Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Eight

Various

[Dales]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this eighth installment, the random state generator presented me with Indiana, Arizona, South Dakota, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

---

Indiana

Electoral Votes: 11

2000 Result

Bush 57%

Gore 41%

Background: This is a Republican state. While LBJ did beat Goldwater, you have to go back to Franklin Roosevelt's second election to find another instance of the Democrats carrying the state. With significant help from Perot, Clinton twice got within 6-7%, but beyond that the closest it has been is when Carter was within 8% of Ford.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
2/15/04	SurveyUSA	Link	525 RV	4.2%	Bush	51%		45%

Punditry: The SurveyUSA poll is surprisingly close to me. Given the Republican leaning of this state, I expect it to open up to be more along what happened in 2000, although Evan Bayh being Kerry's VP choice would complicate matters. Leans for Bush.

---

Arizona

Electoral Votes: 10

2000 Result

Bush 51%

Gore 45%

Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
7/18/03	Behavior Research Center	Link	701 Adults	4.3%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Opponent	41%
1/11/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	641 Adults	3.9%	Bush	50%	Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean)	38%
2/19/04	SurveyUSA	Link	RV	4.3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	44%

Punditry: The polls match the results from last time. Leans for Bush.

---

South Dakota

Electoral Votes: 3

2000 Result

Bush 60%

Gore 38%

Background: Another state that only went for the Democrats with Johnson since FDR's second campaign. It has occasionally been close.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
2/5/03	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	3.5%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	39%

Punditry: I do not anticipate any surprises in South Dakota. Strong Advantage for Bush.

---

New Jersey

Electoral Votes: 15

2000 Result

Gore 56%

Bush 40%

Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
9/8/03	Rutgers	Link	802 Adults	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	35%
9/15/03	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	29%
1/11/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	32%

Punditry: If I had to guess, the next New Jersey poll will show Kerry ahead of Bush. However, it has been very interesting how well Bush's numbers have fared here in the Garden State. While my gut tells me that this is going to change, the numbers indicate that it should as of now be in the Leans for Bush category. I want to see one more poll before I can do that though, given the Clinton/Gore margins. Slight Advantage for Bush.

---

Connecticut

Electoral Votes: 7

2000 Result

Gore 56%

Bush 38%

Background: 3-5-3 in the last 11, with Clinton's first being probably due to the Perot factor.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
3/11/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3%	Bush	37%	Unnamed Democrat	51%
7/31/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3%	Bush	37%	Unnamed Democrat	51%

Punditry: Compare how in the tri-state area, Bush's support has collapsed in Connecticut but remained high in New Jersey. I am not sure what to make of this, but it is very interesting. Strong Advantage for Democrats.

---

Summary Table
	Bush					Democrat
	Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
	ND (3)	CO (9)	GA (15)	NV (5)	OR (7)	NM (5)	CA (55)	NY (31)	VT (3)
	AL (9)	SC (8)	NC (15)	FL (27)	WV (5)	ME (4)	-	DE (3)	MA (12)
	MT (3)	KY (8)	MO (11)	NJ (15)	-	MI (17)	-	MD (10)	DC (3)
	WY (3)	KS (6)	VA (13)	-	-	PA (21)	-	WA (11)	RI (4)
	UT (5)	MS (6)	OH (20)	-	-	-	-	CT (7)	HI (4)
	ID (4)	SD (3)	IN (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	AK (3)	-	AZ (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	NE (5)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Designation Total:	35	40	95	47	12	47	55	59	26
Candidate Total:	175			106			143
Undesignated electoral votes: 114

---

Next installment: Iowa, Arkansas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Illinois.

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five
Installment Six
Installment Seven

[Dales]

If someone wanted to check to make sure that the five states I have listed as upcoming are not duplicates, and tell me the five remaining states after that, I would appreciate it. I think Wisconsin is one that hasn't been touched yet.

[Dales]

Eight.

[Azzurri]

You've done a great job with this analysis, but I have to disagree with a Bush advantage in NJ. NJ was, as you stated, a Republican state as recently as the 1980s. However, it has veered sharply left and I find it hard to believe Bush will spend much, if any, time in the state.

[Vigilanteman]

If New Jersey is even slightly leaning Republican, Pennsylvania should be more so. NJ has two of the nation's most liberal senators, Pennsylvania has one of the most conservative and the other is in the toughest primary fight of his career against a more solid conservative.

No way can I see NJ going Republican; but PA is a definite possibility.

[Neets]

Been busy today, eh??

