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Chicom Aircraft Carrier Ping.

Do you think they'll be able to make this work? Carrier aviation is tougher than it looks.

These aren't carriers like we're used to. Seems to me they won't be of much use more than 500 miles off the Chinese coast. Area and sea denial, not power projection, would appear to be their mission. On the other hand, if the steam catapult feature is indeed being added, it would indicate they do intend to operate at least a few heavy strike planes.

Wow, there are some happy submariners out there in attack boats all across the fleet if this is true. Personally, I think it's a mistake for them to expend the massive amounts of resources it would take to build and train even one battle group, let alone three. They have to know their flattops will be stalked from day one by our boats. And, boy, will there be more errors and trials than they can possibly imagine in the development process.

Here's how it might make sense for them. We have to assume that, in true Chinese style, losing one or two of these ships in a Taiwan war would NOT be a conflict ender for them because of their acceptance of casualties, the ability to bring air assets to bear over Taiwan regardless, and the fact that any such conflict would be a "bet the regime" war. So, unlike the US (and the UK in the Falklands) they can play a bit more aggressively with their carriers and try to push an exclusion zone out to the N, S, and E of Taiwan working in combo with their subs (Q: How many Kilos do we think they now have?) and shiny new Russian destroyers. Thus making a US intervention more costly (or at least playing on the fears of d-makers in DC that such an intervention would be more costly) and creating an impression on the Taiwanese mind that resistance is futile (. . . says Locutus).

Two variables govern whether Taiwan would survive a conflict with the PRC: (1) Taiwan's will to stand fast and not accept a Hong Kong style deal. And from how Beijing has treated HK of late, why would they? Still, cowardly pols can betray brave soldiers. See France, 1940. (2) Whether America declares its intention to intervene and then comes in right quick. The latter may well determine the former. If, over a week or so, a Kerry administration hems and haws and goes to the UN and then decides on a show of force, the ballgame might be over. And I've always wondered how America would react to a lost destroyer or two even if they were "exchanged" for a dozen ChiCom tin cans. It's been generations since a US ship was ablaze on the high seas. And there's a psychological component to suffering 150 casualties in the blink of an eye that cannot be overestimated in the days of the 24 hour news cycle and Somalia. While many have noted that post-9/11 America isn't as casualty adverse as she used to be, losing a couple of ships Falklands-style in a war with China (who'd be making an aggressive public diplomacy case about how it was all an internal matter, and Taiwan will be just fine after we occupy it) sure couldn't be passed off as an essential sacrifice in the war on terror.