Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Eleven (The Battlegrounds)

various

[JasonC]

Michigan and Pennsylvannia in the Dem column makes it tough to reach the threshold. Possible, obviously. But I'd be a lot more comfortable if either or both of those looked like they might be won.

[Coop]

Since 9/11 we have had two measures (elections) in NJ. The Gov's race was unfortunately never really competitive, but in the 2002 Senate race Forrester would have indeed beaten the incumbent Torricelli. I can't remember how many times I argued the numbers, and folks wouldn't believe me because of NJ's recent Presidential history. Granted, it was Torricelli's weakness and not Forrester's strength, but do note the Dems had to bring in a retired incumbent (illegally) to keep the seat. So maybe 2002 and its aftermath demonstrated a rightward shift. I dunno. But if so, NJ's got a good ways to shift. :-)

[Owen]

Tactics trump policy every single time. Who wins is who has people go to the polls and vote for him.

G O T V. If Nevada is vulnerable, then rent all the rental vans in Vegas and Reno and use them only to carry our people. Hit the phone banks. Make sure elderly veterans who are members of the VFW and American Legion have a way to the polls.

G O T V trumps policy every single time.

[CougarGA7]

Could you add me to the ping list. This is fantastic work.

Thanks.

[Neets]

Got ya on the list!

[JohnnyZ]

If Nevada is vulnerable, then rent all the rental vans in Vegas and Reno

It might be too early for that; with enough lead time, supply can catch up to demand. They HAVE reserved enough vans for Republican use already, though. As for GOTV, BushCheney ain't raising big bucks for nuthin'.

[Ships of Wood, Men of Iron]

[Coop writes] I agree, the two reports are curious. But I find the lack of objective comparisons of the two reports much more telling. I tend to think ground truth is closer to the lower number (household) than the higher (payrolls). Why? ..[snip]...

As you say, the loud silence in the mainstream media regarding the household survey is important, and in the direction of the same old bias. Aside from that, the discrepancy is both interesting and important. One does indeed read various reasons to prefer the household survey. I wish and hope that it reflects the economy more accurately than the payroll report. However, I am not all that hopeful as Greenspan said something to the effect of all in all he thought the payroll report more reliable. While Greenspan is obviously not the only professional whose opinion is worth listening to, he does sit at the top of a web and has shown reasonable judgment before.

[Owen]

>
It might be too early for that; with enough lead time, supply can catch up to demand. They HAVE reserved enough vans for Republican use already, though. As for GOTV, BushCheney ain't raising big bucks for nuthin'.
>

Yes, it might be too early and supply could catch up. So we wait and then rent them all a few days ahead of when they are reserved by the Dems and then just turn them back in late.

All that money MUST NOT be spent on campaign manager salary. That's not why we're sending in money. We want it spent on GOTV. We want votes, not staff.

[benjaminthomas]

Can you please add me to the ping list? Many thanks!

[Neets]

Sure thing.

[.cnI redruM]

Excellent work. I think you modeled a plausible scenario. I think Bush has slightly more pad than you give him, but not much. I see Bush getting about 325 and giving the GOP about +5 in the House and +2 or +3 in The Senate.

[onyx]

Thank you, and you too Dales. :)

[GiveEmDubya]

I agree with every one of your predictions, especially NH and ME-02.

[XRdsRev]

New Jersey may surprise some people. I am 30 miles from NYC. People here still remember 9/11 vividly and there are many who lost someone or who know somebody who did. I am heartened that at least a few dems I know say they will vote for Bush because he is actively fighting terror and they want to stay the course.

[WOSG]

QUICK what was the unemployment rate in 1984? In 1996?

Today it is 5.6% and falling.

IMHO the media is playing up 'no jobs' but the jobs situation is not really that dire. the economy is stonger than the media will acknolwedge. Hopefully the strength of the economy will become so obvious even the media wont be able to shrug it off.

[WOSG]

Another New Jersey angle ... prescription DRUG benefit.

The DRUG companies have major HQs in NJ. Giving the drug benefit is like giving a boon to the main state economy.

I bet he hammers on that issue in New Jersey. just a thought.

[WOSG]

It is almost certainly the case that the household survey is the more accurate one during economic turnarounds like we have now.

[Coop]

Interesting angle. Thanks

[AntiGuv]

FWIW, I have both Wisconsin and Minnesota in the slight GOP column for now, but that's mostly just gut feeling. We shall see!