[LibFreeUSA]

The election will ultimately come down to whoever can win 2 out of these 3 states:

PA / OH / FLA

[Chris Talk]

New JERSEY for Bush! How is that possible? It would appear to me that CT, DE, PA, MI and maybe even MD are more likely to go for Bush than NJ?

I hope you are right, but if you are, then it looks like the states above and others are in play as well. And it would be all-over, with Bush a shoo-in.

[GiveEmDubya]

::Throws red flag on the field::

Jeez I would be happy if Bush won NJ, but I don't think it will happen as of now.

[Chris Talk]

If that is true, we are safe, for FL and OH will definitely vote for Bush.

Personally I think PA is a toss-up at this time, or has a RAT lead so small that it will be in-play for sure in the campaign...

[onyx]

FOFLOL! Yes, he HAS been busy.

[Wheee The People]

BRAVO, Fantastic effort...2 other items would/might help. (Not suggesting YOU do it. I may try and gather it and send it to you. Or perhaps another Freeper may help, I'm going into hell week at work)

That is, what is the party make-up % of state legislature and what party is the Governor? Both of these can be pointers to which way the state leans in the Presidential race.

[Radix]

Hey,

I really like this stuff. I would love to be pinged to any more additions. I am not really interested in getting pinged to a whole lot of threads, but this particular stuff is of great interest to me.

I get a lot of FR pings now, and while cool, it is unrealistic that I can really look at them all. Time is simply too precious for me these days. Thanks.

[firewalk]

.

[Celtjew Libertarian]

You've been doing quite well, but I think you're off on NJ. If anything, put in toss-up.

As for Connecticut, the big lead that the "unnamed Democrat" has may be due to the leading Democrats having been fellow New Englanders, Howard Dean and John Kerry. Also, I think there has been a major scandal involving their GOP governor, but I'm not sure when that broke and how it would have affected the polls you have there.

[Neets]

Pinging the new members since Dales caught me napping on the job.

[LibFreeUSA]

New JERSEY for Bush! How is that possible? It would appear to me that CT, DE, PA, MI and maybe even MD are more likely to go for Bush than NJ?

Yep, NJ is a 'democrap' state. I know, I live in it. Rino Whitman took a state who the Republicans controlled, GOV / House / Senate, and have completely turned it over to the Dems. Unfortunately, no way NJ is going to Bush. However, I'll be out there campaigning for Bush like I did in 2000

[Texas_Dawg]

Nice work. I disagree with the NJ analysis as well though. I'd have to put it a lean Dem.

The 5 states you haven't touched upon are: TX, TN, NH, WI, OK.

[Don Corleone]

For a survey commissioned by our local TV station (Tucson) they have been strangely silent on the outcome. Bias? Not a chance(/sarcasm)

[nbenyo]

As recently as 1988 (Bush vs. Dukakis) New Jersey was more Republican than the nation as a whole.
However after 1994 the GOP leadershiop of Gingrich, DeLay, Armey did not play well here. Also the growth in Hispanic population and migration from NYC has magnified the trend.

[Dog Gone]

I'm glad you're back for the pre-election analysis, Dales.

Much appreciated.

[Dales]

Thank you very much for going through and telling me the states that I had yet to get to.

I don't quite understand why people are disagreeing with the NJ analysis. What I said was that the poll numbers are very surprising to me, and I will be very surprised if the next time I get a poll I don't end up moving NJ over to the Kerry camp.

I guess people either don't remember how I did this last time, or weren't around for it. While my gut plays into things to a small degree (such as putting NJ in the "Slight" column instead of the "Lean" as would be indicated by just the polls), the overwhelming factor in the placement of any state in my analysis is where the state is according to its polls.

[AM2000]

I live in NJ and most NJ'ians, even the ones who claim to be or lean Republican, don't like GW much. I think it's going to come down to whether or not Rove can make them dislike Kerry more, that's the only way the Republican base (as it exists in NJ) will even come out to vote.

[raloxk]

I doubt Bush wins NJ. However if you look it isnt that Bush is doing so well in NJ, it is that the DEM is doing so badly. Thus I think it is caused by McGreevey's unpopularity. thus as the election approaches, the DEM will improve in their poll standings, I think

[Dales]

There are things yet to come.

After I go through each of the 50 states, then I am going to do a more detailed look at each of the states that will make up the battleground according to my perceptions. I was already planning on providing additional information in them.

And then after that is done, all there will be for quite a number of months will be updates as new polls come out. Then around summertime, I plug things into my "toy" which tries to make a guess as to how things will turn out based on the way things stand and the way things have been going.

And then the updates will continue right up until the end.

[Neets]

Ping!!

