AP Poll Notes Decline in Support for Bush

ABC News ^ | Feb. 6, 2004 | AP

[FairOpinion]

Washington (AP) - President Bush (website - news - bio) 's public support dropped sharply over the past month, especially among older voters, political independents and people in the Midwest, an Associated Press poll found.

And for the first time, more voters in this poll's two years of tracking the question said they would definitely vote against Bush than said they would definitely vote for him.

Bush's approval rating stood at 47 percent in the AP-Ipsos poll taken in early February, down from 56 percent approval just a month ago. Half, or 50 percent, said they disapproved in the latest poll.

The poll findings marked a difficult month for Bush, as public attention focused on the Democratic presidential primary and the Democrats' daily bashing of the incumbent. The survey came at a time when the public is nervous about the economy and the chief adviser to the administration on Iraqi weapons, David Kay, said last month "we were almost all wrong" about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.

Bush's 47 percent approval rating is the same as his father's at this stage in his presidency 12 years ago before he lost to Bill Clinton.

AP Poll Notes Decline in Support for Bush

Just under four in 10, 37 percent, said they would definitely vote to re-elect Bush as president, while 43 percent said they would definitely vote for someone else, according to the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Another 18 percent said they would consider voting for someone else. Other recent polls have shown Democratic front-runner John Kerry (website - news - bio) with an advantage over Bush in a head-to-head matchup.

A month ago, voters were more inclined to say they would re-elect Bush rather than definitely vote against him by a 41-33 margin.

"Right now, it's a one-sided campaign," said presidential scholar Charles Jones. "The out party is running their nominating process. It's hard for the incumbent to inject himself into the Democrats' campaign."

Bush will make an appearance on NBC-TV's "Meet the Press" program Sunday to talk about his agenda on the campaign against terror and the economy. Bush is likely to step up his campaign against the Democrats once they settle on a nominee.

"We have, from the beginning, recognized that this will be a marathon," said Bush campaign manager Ken Mehlman. "We always anticipated a tough hard-fought contest."

Mehlman said an incumbent president is often at his most difficult point right before it is clear who the opponent will be. "When people focus more on the choice, numbers historically have changed," Mehlman said. Bush's approach of lower taxes, less lawsuits and less regulation will resonate with voters, he said.

The public perception of Bush and of the nation's economy slumped in the early February poll. Just over four in 10 said the country is headed in the right direction, while just over half said the country was on the wrong track. People were about evenly split on this question in early January.

The AP poll says people were more pessimistic about the economy, with consumer confidence dragged down by increased nervousness about the economy's current and future conditions.

Public approval of Bush's handling of the economy dipped to 44 percent, down from 53 percent in early January.

The public's mood took a positive turn after the capture of Saddam Hussein (news - bio) in mid December, and the outlook about the economy is now settling back to levels in November. The drop in Bush's political standing was more dramatic.

Democrats are now as intensely opposed to Bush as Republicans are intensely supporting him. By a 2-1 margin, political independents were more likely to say they would definitely vote against him than definitely support him.

"I think he's run the country into the ground economically, and he comes out with these crazy ideas like going to Mars and going to the moon," said Richard Bidlack, a 78-year-old retiree from Boonton, N.J., who says he voted for Bush in 2000. "I'm so upset at Bush, I'll vote for a chimpanzee before I vote for him."

Exit polls in the Democratic primaries have suggested considerable voter anger at Bush, among both Democrats and independents.

Bush still has the support of many Republicans, including 30-year-old Alicia Bleacher of Lancaster, Pa., a stay-at-home mother.

"We live in difficult times," she said. "He's doing the best he can. After 9-11, he took action immediately, we needed a president who would be decisive."

Bush saw a drop in support among most demographic and regional groups, but those were most pronounced among voters with a high school education or less, voters over age 65, political independents and voters in the Midwest.

Democratic strategist Jim Duffy said Democrats have gained ground because "now there is one focal point. It looks like John Kerry's going to be the opponent."

The AP-Ipsos poll of 1,000 adults was taken Feb. 2-4 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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On the Net:

Ipsos-Public Affairs: http://www.ipsos.com/ap

[FairOpinion]

While it's early and polls aren't all that reliable, etc., etc., I think it shows that there will be a tough election, because the Dems are pulling out all the stops and are attacking Bush day and night.

