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Cal Stage 1 Power Emergency (Oops Cal ISO did it again!)
California ISO ^ | 3/29/04 | Drudge Report, & Cal ISO

Posted on 03/29/2004 2:56:29 PM PST by Robert357

The California ISO hereby issues a STAGE 1 ELECTRICAL EMERGENCY Notice, effective 03/29/2004 13:50 through 03/29/2004 19:59.

Reason(s):
Due to higher than expected loads and loss of resources South of Path 15.

Operating Reserves are currently, or forecast to be, less than amounts required by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. If Operating Reserves deplete further, the ISO will declare a Stage 2 Electrical Emergency and may begin curtailing Interruptible Loads*.

Monitor system conditions on the California ISO Website at www.caiso.com and check with local electric utilities for additional information. This message was sent by Market Operations at the California ISO.


TOPICS: Government; US: California
KEYWORDS: blackouts; californiaiso; calpowercrisis; government; loadshedding
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Arnold needs to clean house. On the otherhand at least they aren't hidding this type of thing as they did under Davis.
1 posted on 03/29/2004 2:56:30 PM PST by Robert357
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To: Robert357; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Dog Gone; snopercod
I saw this on Drudge and didn't see it on FR so I thought I would post it.

Here we go again. Today's daily report says "...From 0000-2400 the Path 15 is limited to 3,450 MW south to north and 1,275 MW north to south due to area resource limitations."

Oh, well, I guess they haven't gotten their house in order yet.

2 posted on 03/29/2004 3:00:09 PM PST by Robert357
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To: Robert357
It's going to be a fun summer.
3 posted on 03/29/2004 3:01:29 PM PST by Canticle_of_Deborah
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To: Robert357
It's not even that hot today. Must be the recovering economy increasing the demand for power. Oh, wait. That can't be. John Kerry keeps telling us how utterly horrific the economy is. I'm sure that this power emergency is George Bush's fault
4 posted on 03/29/2004 3:03:24 PM PST by .38sw
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah
It's going to be a fun summer.

I think that the degree of fun will depend upon where you live and whether your power stays on, but yes, things could get interesting.

I hope that Arnold, acts decisively and tells the Cal ISO to get their act together and then tells the various regulatory agencies to do something about upgrading path 15.

5 posted on 03/29/2004 3:08:32 PM PST by Robert357
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah
If I lived in Californicate & had absolutely no other option I would be investing in a 5kw generator set & a couple of 100 lbs propane cylinders while the demand is low. When summer arrives in that state its gonna be a long hot summer,also set the generator on a concrete slabin such a fashion that anybody wanting to steal it will have to destroy it to get it loose & have it insured under home owners policy.
6 posted on 03/29/2004 3:09:38 PM PST by Nebr FAL owner (.308 REACH OUT & THUMP SOMEONE .50BMG REACH OUT & CRUSH SOMEONE!)
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To: Robert357
California voters need to clean house. Until there is a legislature which is business-friendly and actually encourages power companies to expand, residents there should expect this to continue and get worse.

You know all that, of course, but the granola types hold different views.

7 posted on 03/29/2004 3:10:17 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Robert357
(sarcasm) Oh boy, here we go again.(sarcasm end)

I am glad I live in the state of Georgia.

8 posted on 03/29/2004 3:11:57 PM PST by Paul C. Jesup (The Motto: 'Live and let live' is a suicidal belief...)
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To: .38sw
I'm sure that this power emergency is George Bush's fault.

If it isn't George's fault, it must be those evil Texas Power Companies that have George in their pocket.....(/sarcasm)

Seriously, what is surprising to me is that there was a known problem with reduced path 15 capacity for all day today, but it sounds like folks at the ISO once again didn't really have their act together.

About a year or two ago, the Cal ISO advance daily forecast of loads was way off. I would have assumed that by then they would have improved the quality of their advance forecast of power needs. Surprises can happen and this is the time of the year when maintenance on lots of power plants are done so they will be available in the Summer, but still, the Cal ISO does need to do better.

9 posted on 03/29/2004 3:12:22 PM PST by Robert357
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To: Robert357
I would have assumed that by then they would have improved the quality of their advance forecast of power needs.

It's apparently not safe to make such assumptions.

