Kerry-Edwards 2004! (Or, Why 60 GOP Senate Seats are Possible in 2004)

Jan. 30, 2004 | rightcoast

[rightcoast]

The possibility of a Kerry-Edwards Democratic ticket has been put on the table recently for 2004.

I think this is a good thing, if not only for the implications in the 2004 Senate race. The advantage is already on the Republicans' side, but it's actually possible (really!) for the GOP to get the magic 60 number of Senators in this year's election.

To achieve this, all of the following would need to happen:

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First, John Kerry of Massachusetts may retire as Senator early, leaving his seat open for an Republican appointment by Gov. Mitt Romney. This Republican would not be likely to retain this seat in the 2004 election, but the candidate's stature as a sitting Senator would bump this contest into an actual viable race, forcing the Democrats to spend real money in Massachusetts.

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Second, the GOP must re-elect all of the following incumbents back to their Senate seats, which is all quite possible; most are very likely to be re-elected:

Bennett (Utah), Bond (Missouri), Brownback (Kansas), Bunning (Kentucky), Nighthorse Campbell (Colorado), Crapo (Idaho), Gregg (New Hampshire), McCain (Arizona), Shelby (Alabama), Specter (Pennsylvania), Voinovich (Ohio)

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Third, Don Nickles of Oklahoma is retiring, and his open seat must be retained by a Republican, which is likely to happen.

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Fourth, the GOP must make a competitive race out of Illinois open seat (Peter Fitzgerald), drawing DNC money to this race, even though it's probably very likely that the Democrats will gain this seat.

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Fifth, the GOP needs to field strong candidates and smart campaigns in the South, and gain four critical open seats from the Democrats:

Edwards (North Carolina), Graham (Florida), Hollings (South Carolina), Miller (Georgia)

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Sixth, the GOP needs to give Chuck Grassley (Iowa) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) the money and support (i.e. Presidential backing) they need to be re-elected, since both of these candidates face serious challenges to their seats.

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Seventh (and finally), the Republicans need to find strong candidates and adequate funding in order to win 6 of the 9 following Democrat seats. This will be a tough, hard fight to win 2/3rds of these seats, but it is possible, especially if strong candidates in all these races force the Democrats to spread out their resources:

Bayh (Indiana), Boxer (California), Breaux* (Louisiana), Daschle (South Dakota), Dorgan (North Dakota), Feingold (Wisconsin), Lincoln (Arkansas), Reid (Nevada), Wyden (Oregon)

*John Breaux's seat is open for 2004; he is retiring.

[TheEaglehasLanded]

THe way things are looking they'll be lucky to gain 1 or 2 seats, ?'s about the War and Pre War Intel will be fodder the whole year, Investigations galore, Huge budget and Spending problems.

Unless these Corporations and small business start creating jobs, which they should do if they cared anything about helping out Bush for trying to help the economy, all we will have is a tax cut that will be blamed for causing huge deficits and no jobs!!!

[Democratshavenobrains]

Unfortunately, if Romney appointed a Republican, the Dems would never shut up about his illegitamacy.

[Jeff Gannon]

a nice fantasy...have another drink!

[Torie]

Yep, somebody needs their meds. Plus 2-3 seems about right, assuming Bush wins his reelection. If not, there will probably be a gain of about 1 max.

[Chu Gary]

I'm very sympathetic to your wishes but this seems like just way too many "if's." Nonetheless, I do think GWB is going to have some very long coattails. Seems to me the Pubbies are going to pick up a couple of seats anyway in the Senate and perhaps 6 - 8 in the House.

[HitmanLV]

Don't quit your day job. This borders on science fiction.

My most ambitious expectation is

1. Bush/Cheney win with 325-350 Electoral Votes (I think they win in most scenarios)

2. Senate spread benfitting the GOP of 55-44-1, or 54-45-1.

3. House spread benefits from Texas redistricting, to 235-200 (my most ambitious prediction, but doable).

[Pappy Smear]

Grassley from Iowa in a competetive race? That is crack induced fantasy. He is so unbeatable, that the last time, the only thing the Ds could barf up was some UofI prof, who raised all of about 250K dollars. Most legititmate STATE Senator candidates raise that much.

I am less than entralled with Grassley, but put one down for the Rs, from Iowa. Iowa loves incumbents for whatever reason. that is why we (well not me when it comes to Harkin) keep electing R Grassley and D Tom Dung Heap Harkin. And I think Bush will carry Iowa this time too. Not that I am entralled with Bush either.

[mercy]

I'm no longer optimistic about the coming presidential election. The 20% of inteligent, moral and thoughtful Americans who always vote conservative has been raised to 30% perhaps ... due to 9-11-01. However Bush has done such a good job of alienating the right that some of us may just not make it to the polls on election day.

