options?
China is not an option, since it depends on Russia for the SU-30 strike fighter to counter Taiwan’s F-16s. Domestic production by Pakistan of an aircraft based on Chinese technology is not an economically viable solution. Russia makes a variety of aircraft that would be of interest to Pakistan, but it is unlikely to jeopardise its long-standing ties with India.
Sweden’s Saab JAS-39 Gripen fighter is an attractive option, and is worth pursuing. A more attractive option is France, with whom Pakistan has a long history of military cooperation dating back to the late 1960s. France has provided Mirage III-Es and Vs to Pakistan, Crotale surface-to-air missile batteries and Daphne and Agosta submarines. It has also granted Pakistan a license for the manufacture and export of the missile-capable Agostas.
The French make a variety of exciting fighter aircraft, including the Mirage 2000-5 and the Rafale. Either of these would make an excellent substitute for the F-16s that are unlikely to show up and will be a liability even if they did.
Like a bad penny, the F-16 issue has turned up at every summit meeting between Pakistan and the US for the past decade. After being denied the aircraft at Camp David, President Musharraf said that Pakistan would get them eventually from the US. Life would become a lot simpler for both countries if the General simply kissed the F-16s goodbye, and turned toward a more reliable supplier who wants Pakistan’s business.
Dr Ahmad Faruqui is an economist and author of “Rethinking the National Security of Pakistan”. He can be reached at faruqui@pacbell.net
Two, even if they were offered the planes they would not amount to much. F-16As that the Pakistanis would be getting would be no match for a mixture of Israeli-made Phalcon 'Awacs' radar platforms and Russian-bought Su-30MKIs. And once you add the S-300 platforms India has then any thing that takes off from Pakistan is picked up by the Phalcon and Elta-Green radar systems and would be promptly brought down. Pakistan has no analogue for such systems.
Now, the article does have some points. IF I WAS A PAKISTANI (note the emphasis) I would prefer to have a source that would not potentially stick an embargo up my @$$! In this respect France would be perfect! Those guys will sell anything for ca$h! The US would not stand up to any Pakistani B.S, and virtually every other country that sells military hardware tends to stay away from Pakistan since selling to those fellas means not selling to India (and India is a much bigger market). Thus Pakis are left with China and France.
Anyways ...whatcha guys think?
Now, Russia depends a whole lot on sales to India for funds. It would not do anything to risk that. A good example on this would be how Germany wanted to sell some D/E subs to Taiwan, but after China made some major noise declined to do so.
If Pakistan can make their own nuclear device, couldn't they make their own fighter jets?
Well let's look at the fundamentals:
The Indian Air Force (IAF) operates 42 combat squadrons, comprised of some 800 aircraft.
The PAF operates 19 combat squadrons, comprised of some 350 aircraft.
I can't figure out why either of these nations are squandering their resources on so many planes.
So why don't we just keep our noses out of their squabble and let them duke it out on their own if that's what they want to do?
Interesting
And in case you are wondering ....i am NOT about to post pictures of some 'super-duper hyper-space laser-armed bazooka-ardorned stealth RUSSIAN fighter-jet from the fourth dimension.' LOL
Hope you are doing fine ....
Besides which, if India were invaded, every credit card number and bank account record in America would fall into the invaders' hands.
Pakistan only has France as its source for 'western' arms (and China to meet the rest).
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