10 posted on 03/29/2004 3:15:12 PM PST by .38sw
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah
If I lived in Californicate {I thank God every day that I don't} I would look to invest in a back up generator/2 100lbs propane tanks for the house, if in an apartment I would invest in a couple of extra auto batteries & a power invertor solar battery charger from the auto parts store and Coleman propane lanterns for light cause the state of Californicate is gonna have a long unpleasent summer.
11 posted on 03/29/2004 3:17:53 PM PST by Nebr FAL owner (.308 REACH OUT & THUMP SOMEONE .50BMG REACH OUT & CRUSH SOMEONE!)
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To: Robert357
I can't remember. Where is path 15? I think where I live is path 9.
12 posted on 03/29/2004 3:18:59 PM PST by EggsAckley (....."I see the idiot is here"............)
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To: Dog Gone
...but the granola types hold different views

Now that my oldest son is gainfully employed in the Greater LA area in the financial markets area, I have a more vested interest in the S Cal economy not going in the tank.

I would hope that the newly elected Governator and newly frightened (by a Republican Governor) Democratic bureaucrats would think that having electricity is a pretty important thing, especially since it was one of the major Grey Davis problems that got him kicked out of office. But hey, maybe the granola types need to get more Democrats kicked out of office prior to reaching elightenment. (Maybe that is why they are lighting candles to figure this out..../sarcasm)

13 posted on 03/29/2004 3:19:44 PM PST by Robert357
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To: Robert357
"Arnold needs to clean house."

Priority One: build several new LARGE nuclear plants, soonest.

14 posted on 03/29/2004 3:22:03 PM PST by boris (The deadliest Weapon of Mass Destruction in History is a Leftist With a Word Processor)
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To: Nebr FAL owner
I would look to invest in a back up generator/2 100lbs propane tanks for the house...

Actually, if you have a spare $150,000 to $250,000 you can by a nice 2 MW unit at auction right now. That should be enough for an entire neighborhood or a good sized business. No reserve, so you could always try a $100 bid.

http://www.rbauction.com/spec_ad/olympia_2004125_gensets.jsp

15 posted on 03/29/2004 3:24:29 PM PST by Robert357
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To: .38sw
It's not even that hot today.

It was 93 today here in the L.A. valley, which is hot, but the rest of the area was in the 80's. We shouldn't be having a problem. Now on days in the mid 90's downtown, that is when you have the problems typically.

Leaving California in 8 days now, and damned happy about it.

16 posted on 03/29/2004 3:28:08 PM PST by dogbyte12
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To: .38sw
It's going to be around 80 in the San Joaquin Valley today. I heard it was 97 in Lakeview yesterday.
17 posted on 03/29/2004 3:29:33 PM PST by Canticle_of_Deborah
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah; dogbyte12
Ok, ya got me. It's about 75 here in the east bay. But still, with temps in the 80's and 90's, we're having a problem? Won't July be loads of fun?
18 posted on 03/29/2004 3:32:10 PM PST by .38sw
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To: .38sw
Won't July be loads of fun?

Exactly.

This is one weird Spring.

19 posted on 03/29/2004 3:34:19 PM PST by Canticle_of_Deborah
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To: EggsAckley
Since you asked about path 15;

Path 15 CISO
Midway-Los Banos
Midway-Los Banos 500 kV lines 1&2
Gates-Gregg 230 kV line
Gates-Panoche 230 kV lines 1&2
Gates-McCall 230 kV line

Midway is a very important source of Pacific Northwest Hydro for California. A few days ago, the Cal ISO admitted to an operator error associated with Path 26 resulting in load shedding in Southern California. It will be interesting to see what comes out from the Cal ISO in the next few days to see if this is another operator problem, but this time with path 15

I think that two problems (different paths)in a couple of weeks, is not a good sign for Southern California.

20 posted on 03/29/2004 3:44:09 PM PST by Robert357
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To: Robert357
A quick look at area temps makes this another SoCal prob.

Demand high in SoCal but excess capacity not available north of Path 15 or Path 15 lost full transport capacity.

At least Path 26 is up.

21 posted on 03/29/2004 3:57:00 PM PST by Amerigomag
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To: Nebr FAL owner
"I would be investing in a 5kw generator set"

Calif has so many regulations and laws, you wouldn't be allowed to install let alone run the generator because of pollution controls, noise ordinances, etc.

LOL
22 posted on 03/29/2004 4:06:27 PM PST by George from New England
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To: Amerigomag
At least Path 26 is up

It is only partially "up." I guess someone needs to invent viagra for power lines, it use to be called reconductoring and new construction or else new generation.

From today's WESC Daily Report....From 0000-2400 the Path 26 is limited to 2,500 MW north to south due to area resource limitation.

http://www.wecc.biz/daily_reports/2004/March/20040329.pdf

23 posted on 03/29/2004 4:20:43 PM PST by Robert357
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To: .38sw
It's hot where I live in California! But cooling down for a few days starting tomorrow. Can't believe they are already declaring this.
24 posted on 03/29/2004 4:23:02 PM PST by ladyinred (Weakness Invites War. Peace through Strength (Margaret Thatcher))
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To: Robert357; 1380 KTKZ Sacramento; AnnaZ; Avoiding_Sulla; Grampa Dave; SierraWasp; farmfriend; ...
It is warm, (mildly hot) down here near the beach.