;-)

[NittanyLion]

To those questioning NJ, I would argue that the "Slight" columns are so uncertain at this point it's really not worth the effort. What is of more interest is determining the "base" of each candidate and then figuring out which of the slight and tossup states need to fall to Bush in order to win.

The next step should be an analysis that would include a listing of issues critical to those slight/tossup states and discussion regarding whether the administration is likely to deliver on said issues.

[Dan from Michigan]

I can't see Jersey even being close, although I'll respect the gutsy call.

The main reason is the leftist shift there, as well as all the infighting in the state party there. After the Lostenberg/Torturecelli fiasco, there's slim to none chance IMO. In fact, I think Connecticutt, and even New Yawk will be closer than Jersey(60% dem wouldn't suprise me here.) If Jersey is in play, than this will be Dukakis II.

Agree on the rest, but Arizona scares me quite a bit with all the immigration and senior migration out there.

[Dan from Michigan]

ARIZONA

County - Gore Votes - Bush Votes - Nader - LP/RP/CP - Total - Gore% Bush% Nader % Right % Apache (St Johns) 13025 5947 245 201 19418 67% 31% 1% 1%
Santa Cruz (Nogales) 5233 3344 217 85 8879 59% 38% 2% 1% Pima (Tuscon) 147688 124579 12355 2777 287399 51% 43% 4% 1%
Coconino (Flagstaff) 20280 17562 2478 496 40816 50% 43% 6% 1%
Pinal (Florence) 19650 20122 904 578 41254 48% 49% 2% 1%
Navajo (Holbrook) 11794 12386 517 422 25119 47% 49% 2% 2%
Gila (Globe) 7700 9158 497 356 17711 43% 52% 3% 2%
Maricopa (Phoenix, Mesa, Scottsdale) 386683 479967 22465 10141 899256 43% 53% 2% 1%
Yuma (Yuma) 12055 15708 495 373 28631 42% 55% 2% 1%
Greenlee (Clifton) 1216 1619 68 57 2960 41% 55% 2% 2%
Cochise (Tombstone) 13360 18180 1113 514 33167 40% 55% 3% 2%
Mohave (Kingman) 17470 24386 1323 913 44092 40% 55% 3% 2%
La Paz (Parker) 1769 2543 91 77 4480 39% 57% 2% 2%
Yavupai (Prescott) 24063 40144 2733 1010 67950 35% 59% 4% 1%
Graham (Thatcher) 3385 6007 144 151 9687 35% 62% 1% 2%

[Alberta's Child]

I agree with Azzurri. The national GOP ought to write this state off completely, especially when you consider the kind of dopey, half-@sses Republicans who are successful in winning state-wide races here.

[Texas_Dawg]

I don't quite understand why people are disagreeing with the NJ analysis.

I know... I just think it has to do with the fact that NJ is pretty liberal and the last poll was over a month ago and was against an unnamed Democrat. Against Kerry now, it is probably a Dem lean, imho.

[FRgal4u]

NJ is not an easy state for Republicans. This is a very pro-gun control and abortion rights state. The independents - the key to win the elections in NJ - are fiscally conservative, afraid of guns and pro abortion rights. Hard to see Bush get over 45-47% in NJ (if Bush can win 46-47% in NJ, he will definitely win in PA).

Some issues that may tip the NJ balance a bit towards Bush this fall -

1) Drug reimportation - all the hoopla on cheap Canadian drugs - NJ is the state with the largest employment in Pharma countrywide - all the R&D centers and corporate HQs of Merck, J&J, Pfizer, Hoffman, Bristol-Myers, Novartis blah blah - there are thousands of jobs could be threatened here if the dims push too hard on the drug issue,

2) Smoot-Hawley type of protectionism policy - NJ is a state with major seaports, most moderates see trade is a plus not a negative, then there is the wallstreet crowd, a smoot-hawley type of protectionist will crater the stock market, so goes the budding financial centers along the shore of the Hudson, and

3) NJ govn. is very unpopular, think the last poll he has is the mid 30s in approval, this could dim the hopes of the dems a bit.

I can see Bush get into the mid/upper 40s if the stars are aligned well (sorta like the votes Forrester, Franks got in the 02,04 senate races). If Bush can pull in the mid upper 40s in NJ, he could make the dems real nervous and need to spend some $$ in NJ. Advertising in NJ is very expensive.

[AntiGuv]

You have not yet discussed those five states - Iowa, Arkansas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Illinois.

The last five states would then be: New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin.

Keep 'em coming!

