Electoral College Breakdown, Installment One

Various

[Dales]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For the first installment, the random state generator presented me with North Dakota, Maine, Alabama, New Mexico, and Vermont.

North Dakota

Electoral Votes: 3

2000 Result

Bush 61%

Gore 33%

Background: North Dakota is always a problematic state for my poll tracking, in that it is so rarely, if ever, polled. There are good reasons for this. It is a very small state, with only three electoral votes. It also is rarely competitive. The last time the Democrats won in North Dakota was when Lyndon Johnson trounced Barry Goldwater in 1964. Since then, Republican candidates have carried North Dakota by margins from a low of 7 points (Bob Dole against Bill Clinton) to a high of 38 points (Reagan against Carter). Obviously, George W. Bush had little problem with Al Gore last election cycle.

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: There is zero chance that North Dakota will be a factor in this election. If the election is close nationwide, North Dakota will not be, and if North Dakota is then the nationwide election won't be. Safe Bush

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Maine

Electoral Votes: 4

2000 Result

Gore 49%

Bush 44%

Background: Despite having only a single more electoral vote than tiny North Dakota, Maine gets a bit more attention due to its proximity to the media hotbeds in New England. However, it is rarely listed as a swing state for the coming election, which is a mistake. Bush lost to Gore by only 5 points last time, and over the past 10 elections it has split evenly between the parties. The best way to describe Maine is streaky, as those elections have been Democrats for two straight, Republicans for five straight, and now Democrats for the last three. Perhaps it is because Nader picked up 5% that people assume that Maine will be less competitive this time.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
3/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	36%
9/12-26/03	Critical Insights	Link	600 RV	4.0	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	45%

Punditry: Maine has been tracking the nationwide polls regarding Bush for quite some time now, generally with him lagging by a point or two here. If the election is close nationwide, expect this state to stay close, particularly if Kerry is the nominee. Despite being a New England state, Maine tends to vote for Democrats who are centrist and reject those who are perceived to be liberal. Slight Advantage Democrat.

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Alabama

Electoral Votes: 9

2000 Result

Bush 56%

Gore 42%

Background: Alabama has been a reliable GOP state, only straying twice since 1960; both times it went for a southerner. Jimmy Carter carried the state, as did George Wallace.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
4/27/03	USA Polling Group	Link	RV	5%	Bush	60%	Unnamed Democrat	30

Punditry: This is another state, like North Dakota, which falls into the category of "if this one is close, the election is not". Bush will carry Alabama comfortably. Safe Bush.

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New Mexico

Electoral Votes: 5

2000 Result

Gore 48%

Bush 48%

Background: No state, not even Florida, was closer in the last election than New Mexico. Prior to Clinton breaking through, the Republicans had carried the state for 6 consecutive elections, often by significant margins. Both times that Clinton carried New Mexico, the Perot vote played a significant factor. The strong showing Perot made here suggests that this is a state concerned with Mexico, both from an immigration perspective and from a jobs perspective.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
9/12/03	Research and Polling Inc. of Albuquerque	Link	400 RV	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	43%

Punditry: Simply on the basis of the close election results in 2000, New Mexico is going to be a state to keep an eye on, and the poll from last September indicates that it will still be a battle. I sense, however, that this state will be less friendly to the President this time around due to NAFTA, his immigration proposal, and the popularity of Democrat governor Bill Richardson. Slight Advantage Democrat.

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Vermont

Electoral Votes: 3

2000 Result

Gore 51%

Bush 41%

Background: Vermont went for Lyndon Johnson, then not for another Democrat until Bill Clinton. It has gone Democrat the last three elections (by 16, 22, and 10 points). Third party candidates are a factor in Vermont, even if they do not generally swing the state.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
10/02	Research 2000	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	38%	Dean	50%
10/28/03	Research 2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Dean	34%

Punditry: Vermont has changed dramatically since the days when Ronald Reagan had been carrying the state. The Republican voters there are loyal, but they are simply outnumbered. Safe Democrat.

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Summary Table
	Bush					Democrat
	Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
	ND (3)	-	-	-	-	NM (5)	-	-	VT (3)
	AL (9)	-	-	-	-	ME (4)	-	-	-
Designation Total:	12	-	-	-	-	9	-	-	3
Candidate Total:	12				-	12
Undesignated electoral votes: 514

Next installment: Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, Montana, Massachusetts

Historical election data and graphics are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Suggestion here: Make the Republicans Red and the Democrats Blue."

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Nah, keep the GOP blue and the RATs red. That's the way it is (for all elections) on Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. It's the best election site on the web: http://uselectionatlas.org/

[Chris Talk]

I would feel that Bush has a better chance in N Mex than this poster, though elsewhere I would agree with him.

If Bush loses New Mexico, which could happen, it will only because he is going down to defeat nationally.

I do not think Bill Richardson will be the Veep nominee.
If it is Kerry for Pres, then I expect Edwards for Veep unless the latter would turn it down. If it is Edwards for Pres, then I would expect the Veep to be offered to Dean, unless Hillary wants and demands it. In which case, Edwards should take out a massive insurance policy on his life.

[BoomerBob]

Ping Me!

[Neets]

Consider yerself pinged.

[Neets]

Pinged.

[Texas2step]

Put me on the ping list, please!

Me, too, please.

[Museum Twenty]

Please ping me as well. Thanks!

[guardian_of_liberty]

Please put me on the list. Thanks

[Sloth]

10/28/03 Research 2000 Link 600 LV 4% Bush 46% Dean 34%

I agree Vermont will go Dem, but does that polling data really support a 'Safe' designation?

[Sloth]

Put me on the ping list too, BTW. Thanks!

[Dales]

If the polling data continues to show a tight race or Bush in the lead, then I will change my designation. I tend to move conservatively.

[mhking]

I'll create a ping list and ping folks to your installments if you wish.

PING me!

[Neets]

So far, this is who I have on the ping list for the ECB threads...

nevergiveup; scan58; auh2oRepublican; boomerbob; galatians513; onyx; kjacob; reformedliberal; beaureguard; ciapilot; headsonpikes; tall_texan; krodg; chewedgum; dan from Michigan; hurricane andrew; nys_eric; 11th earl of mar; tomb; miss marple; Anitius Severinus Boethius; texas2step; GodBlessPeggyNoonan; guardian_of_Liberty; Augustus McCrae; Sloth; winOne4TheGipper; not-alone; scarface367; fun Bob; semper911; iron Eagle; hostileterritory; karlinohio; kesg; alisasny; rwr8189;

If you want on or off this ping list, please freepmail me.

[SamAdams76]

I would like to be added to this ping list as well.

[Neets]

So you shall!!!

[kesg]

Thanks!

[Neets]

Prego!!!

[Neets]

Pingeroonie to Installment One for my ATRW FRiends.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Ragu!!!

[Neets]

LOL!!!