Lossing power today would cause me much trouble.
Putting tests together for tomorrow.

I wonder if Arnoold is aware of this at all?

25 posted on 03/29/2004 4:24:05 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah; *calpowercrisis
Amen to that!
26 posted on 03/29/2004 4:24:47 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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To: Robert357
Posted the basic content of the ISO note on the California BBS and the title and URL of the thread there also.
27 posted on 03/29/2004 4:31:15 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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To: Robert357
Signs of the economy heating up in Cal. Last time this happened was during the peak of the dot-com boom.

All those buildings full of servers and PC's. Somebody must be secretly reinstalling.

28 posted on 03/29/2004 4:34:53 PM PST by muleskinner
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To: Robert357
well, it is 78 degrees in Seattle....will drop 20 degrees tomorrow...
29 posted on 03/29/2004 4:47:23 PM PST by BurbankKarl
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To: Robert357
Well no problem. All those new power plants should be coming online any day now. Oh wait, I forgot, most of them didn't get built. NIMBY. Better stock up on batteries.
30 posted on 03/29/2004 4:53:52 PM PST by Kozak (Anti Shahada: " There is no God named Allah, and Muhammed is his False Prophet")
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To: Robert357

Currently under construction, the Magnolia Power Project will be a clean, high-efficiency, combined-cycle unit on three acres of the existing Burbank Water & Power generating station complex adjacent to Magnolia Boulevard. Total project cost is estimated to be $215 million, with annual operating costs ranging from $8 million to $10 million, plus natural gas fuel supply. Magnolia Power Project operation will improve regional electric reliability since it will dramatically increase the amount of local generation which is not dependent on long-distance interstate transmission lines. Once in service, the unit is expected to operate in a base-load mode (8,000 hours per year or more) and be staffed by Burbank Water & Power personnel on a 24-hour basis.

31 posted on 03/29/2004 4:55:53 PM PST by BurbankKarl
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To: BurbankKarl
http://www.scppa.org/Magnolia/magnoliaoverview.htm


more info on the project...
32 posted on 03/29/2004 5:01:13 PM PST by BurbankKarl
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Nice to hear from you, I expect that you get those tests out. I suspect that after what happened a few days ago, the ISO decided to err on the side of caution rather than try to tough things out too long and find out they had painted themselves into a corner.

However, you would expect that they would try to get their act together.

33 posted on 03/29/2004 5:10:17 PM PST by Robert357
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To: BurbankKarl
That is a nice looking power plant, the only problem I would forsee is that price of the natural gas to fuel it.

I had lunch today with a major Aluminum Company power manager (whose aluminum refinery is still operating--since there are only two in the BPA service territory and I know them both very well), that should narrow it down quickly. What he told me was that he thinks it will be quite a while before natural gas prices come down to levels where most folks can afford the resulting power even from very very efficient CCCT's

I talked to the guy in my office who does long term powerplant feasibility studies and helps various utilities secure bonds to allow them to build power plants. He also see natural gas costs as remaining high for quite a while. I would note that about a weak ago, I think I saw were Reliant got into some trouble for overstating its natural gas reserves, if I remember correctly.

You were right about being a hot day in Seattle, it was nice to get outside and have a business lunch. Have fun.

34 posted on 03/29/2004 5:18:21 PM PST by Robert357
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To: Robert357; Ernest_at_the_Beach
FRom the Sac Bee

Hot temperatures prompt Stage 1 emergency

By Ralph Montaño -- Bee Staff Writer
Published 2:50 p.m. PST Monday, March 29, 2004

[Updated at 4:55 p.m.] Unusually hot weather in Southern California led the California Independent System Operator on Monday afternoon to issue a Stage 1 Electrical Emergency for the state.

Power plant operators were being asked to restrict maintenance and keep as many facilities available to meet needs, said Gregg Fishman, a spokesman for California ISO.

"This is specifically related to Southern California's weather," Fishman said. "Our load is as much as 1,100 megawatts over forecast."

Temperatures were soaring Sunday and Monday around San Diego. Record highs in the 90s were set in Riverside, Yorba Linda, Santa Ana and El Cajon on Sunday and remained high Monday.

At the same time, several plants in Southern California were off for maintenance work Monday. Fishman said the upkeep is usually done at this time of year, but the unseasonably warm temperatures have created a strain on the power grid. Restricting maintenance is one of the first steps when power supplies are tight, he added.

