Kerry 45% Bush 44% Rasmussen 1/29/04 1500 likely voters

rasmussenreports.com ^ | 1/30/04

[finnman69]

Kerry 45% Bush 44% Election 2004 Presidential Ballot

Survey of 1,500 Likely Voters January 27-29, 2004

Bush 44% Kerry 45% Other 6% Not Sure 6% RasmussenReports.com

--------------------------------------------------------- Election 2004 Presidential Ballot

Bush 42% Democrat 49% Other 3% Not Sure 6% RasmussenReports.com

---------------------------------------------------------

January 30, 2004--Massachusetts Senator John Kerry has taken a one-point lead over President George W. Bush in the latest Rasmussen Reports tracking survey of 1,500 Likely Voters. On the Friday morning after New Hampshire, the Democrat's front runner attracts support from 45% of the nation's voters while the President earns 44% support. Kerry's lead among Democrats is also growing as the nominating process looks forward to February 3.

It has been a remarkable two weeks for the Senator. He trailed the President by 15-points immediately prior to the Iowa caucuses.

Rasmussen Reports will release more detailed comparisons of how the voting public compares Bush and Kerry later today.

There are several reasons for the Senator's surge. Initially, his gains reflected the fact that Kerry became the front runner on the night of the Iowa caucuses. Another is that the Democrats have enjoyed a surge of positive publicity resulting from coverage of Iowa and New Hampshire.

At the same time, things have not gone as well for the President. Just before Iowa, Bush introduced an immigration proposal that was not well received. His State-of-the-Union address was overshadowed by the Democratic nominating process, and confidence in the economy has been declining.

Some Republicans indicate that they believe the public will eventually reject Kerry because he is a Massachusetts liberal. However, at this point in the process, just 37% of Americans identify the Massachusetts Senator as a liberal. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Americans view him as a moderate while 11% say he is a political conservative.

From this point forward, Rasmussen Reports will continue to monitor the race between Bush and Kerry on a daily basis. However, we will no longer measure ballot tests for other Democrats until and unless the results of future primaries suggest another contender could topple Kerry.

In the race for the Democratic nomination, Kerry now has twice the support of his nearest rivals.

In a match between President Bush and a generic Democrat, the Democrat now leads 49% to 42%.

In addition to our daily political tracking, Rasmussen Reports measures the economic confidence of American consumers and Investors on a daily basis.

The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

[finnman69]

Eye opening. Paging Karl Rove.

[FreedomPoster]

>>Eye opening. Paging Karl Rove.

Oh, poo. Dubya hasn't even started campaigning yet. Kerry's extreme Liberal voting record hasn't been put on display for public scrutiny yet (he's right there with Teddy Kennedy on the American Conservative Union lifetime ratings, both well under 10%).

[kaktuskid]

A worthless poll (remember 1988 and Dukakis)

[RightthinkinAmerican]

What about the Al Sharpton 0.15% swing vote? How would that factor in?

[dwilli]

Hold on to your pocketbook.

[RichardW]

Means nothing, really. Wait until Kerry's fault lines are exposed. He has a lot of baggage.

[RightthinkinAmerican]

What about the Al Sharpton voter 0.15% swing vote? How would that factor in?

[el_texicano]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, and Reagan trailed Dukakis going into the '84 elections...Result: A near clean electoral sweep by Reagan.

[RightthinkinAmerican]

Now dang it!!!!! I didn't even think I hit send the first time!!!!!

[FreedomPoster]

>>11% say he (Kerry) is a political conservative.

This would seem to give us a measure of the number of the horribly confused plus the number of extremist Marxists in our country. Note that you can be A, and not B, but cannot be B, and not A.

[SirAllen]

while 11% say he is a political conservative.

Scary.

[finnman69]

Worthless now, but Bush is going to have to work for re-election.

[keyesguy]

Im glad, the last time Rasmussen said W was leading comfortable we needed elderly jewish voters to vote for Pat Buchanan to win. This is good news.

[RiflemanSharpe]

Hack off the conservative base and watch them stay home or vote for someone else. GWB if you do not believe me go ask your daddy about his second term.

[rabidralph]

They must have polled FR.

[I still care]

Kerry has been in the news nonstop. I think this is natural at this time.

But they need to hammer on Kerry being a liberal. Actually, according to ACU ratings, Kerry's voting record is more liberal even than Kuchinich.

He has a lifetime rating of only 6.

[Wolfstar]

I'd wager there aren't even two people in any random sample of 1000 Americans who know who the heck John Kerry is at this point.

[Lunatic Fringe]

Wait until Americans hear this story....

Just A Gigolo

[TennTuxedo]

The Democrats in the midst oof their primary elections have the center stage. It is expected that their candidates get high marks in the polls. President Bush is lying low awaiting his turn on the stage.

Remember that in 1984, incumbant Ronald Reagan was down 17 points to Michael Dukaikas during the Democrats primary season. If you recall history, Reagan went on to win 48 states in the 1984 election.

Its way too early to panic. There are 10 months left in this campaign.

[Paradox]

MEaningless, let the campaigns operate for a few weeks. The Challenger, at this point, is usually polling better than expected against the incumbent, whose faults are all known and in the open. Wait for Kerry to get exposed...