[Monty22]

Texas should be a no brainer, but with the offshoring hitting here so bad, we'll see. Bush better throw out something to combat it, or else he's in for a fight.

[Dales]

Like I said, I will be surprised if Bush is holding his lead by the next NJ poll.

But until I see it, I go with what I have.

[republicanwizard]

Indeed in the 1980's, Pennsylvania leaned Dem and Jersey leaned Rep. Reagan and Bush Sr. barely won Pennsylvania all three times. In those days people like Mondale appealed to Southwestern PA Democrats.

However now the two states have flipped. New Jersey has grown more like New York.

[Quicksilver]

Glad you're back doing these state-by-state poll analyses. I'd appreciate being on your ping list. Thanks.

[Neets]

you are on the list!

[chimera]

AS an ex-patriot Jerseyan, I'll have to throw my vote with those who say it's a likely Kerry state, sorry to say. When I was growing up there, a lot of the electorate was like my parents, white, middle class, first and second-generation immigrants who believed in working hard in the hopes of building a better life for your kids. Relatively few fresh immigrants (although my schools always had a sizable Puerto Rican population, and fairly small influx from NY.

Demographics have changed. Quite a few New Yorkers have moved in, plus a huge influx of immigrants. The downstate Republican votes cannot offset the Rat advantage in North Jersey and Trenton/Camden. Scratch NJ as a Bush pickup.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Unlike some of the other FReepers on this thread, I think NJ may be close. It comes down to 9/11 and remembering. Those in New Jersey can't forget. Every time they look at NYC, there are two large buildings missing.

[MoodyBlu]

Unlike some of the other FReepers on this thread, I think NJ may be close. It comes down to 9/11 and remembering. Those in New Jersey can't forget. Every time they look at NYC, there are two large buildings missing.

I know what you mean. I live in suburban Philadelphia and travel the Jersey turnpike past NYC on the way to New England often. Pre 9/11, the first thing you saw south of the Newark airport were those 2 towers sticking up and nothing else. It is so strange for them to be gone now.

Never forget!

MoodyBlu

[Clintonfatigued]

I am a resident of Indiana, and I can explain the trends. 'Rat strength in Indiana is slowly growing, though it's still a Republican state. First of all, the Gary-East Chicago-Michigan City areas are 'Rat strongholds. Second, the southern part of the state is socially conservative, but in economic straights. Third, and most important, is Indianapolis. Lots of recent college graduates are moving into Indianapolis for white-collar jobs, many from southern Indiana. Most of them are single, concentrating on their careers, and not family-oriented. At the same time, many middle-class, two-parent families with children are leaving the city. This is especially prouounced among families with stay-at-home mothers and families whose fathers own their own businesses. Partly as a result, social conservatives are losing ground there, and 'Rats who campaign as moderates who balance budgets, fight crime, and are friendly to economic growth are winning more elections. If Evan Bayh is Kerry's running mate, than I believe Indiana is very much in play.

[CaptIsaacDavis]

The Nader intervention won't affect things much -- most of his support comes in states with wide Dem margins to begin with. The "battleground states" include West Virginia, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio and Florida (all states where MoveOn.org is already reported to be spending money targeting Bush). Ohio, Florida, Michigan, and New Jersey are the most important in terms of size and # of electoral votes. However, NJ is "lost" -- it is the demographics (the state is literally being overrun by immigrants -- by the hundreds of thousands within each election cycle). Michigan and Ohio will be tough due to the economic conditions, while Florida will be THE TEST -- was the socialist drug program and pandering to illegals worth it?

[CaptIsaacDavis]

I take that comment on Nader back! Too quick on the submit button. However, Nader is correct that many Dems will no longer vote for him in Florida, because they know what the consequences will be. Nader is clearly targeting REPUBLICANS, and could draw away some anti-Bush Republicans (he did get circa 25% of his votes in 2000 from registered Republicans).

[Teacher317]

I'd re-categorize NJ. It's going to the Dems this year.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Dales, I've got to tell you, while I'm happy that someone out there is pointing out that Bush could carry NJ in 2004, there is no way you can say it leans to Bush, even slightly, right now. If NJ leans to Bush, then so does DE and PA would be strongly in Bush's column (plus, NY would only lean Democrat and CT would slightly lean Dem). The forces at play that you (correctly) predict will help Bush do much better in NJ in 2004 than he did in 2000 will also help him in other suburban areas in the Northeast (and probably in West Coast and Midwest suburban areas as well). If Bush carries NJ, he will almost certainly get over 400 Electoral Votes (over 450 if he also wins California).

[Dales]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1083597/posts?page=76#76