Quantifying the Roe Effect

WSJ -- Best of the Web Today ^ | March 5, 2004 | By JAMES TARANTO

[spodefly]

Regular readers of this column know that for some time we have been pushing a pet theory about the political effect of abortion. We refer not to the issue of abortion but to the practice, and our theory is that abortion is making America more conservative than it otherwise would be.

[Integrityrocks]

Wow! That is facinating, scary, interesting, sad and bottom line, how do you say that is "good news", even though the ultimate end result politically would be. Its pretty hard to stomach the idea that our country will eventually become conservative again on the blood of babies in the womb. Leave it to the liberals to just weed themselves out. I can't even imagine what God must be considering.

[momfirst]

How interesting! (but for some reason I don't find it too surprising)

[spodefly]

I put it in the 'reap what you sow' category. Bad choices have bad results.

[Monti Cello]

Good stuff, but correlation doesn't imply causation.

The whole red state/blue state idea is that there is a cultural divide which extends to many areas of politics and society.

To find that there are more abortions in Gore states does not mean that the mechanism is natural selection against Democrats. Particularly since we are talking about a time span of only a few generations at most.

[passionfruit]

A couple of years ago on a cable show (I can't remember which) they were discussing the lower crime rates. The liberal woman on the show said that abortion was to be credited for the lower crime rates. Her reasoning was that the aborted babies were most likely to be the ones that would grow up to commit crimes. She said that the kind of woman (or girl) would be the kind of mother that raises criminals (she went on to discuss socio economic factors).

Just like the days whenPlanned parenthood was in it's infancy and Margaret Sanger was at the helm, they identified "undesireable" populations, and convinced them to kill their own young.

Simply amazing!

[kittymyrib]

Which is exactly why the Democrats want as many illegal aliens in this country as they can bring in. That group will "owe" the Democrats their votes, so don't think they will "weed themselves out" for decades. That's why Pres. Bush is foolish to encourage more illegals by offering amnesty.

[Maximilian]

A little bit off my usual topics, but a fascinating look at the intersection of morality (abortion), demographics and politics.

While this analysis is very interesting, I think he could have made his case even simpler and clearer: just point out the fact that Kerry has a tougher job than Gore did because Bush will get 8 more electoral votes simply by carrying the same states. Gore could have won by carrying any 1 additional state, even New Hampshire. That won't be true in 2004.

This really demonstrates the bottom-line effects of the abortion-on-demand policy. Liberal states are quickly losing population versus conservative states.

[netmilsmom]

I find it to be sad that any life is lost....

However, between this and the Gen Xers being totally disgusted with their parents "do it if it feels good" attitude, I think the country WILL end up conservative.

The Boomers became the Yuppies. All the little "Caillou" kids now know, all the goodies in the world are no sub for mommy and daddy's attention. Many people I talk to would rather live in a one bedroom apartment and eat Mac and Cheese then give kids possessions over love.

[onyx]

Kerry does have a more difficult chore ahead of him --- defeating a sitting president is not a walk in the park.

Aside from the partisans on each side, folks do not vote AGAINST a sitting president unless he's incompetent like Jimmy Carter.

[Paleo Conservative]

We base this on two assumptions. First, that liberal and Democratic women are more likely to have abortions. Second, that children's political views tend to reflect those of their parents--not exactly, of course, and not in every case, but on average. Thus abortion depletes the next generation of liberals and eventually makes the population more conservative. We call this the Roe effect, after Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court's 1973 decision that established a constitutional right to abortion.

I've made this arguement before on Free Republic. Glad to see someone saying it on the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal.

[Coleus]

`

[autopsy]

I don't really buy the premise of the article because just about everybody contracepts.

[Maximilian]

I don't really buy the premise of the article because just about everybody contracepts.

True. That's why the population of native-born Americans hasn't increased in a long time. In fact, I'd bet that the population of white, native-born Americans is no bigger now than it was 40 years ago. So populations are stagnant every place where you don't have an influx of immigrants.

But it's still true that abortion can add a double-whammy on top of contraception. The few children who "slip through the cracks" are quickly dispatched in some parts of the country.

[raloxk]

Abortion, Gay Marriage, Human Cloning, Euthenasia

Liberals embrace a culture of death

[samiam1972]

Similar to the idea of liberals worried about overpopulation having only one child. Eventually, the big conservative families will outnumber. Just a thought!

[The Raven]

ping

[Guelph4ever]

The argument sounds logical, but I agree there are too many other factors for it to be that simple. Liberals may be having more abortions, but they are also bringing in more people through (usually illegal) immigration. In the area of race, I don't think Caucasians can possibly maintain majority status considering that their birth rate is lower, the number of interracial marriages has been increasing steadily over the years, and 80% of all suicides are white men (the number of which has also been increasing).

There is also a 10:1 ratio of liberals to conservatives among college professors, which means the liberals are teaching (not indoctrinating surely?) the future generations to be liberals as well.

Conservatives won't win by simply waiting for the libs to die out.