Disenchanted Bush Voters Consider Crossing Over (Independent joins GOP in just two weeks time!)

BEACHWOOD, Ohio - In the 2000 presidential election, Bill Flanagan a semiretired newspaper worker, happily voted for George W. Bush. But now, shaking his head, he vows, "Never again."

"The combination of lies and boys coming home in body bags is just too awful," Mr. Flanagan said, drinking coffee and reading newspapers at the local mall. "I could vote for Kerry. I could vote for any Democrat unless he's a real dummy."

Mr. Flanagan is hardly alone, even though polls show that the overwhelming majority of Republicans who supported Mr. Bush in 2000 will do so again in November. In dozens of random interviews around the country, independents and Republicans who said they voted for Mr. Bush in 2000 say they intend to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate this year. Some polls are beginning to bolster the idea of those kind of stirrings among Republicans and independents.

That could change, of course, once the Bush campaign begins pumping millions of dollars into advertising and making the case for his re-election.

But even as Democratic and Republican strategists and pollsters warned that a shift could be transitory, they also said it could prove to be extraordinarily consequential in a year when each side is focused on turning out its most loyal voters.

"The strong Republicans are with him," a senior aide to Senator John Kerry said of Mr. Bush. "But there are independent-minded Republicans among whom he is having serious problems."

"With the nation so polarized," he added, "the defections of a few can make a big difference."

In the interviews, many of those potential "crossover" voters said they supported the invasion of Iraq but had come to see the continuing involvement there as too costly and without clear objectives.

Many also said they believed that the Bush administration had not been honest about its reasons for invading Iraq and were concerned about the failure to find unconventional weapons. Some of these people described themselves as fiscal conservatives who were alarmed by deficit spending, combined with job losses at home. Many are shocked to find themselves switching sides.

While sharing a sandwich at the stylish Beachwood Mall in this Cleveland suburb, one older couple ? a judge and a teacher ? reluctantly divulged their secret: though they are stalwarts in the local Republican Party, they are planning to vote Democratic this year.

"I feel like a complete traitor, and if you'd asked me four months ago, the answer would have been different," said the judge, after assurances of anonymity. "But we are really disgusted. It's the lies, the war, the economy. We have very good friends who are staunch Republicans, who don't even want to hear the name George Bush anymore."

In 2000, Mr. Bush won here in Ohio with 50 percent of the popular vote, as against 46.5 percent for Al Gore.

George Meagher, a Republican who founded and now runs the American Military Museum in Charleston, S.C., said he threw his "heart and soul" into the Bush campaign four years ago. He organized veterans to attend campaign events, including the campaign's kickoff speech at the Citadel. He even has photographs of himself and his wife with Mr. Bush.

"Given the outcome and how dissatisfied I am with the administration, it's hard to think about now," he said. "People like me, we're all choking a bit at not supporting the president. But when I think about 500 people killed and what we've done to Iraq. And what we've done to our country. I mean, we're already $2 trillion in debt again."

A nationwide CBS News poll released Feb. 16 found that 11 percent of people who voted for Mr. Bush in 2000 now say they will vote for the Democratic candidate this fall. But there was some falloff among those who voted against him as well. Five percent of people who said they voted for Mr. Gore in 2000 say this time they will back Mr. Bush.

On individual issues, the poll found some discontent among Republicans but substantial discontent among independents. For instance, on handling the nation's economy, 19 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of independents said they disapproved of the job Mr. Bush was doing.

"As the president's job rating has fallen, his Democratic supporters have pulled away first, then the independents and now we're starting to see a bit of erosion among the Republicans, who used to support him pretty unanimously," said Evans Witt, the chief executive of Princeton Survey Research Associates. "If 10 to 15 percent of Republicans do not support him anymore, that is not trivial for Bush's re-election."

But Matthew Dowd, the Bush campaign's chief strategist, suggested that no one in the White House was worried about Mr. Bush's losing much of his base. He said polls continued to show that the president was enjoying the support of 90 percent of Republicans.

Many of those interviewed said that they had experienced a growing disenchantment with the conflict in Iraq over many months, but that only recently had they decided to change their votes.

A number said they had been deeply disturbed by recent statements of David A. Kay, the former United Nations weapons inspector, who said he was skeptical about administration claims that Iraq possessed unconventional weapons.

"The lack of evidence on Iraq has really hurt him, and the economy here is bad ? there's a lot of unemployment in the mills," said Phyllis Pierce, who is in the steel business in Cleveland and recently decided not to vote for Mr. Bush again.

John Scarnado, a sales manager from Austin, Tex., who voted for Mr. Bush in 2000, said he would vote for Mr. Kerry if the senator won the Democratic nomination.

"I'm upset about Iraq and the vice president and his affiliation with Halliburton," said Mr. Scarnado, a registered Republican who said that he had not always voted along party lines. "I think the Bush administration is coming out to look like old boy politics, and I don't have a good feel about that."

Many of those wavering in their loyalty to Mr. Bush were middle-class voters who said that his tax relief programs had disproportionately helped the wealthy.

"I voted for him, but it seems like he's just taking care of his rich buddies now," said Mike Cross, a farmer from Londonderry, N.H., adding, "I'm not a great fan of John Kerry, but I've had enough of President Bush."