That's why I think it's important that the Republicans, conservatives and sensible moderates keep refuting the Dems lies, point out Bush's successes, and for heaven's sakes, stop attacking him, to give more ammunition to the Democrats.

How about focusing on all the issues we agree on with Bush and recognizing his accomplishements?

President Bush delivers his remarks at Union Pier at the Port of Charleston in Charleston, S.C., Thursday, Feb. 5, 2004. With his Democratic rivals packed up and gone, Bush visited the Port of Charleston, where he promoted his administration's efforts to keep dangerous cargo out of the country. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

[ambrose]

How's construction going on the Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis Presidential Libraries?

[MJY1288]

Wait until that 200 mil War Chest gets spent, John Kerry will feel like he walked into a Lion's Cage with a Pork Chop suit on

[FairOpinion]

Naturally we are all hoping for a landslide.

However, we can't underestimate the Dems viciousness. Just look at the phenomenal Iraq victory. Instead of a victory, which it was and is, the Dems succeeded in almost painting it as a failure, by their constant harping on the WMD issue, lying, that just because we haven't found them yet, means they never existed.

The point is that we can't afford to become overconfident. Then, AFTER we get a landslide, we can celebrate.

[spunkets]

bandwagon/push poll...

[ambrose]

Of course, if all the "Go Pat Go!" types have their way, the Rats won't have to break much of a sweat in order to win.

There's a lot about the president I don't care for, but the Islamofascist threat is far too serious to be throwing votes away this election.

This time, vote as if your whole world depended upon it.

[FairOpinion]

"This time, vote as if your whole world depended upon it."


.... because it does. For real.

Alan Keyes made the same point.

"But I also wouldn't want to give the impression that I think that anything can be more decisive for the American people right now than the question of our national survival in the face of the most insidious threat this nation has ever faced.

In the face of that, I think a lot of us are going to be putting our other issues behind those issues that have to do with the survival of this nation in wartime."

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1071872/posts

[MEG33]

Applause!

[EternalVigilance]

"I think he's run the country into the ground economically, and he comes out with these crazy ideas like going to Mars and going to the moon," said Richard Bidlack, a 78-year-old retiree from Boonton, N.J., who says he voted for Bush in 2000. "I'm so upset at Bush, I'll vote for a chimpanzee before I vote for him."

Prototype Kerry voter.

[FairOpinion]

And if that guy voted for Bush, then I voted for Gore, by just about exactly.

Many of the liberal Bush haters think that if they claim that, it somehows gives them more credibility.

[EternalVigilance]

Actually, I was enjoying the comparison of Kerry to a chimp.

My apologies to all chimps who may be reading...

;-)

[FairOpinion]

"My apologies to all chimps who may be reading... "

[cat lover too]

Exactly, and on TV they keeping showcasing a lot of these Bush2000 voters who have had an epiphany and now all sprout the democrat's talking points.

Talk about manipulating public perception, here you have it. The funny thing is that AP finds this credible and quotable.

[Texasforever]

Every poll I have seen lately is of "adults". When did they stop polling registered or likely voters? 6 weeks ago, Kerry was just above Sharpton in head to head match-ups with Bush and Dean was within 5 points.

[longtermmemmory]

There is a BIG (HUGE, GIGANTIC, VERY LARGE) difference is lossing "support" and loosing votes. I can tell you that Bush has lost some of the "support" he has had from the people who vote. HOWEVER, he HAS NOT LOST THEIR VOTES.

These polls are tricks to make the upcomming election a ratings boost. If the internal polls show this as a blowout, then what about the jobs of the reporters and their embeds? Hard to be a dunsel democrat.

I would say the Mass courts have gained bush votes. I would also say that kerry's BS politician answer about marriage LOST him "support" and liberal votes.

[longtermmemmory]

I come not to praise the Democrat Party, I come to bury it.

apologies to W.S.

[FairOpinion]

Another 4 years of President Bush and more Dems in Congress, may indeed relegate the Dems to a minority party status for a long time to come.

The November elections are critical to the future of our nation.

[FairOpinion]

Another 4 years of President Bush and more Dems in Congress, may indeed relegate the Dems to a minority party status for a long time to come.

The November elections are critical to the future of our nation.

[longtermmemmory]

Rush has said the strategy is not to just win in 2004. It is to obliterate the Democrat Party.


It is a very very very good goal.

[Mo1]

I wonder what the polls would be like if the AP actually reported the truth???