Is the Election Already Over? (Is there a President John F'n Kerry in our future?)

The Hill ^ | March 10, 2003 | Dr. David Hill

[quidnunc]

We are being denied the drama and pageantry of a proper presidential campaign season. The scenario has gone like this: lights, action, camera; cue Bush on right, cue Kerry on left, cue Nader from center stage, cut and wrap. This is no “Lord of the Rings” trilogy. It’s hardly a movie of the week. If events don’t alter this scene, the DVD on the 2004 election may be released before Election Day.

All but one of the national polls released this month validate these observations. Voters have pretty much made up their minds and are ready to vote. Now. While exit polls taken after the 2000 election found that one in five voters made up their minds in the last week of the campaign, this time it might be one in a hundred.

The most recent USA Today/CNN/ Gallup Poll of likely voters, taken March 5-7, shows only 2 percent of voters being truly undecided after throwing out 2 percent that want none of the three “major” candidates.

But it’s not just “likely voters” who are so decided at this point. Even lowly “registered voters” seem to have made up their minds.

The most recent Washington Post-ABC poll of registered voters taken March 4-7 shows just 2 percent of the sample undecided after getting rid of voters who reject the major candidates or plan not to vote. An AP-Ipsos poll of registered voters taken March 1-3 also shows just 2 percent undecided.

Only one national poll taken this month — by Fox News and Opinion Dynamics — shows a higher undecided vote, and even that disappears when running-mate names are added to the mix.

This degree of certainty about presidential candidate preference is unprecedented.

-snip-

[quidnunc]

I've had a bad feeling about this upcoming election for some time.

[buccaneer81]

PUHLESSE... This looks so much like the '88 election it's pathetic. Bush wins big.

[raloxk]

I think it is going to be a disaster for the GOP. They will only barely hold on in the House due to Gerrymandering (1980 DEMs)

I see Bush losing by possibly as much as 8-9 points. DEMs pick up the Senate. GOP wins GA and SC offset by losses in IL, OK, CO, AK. That would give DEMs the Senate.

Right now I do not see GW Bush getting more than approximately 200 EVs.

His campaign is awful so far. Worse yet, he has done enough in Iraq to ensure Kerry comes in just as it is getting cleaned up. Thus Kerry wins the war.

there is a very very real possiblity that this election will shut out the GOP from the White House for a generation


This country will be unrecognizable. We will be more like Canada. Speech will become regulated by the govt. Gay Marriage in all 50 states. and the courts will be gone forever.

[anniegetyourgun]

Thus far we have Kerry defeating an underwhelming field of D candidates. Hardly a big deal....and months to go.

[raloxk]

what more, the stock market is begining to factor in a Bush loss. Irony is the more the market believes Bush will lose, the more likely he will actually lose.

[tbpiper]

Moby??? Is that you????

[Judith Anne]

Gosh, why would I even bother voting, since President Bush can't possibly win? I think I'll tell all my friends and family to just give up, it's hopeless.

/extreme sarcasm

[cripplecreek]

Lots of issues in play.

Most of the polls of likely Kerry voters show that they don't much care for the guy nor do they trust him with foreign policy issues. It also seems that the people who are likely to vote for him are only willing to do so because they don't like bush.

Ive also noticed that John Kerry seems to be running to the left and making increasingly outrageous comments. Personally i don't think claiming that other nations like him better is a good strategy.

I guess i see a lot of potential areas of vulnerability if the Bush team ever gets around to exploiting them.

[Miss Marple]

You know, you've only been here a month, and I think you probably are letting the news media panic you. That is what they are trying to do. You are not helping, by buying into this line.

It is MARCH. This is the earliest that a presidential campaign has ever started. If Bush starts in too early, Kerry might end up being dumped as the nominee. Then we would have to start in with another person, and would have expended a lot of money for nothing.

[Rennes Templar]

On the bright side, we're going to elect a Republican mayor in my town this year.

[sinkspur]

I think it is going to be a disaster for the GOP. They will only barely hold on in the House due to Gerrymandering (1980 DEMs)

Well, your opener shows you're not aware of the latest redistricting efforts in Georgia, Texas, and Pennsylvania. The GOP will hold the House, handily.

I'm getting nervous, because Kerry is defining Bush while Bush seems to be in reactive mode.

Perhaps there's some method to Rove's madness, but he may pass the point of no return.

Generals always fight the last war, and I'm afraid Rove is trying to reprise GH Bush's 1988 election. It's not the same environment, by a long shot.

[LuigiBasco]

What a bunch of Wusses y'all are.
The election is in November. It's only March guys. Get hold of yourselves!

[JennysCool]

Yeah. Right. And a couple of months ago the "unbeatable" Howard Dean (remember him?) was on the cover of every newsmagazine in America.

Didn't your mother teach you not to believe everything you read?

[John Lenin]

Unless Bush gets caught kicking a little dog on camera Kerry has No chance once Bush gets his record out there. But the with the demoRAT voter fraud factor and electronic voting machines ya never know what might happen.

[cyncooper]

"Even registered voters"?

Um, they usually go more dem than the likely.

Good grief.

[DefCon]

The 'middle' has been shrinking steadily over the last several election cycles.
With no one being undecided, then what are campaigns for, anyway?
The liberals will vote one way, no mattter who's name is on the ticket.
The conservatives will do the same thing.
The bad thing is that this allows for otherwise
unqualified and enelectable candidates to become leaders.
Polarization of the people does not bode well for the future.
It is not a good sign.
When the lines are drawn, and everyone has chosen sides,
and no one wants to hear the point-of-vies of the other side,
I liken it to a powderkeg just waiting for a spark.

[AndyTheBear]

PUHLESSE... This looks so much like the '88 election it's pathetic. Bush wins big.

Agreed. The polls try to sample in the "correct" number of Rat, Pubby, and "independents". Many partisan liberals lie and claim to be "independent" in such polls this far out. Closer to election time they start admitting their real party.

On the other hand, conservatives are honest, and say they are Pubbies more often--so they get sampled out.

Moreover, the polls are depending on voter registration to decide how many Pubbies vs Rats to sample--this is flawed, because the Pubbies have more recent converts since 9-11 that are being weighed against people who have become less involved.

Add to this that the Rat primary turn out was so low.

Not to mention that we have eight months for folks to discover what kind of record Kerry has...

Bush will cream this guy.

[ServesURight]

Just show him a picture of Eminem. He'll defecate in his pants and leave.

[Lion in Winter]

Florida re-elected Jeb Bush not all that long ago with a HUGE majority of the vote and he is VERY well thought of in the ENTIRE state... especially among our Millions of Hispanic voters. He speaks their lingo and his wife is from Latin America. THEY LOVE HER!!

You are such a negative newby... perhaps you had best just head on over to the DU with the rest of the creepy losers!

Bush will win and you will be saddened I am sure.

[cyncooper]

On Fox in their latest polls they showed that (going by memory, so numbers approx, but close) 86% of Republicans are strongly committed to Bush. Only 66% of Dems are strongly with Kerry.

Your constant naysaying and handwringing grows tiresome.