Stage 1 is a low-priority emergency. The ISO declares Stage 1 emergencies when reserves fall to between 6 and 7 percent. A Stage 2 emergency is issued when the reserves are at about 5 percent. Stage 3 emergencies -- the most urgent -- occur when reserves fall below 1.5 percent.

Fishman said the weather will determine if more Stage 1 emergencies will be issued this week.

35 posted on 03/29/2004 5:57:24 PM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi Mac ... Support Our Troops! ... Thrash the demRats in November!!! ... Beat BoXer!!!)
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To: NormsRevenge; Robert357
Mother Nature did a trick on us.

So perhaps we had less plants running than we will during the Summer heat.
36 posted on 03/29/2004 7:02:58 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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To: NormsRevenge; Robert357

37 posted on 03/29/2004 7:14:35 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
So perhaps we had less plants running than we will during the Summer heat.

Perhaps allah and his minions will allow us to have enough power plants, come summer...

38 posted on 03/29/2004 7:18:41 PM PST by null and void (Don't stand idly by and watch your country commit Hairy Kerry!)
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To: .38sw
Hotter than usual in the South San Jose area. So maybe it's hotter than usual in other parts of the state also.
39 posted on 03/29/2004 7:20:29 PM PST by luckystarmom
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To: luckystarmom
I hear John Kerry's in SF with a hugh motorcade. There goes the price of gas again!!
40 posted on 03/29/2004 7:43:35 PM PST by tertiary01 (Quality of life will be based on your value to the government.)
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To: null and void
Allah should not touch our power plants.
41 posted on 03/29/2004 8:05:34 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
"I wonder if Arnoold is aware of this at all?"

Old proverb: "The more things change... the more they stay the same!"

42 posted on 03/29/2004 9:44:54 PM PST by SierraWasp (Coastal CA seems hell-bent on becoming America's version of France!!!)
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To: boris; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Robert357; Dog Gone; Carry_Okie
"build several new LARGE nuclear plants, soonest."

Oh REALLY? Just who would be so bold as to INVEST in such a foolhardy venture??? (with the activists litigants and lousy legislature we have)

43 posted on 03/29/2004 9:49:46 PM PST by SierraWasp (Coastal CA seems hell-bent on becoming America's version of France!!!)
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To: SierraWasp
We're doomed!
44 posted on 03/29/2004 10:17:18 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Childhood church song... "Brighten the corner, where you are..."

I sure hope nobody's playin grabass while Rome's lights are burning out!!!

45 posted on 03/29/2004 10:25:47 PM PST by SierraWasp (Coastal CA seems hell-bent on becoming America's version of France!!!)
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To: boris
Priority One: build several new LARGE nuclear plants, soonest.

Actually, the small ones are where it's at now. Distributed biomass is also a good idea.

46 posted on 03/29/2004 10:46:12 PM PST by Carry_Okie (And the Lord God took the man and put him in the Garden of Eden to dress it and to keep it.)
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To: Carry_Okie
"Actually, the small ones are where it's at now. Distributed biomass is also a good idea."

It sounds like a fancy RTG (radioisotope thermal generator) like the SNAP series we built and tested in the 1960s. Notice how the power level is not stated.

Usually a few kilowatts. I am talking about economies of SCALE, which require a minimum of 500 MEGA watts.

The small ones are definitely not where it's at now--the laws of physics and economics being what they are.

--Boris

47 posted on 03/30/2004 6:23:02 AM PST by boris (The deadliest Weapon of Mass Destruction in History is a Leftist With a Word Processor)
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To: boris
The power itself may be more expensive (at seven cents/KW) but lower line losses, the cost of purchasing rights of way, the advantages of a distributed architecture, fewer security issues, minimal waste and transportation issues, intrinsically safe design,...

If nuclear plants had to pay for the insurance for the risks they induce, these small plants would be a slam dunk.

Here is a page of links.

48 posted on 03/30/2004 7:16:56 AM PST by Carry_Okie (And the Lord God took the man and put him in the Garden of Eden to dress it and to keep it.)
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To: Carry_Okie
"at seven cents/KW"

A kW is a unit of power. Power is charged by the kW-hour, not by the kW.

--Boris

49 posted on 03/30/2004 10:42:36 AM PST by boris (The deadliest Weapon of Mass Destruction in History is a Leftist With a Word Processor)
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To: boris
A kW is a unit of power. Power is charged by the kW-hour, not by the kW.

Did joule really have to make that big a deal out of a typo?

50 posted on 03/30/2004 11:03:16 AM PST by Carry_Okie (There are people in power who are truly gutless.)
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