Here is the original article, in full:
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http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/03/politics/campaign/03VETS.html?ei=5070&en=d1f41dbeaab18901&ex=1077512400&pagewanted=print&position=

February 3, 2004
Veterans Move to Kerry, Even From Afar
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL

OLUMBIA, S.C., Feb. 2 ? David Mitchell, a disabled Persian Gulf war veteran from Boston, came here to volunteer for John Kerry's South Carolina primary campaign, as he had done in Iowa and New Hampshire. He is a registered independent who voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and had never been politically active.

Norman White, 81, who fought in World War II and lives in Virginia, arrived here on Friday, a new recruit in the Kerry campaign. Wayne Smith, a combat medic in Vietnam, felt so strongly about the Kerry bid that he took a week of vacation from his job in Rhode Island to take part in a phone bank directed towards veterans here.

"I've never done anything like this before but I'm so proud of his message, his personal courage and integrity," said Mr. Smith, finishing one of hundreds of calls for the day. "And believe me, as an African-American I hate being here and seeing these Confederate flags flying. But I think veterans can make a difference this year and it's so important."

Veterans are emerging as a new and potentially powerful constituency in this year's presidential race, having helped propel Mr. Kerry to victories in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.

The Kerry campaign is hoping that the huge military population in South Carolina will produce a victory here as well for their candidate, a decorated soldier who has championed veterans' rights in the Senate.

In dozens of interviews over the past two days, many veterans here said they had recently become Kerry supporters. Strikingly, most of those interviewed said they had never before been involved in politics and some had not voted in years. Others were registered independents or even Republicans who had supported Mr. Bush in the last election.

"In Iowa, this band of brothers was out in the snow chasing down one vote at a time," said former Senator Max Cleland of Georgia, a disabled veteran, who was playing host to a raucous Super Bowl party on Sunday for nearly 100 local and visiting "Veterans for Kerry" at a Veterans of Foreign Wars post here.

"The real story of New Hampshire and Iowa was this silent draw of new voters," Mr. Cleland said. "And it crosses party lines ? both Democrats and Republicans who are teed off with the current administration."

In New Hampshire, 36 percent of veterans and 39 percent of voters from military households voted for Mr. Kerry, according to exit polls from last week's primary ? about the same level of support for Kerry shown by most every other group.

Howard Dean placed second with both groups, with just over 20 percent of their vote. Gen. Wesley K. Clark, another veteran, was third with about 15 percent.

At the Veterans for Kerry phone bank in a nondescript strip mall, volunteers said that 30 percent to 50 percent of the more than 10,000 veterans they had contacted said they would vote for Mr. Kerry.

The military is omnipresent in this state. Twenty percent of registered voters in 2000 were veterans, and an estimated 4,000 Vietnam War veterans move to the state each year.

In addition, South Carolina is home to numerous military bases. The Navy is the largest employer in Charleston, and there is an "Armed Services Reception Desk" by the car rental desks at the Columbia airport.

One wild card in the elections this year is the size of the contingent of "independent" veterans and military personnel who have switched their allegiance since the 2000 campaign.

"I don't think I could vote for George Bush again when I think of the 500 people killed in Iraq and what's happened to the economy in this country," said George Meagher, an independent, who runs the American Military Museum in Charleston and said he now favors Mr. Kerry.

This is a small state peppered with military families who are feeling the toll of the extended U.S. involvement in the Persian Gulf. "If you're losing family, it's hard to support an administration when the reasons for the involvement are coming into question," said Crystal Broadnax, a recently retired reservist whose husband served in Iraq.

Ms. Broadnax said she would not vote for President Bush a second time, though among Democrats she is favoring John Edwards because she is more familiar with the senator from North Carolina.

Veterans have various reasons for supporting Mr. Kerry, including his support for military health and retirement benefits as well as his evolving opposition to the war in Iraq over the past year, which many said mirrored their own ambivalence.

"I'm leaning towards John Kerry since he's been there and knows what people like me have been through," said Dwight Drakeford, 54.

For many the bond is deeply emotional. Michael Steven Myers, a decorated Vietnam veteran from Virginia Beach, called Mr. Kerry's office two weeks ago to volunteer. "In the start I backed the president on Iraq because that is what a soldier does," Mr. Myers said. "But after awhile the reasons they were giving fell away, and now it started to bring back my feelings about Vietnam. Again, a lot of us are ending up asking where is the endpoint and why U.S. soldiers are dying there."

Mr. Myers, a writer who said he did not vote in the last election, said: "He's a proven leader and a brother and I would follow him anywhere."

It is still unclear, of course, if the Kerry drive here among veterans will yield votes. Senator John McCain tried, and failed, to mobilize enough veterans in the 2000 Republican primary. But local veterans leaders point out that his opponent, Mr. Bush, had a strong local following. He comfortably beat Al Gore here.

"I think John Kerry will do much better than John McCain did in 2000," said Augustus Singleton, commander of V.F.W. Post 4262 here. "The appeal is much bigger. The whole atmosphere is different. And I think the veterans vote is going to have a big impact in South Carolina this year."

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