The vast middle, the unaware Americans, are up for grabs as usual ... Kerry/Edwards will look very good to these TV junkies. Especially Edwards. This group of voters is basicly niave and even a bit (maybe more) debased and debauched. They watch sitcoms and are actually swayed by the overwhelming-oversexed-overdramatized mileu of pop culture they are bathed in. Whatever virtue they might posess is eroded further daily. They are losing the belief that terrorism is a real threat. The body bags are scaring them. They have no concept of the real Islamonazi threat and have a media spawned overestimation of the price in lives being paid.

If Al Queda does not oblige us with another horrendous attack I don't Think GWB will win a second term.

[Sonny M]

THe way things are looking they'll be lucky to gain 1 or 2 seats, ?'s about the War and Pre War Intel will be fodder the whole year, Investigations galore, Huge budget and Spending problems.

Sounds somewhere in the neighborhood of the DNC, they're basically saying a GOP pick-up of 2.

I can only guess how they figured that out, but I'm guessing they are writing off Georgia, and assuming they pick up a couple, and the repubs pick up some other empty seats, to make it a GOP net gain of 2.

[Xthe17th]

Kerry...retire early?!? Paging Joe LIEberman

the GOP must re-elect all of the following incumbents... Specter (Pennsylvania)?!? AAAAAAHHHHHRRRRGGGGGHHHH!!!!

the Republicans need to find strong candidates and adequate funding in order to win 6 of the 9 following Democrat seats: HA HA. Yeah right! Well, you left out Ossama Mamma Murray (Washington - George Nethercutt challenging) which may be doable. And Boxer, Dasshole, and Ried ARE vulnerable to very strong candidates, but where and who are they? The rest of these dems are just w-a-y too popular with their people.

Ooooh, pretty colors. See the sounds. Far out. Wheeeee. OK, now put those magic mushrooms away and come back to Earth, rightcoast.

[Sloth]

So, if we get 60 seats, what will the GOP's next excuse be for caving to leftism?

[swilhelm73]

IIRC, Kerry will not have to resign his senate seat unless he wins the Presidency.

I have no idea what the law is in Edwards home state though.

Romney would certainly appoint a Republican, I'm not really sure who though. The only Republicans outside of himself that would have a hope in hell of winning re-election would be William Weld - a horrible choice - or maybe US Attorney Michael Sullivan - a good guy probably too conservative for the state of MA.

OTOH, I think the odds of Kerry winning are fairly remote. Much like his ideological mate Ted Kennedy, his appeal won't be that great outside of New England and perhaps the Left Coast...

[swilhelm73]

HA HA. Yeah right! Well, you left out Ossama Mamma Murray (Washington - George Nethercutt challenging) which may be doable. And Boxer, Dasshole, and Ried ARE vulnerable to very strong candidates, but where and who are they? The rest of these dems are just w-a-y too popular with their people.

I must say I amazed that Murray has a hope of re-election, let alone a strong chance of it, after her Osama/Day Care comments.

I've lived in WA, and I know the Seattle area is hardcore leftwing, but overall the state seemed fairly evenly split with a small advantage to the lefties...and one would think Murray's comments would sway pretty much everyone in the center and even center/left to not vote for her. How much more delusional could a Senator be?

[oceanview]

sure, but who is going to remind anyone of her comments? will nethercutt use them agressively in any ads? you know the media won't touch Murray.

[LdSentinal]

IIRC, Kerry will not have to resign his senate seat unless he wins the Presidency.

He doesn't have to, but he will be pressured to do so.

Lt. Gov Kerry M.Healey would be a viable choice -- Jane Swift would not be a viable choice. Perhaps Celluci, but either candidate would face a touch challenge against Meehan. Barney Frank would be an underdog if he chooses to run.

[swilhelm73]

True enough...one would hope that Nethercutt's staff will play her statements over and over. But Republicans can rarely mount the fire of their opposites in electoral campaigns, even solid conservatives.

The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all convictions, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.

[JohnnyZ]

And Boxer, Dasshole, and Ried ARE vulnerable to very strong candidates, but where and who are they?

John Thune is running against Daschle. That'll be a tight race. Three statewide officeholders in Nevada are playing eenie-meenie-minie-moe to figure out who gets to run. Filing has closed in California, which means the nominee will probably be former Sec State Bill Jones.

[JohnnyZ]

He doesn't have to, but he will be pressured to do so.

Do we know what the laws are with regard to timing of that? Would the seat definitely be up in 2004, or would it wait until 2006? The filing deadline is June 1st -- would that come into play? but I figure Kerry would decide before then regardless.