Afghanistan: Crossing the Rubicon

KARACHI - After the Pakistani army's failure in its recent operation in the South Waziristan tribal area to deal a significant blow to foreign resistance fighters poised for action in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the United States have concluded that they have no alternative other than to undertake "mission impossible": the capture of the "Shawal" base that straddles the border.

To date, US-led forces have respected the Durand Line that separates Afghanistan and Pakistan, waiting for Pakistani forces to drive foreign militants, Afghan resistance fighters and Taliban into their hands from across the border in a "hammer and anvil" approach.

This has proved ineffective, and security forces have told Asia Times Online that, with great reluctance and trepidation, Pakistan and the US will soon launch operations designed to secure the Shawal area.

As Asia Times Online has described (Afghan offensive: Grand plans hit rugged reality, March 20), "Technically speaking, Shawal falls on the Afghan side of the Durand Line that divides Pakistan and Afghanistan. (Editor's note: The border area inside North Waziristan is also called Shawal.) In reality, Shawal is a no-man's land, a place no one would want to go to unless he were as tough as the local tribespeople, a guerrilla fighter taking on the US, or, perhaps, Osama bin Laden. Shawal is a deep and most dangerous maze."

The Shawal area has for centuries given protection to people, explains Senator Syed Murad Ali Shah, one of the most low-profile Jamaat-i-Islami leaders, though he has been a major player in the region of Afghanistan and Iran since 1967.

"The reason why descendents of the Prophet Mohammed's family are found in huge numbers in Afghanistan and along the Indus river has an historic background. After the assassination of Husein in Karbala [in 680] and subsequent clashes between members of Prophet's family and the Umayyads [Husein's killers] several members of the family fled into what is now Iraq, and they also took refuge exactly in this area where Pakistani troops are fighting to arrest foreign fighters. The Arab armies failed to access the area, and later on the Afghan tribes struck a deal with Abu Mosa Ashari that these 'foreigners' under their protection would not move anywhere. The foreigners married into the local population and spread all over the region along the Indus," the senator explained.

Now US commanders believe they are capable of seizing this natural fortress of Shawal, where thick jungles and mountains can swallow many dozens of people without a trace.

A blueprint for the Shawal action has, according to those close to the planning who spoke to Asia Times Online, has been chalked over several meetings between Pakistani President and Chief of Army General Pervez Musharraf, the vice chief of army ataff, General Mohammed Yusuf, and top US commanders, including General Abi Zaid, commander of the US Central Command.

The Shawal targeted in the present campaign is situated in Afghanistan, but the controversial part of the plan is realization that it would be impossible for US troops not to transgress into Pakistani territory in hot pursuit of targets if the mission is to have any success.

It is near impossible for any army to conduct "search and seize" operations in the jungles of Shawal. Therefore, US patrols will disappear into the jungle, and attempt to track down fugitives with satellite technology backed with helicopters. As admitted by Musharraf, few of the foreign fighters have the equipment needed to jam communication systems.

According to the Asia Times Online sources, Pakistani authorities are deeply concerned over the losses incurred in the last operation in South Waziristan. Officially, the government has admitted to the death of about 50 soldiers. But independent sources and witnesses reckon the number could be as high as 800, including both military and paramilitary forces.

Yet as the situation stands now, Pakistan can be expected to incur more losses. Already troops have been ordered to take up positions around the Shawal area, but in Pakistan territory. The locals are unhappy about this presence. They will be a lot less happy when US troops show up on their doorsteps.

A little bit of info of what may possibly be the next stage of the operations in the Afghan-Pakistani border area.

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3 posted on 04/09/2004 9:30:15 AM PDT by Support Free Republic (If Woody had gone straight to the police, this would never have happened!)

Euro.....thanks for the heads up..

I think it is time we start focusing on the Shawal area between Afganistan and Pakistan.

BTW .....note how bad the Pakistani's were mauled in the Wana Operation....estimated 800 KIA.

6 posted on 04/09/2004 2:39:40 PM PDT by armymarinemom (Bring Them Home Now.org--The Few, The Loud, The Latrine)

"Yet as the situation stands now, Pakistan can be expected to incur more losses. Already troops have been ordered to take up positions around the Shawal area, but in Pakistan territory. The locals are unhappy about this presence. They will be a lot less happy when US troops show up on their doorsteps."

Kill them all, we'll be much happier. I'm tired of "locals" who think that the presence of an army is somehow worse than a bunch of murdering fanatics taking refuge with them. They made their choice.

Shawal is so remote, it's hard to even find on maps of the region.

Personally, I think the HVT's may have moved north. It's spring.

http://www.khyber.org/images/maps/nwfpmap01.gif

FWIW: I've believed that in the above map, the NorthernAreas, Chitral, even in the area of Mt. Tirichimir, close to the Pamir Range in the Afghani panhandle - in the arc that leads east to Gilgit, close to the Karakoram highway to China but oh, so, remote.

Last week, we had reports of US firebases in the border areas northeast of Jalalabad.

He wouldn't be hiding in a city.....to much of a chance of being spotted but there has been rumors of him being in Peshawar....I think he is in a very remote valley.

He could be in Shawal...or up near Kashmir.

Swarthy.....the next time we get close......like I think we were in Wana....we won't allow the Paki's to take the lead. We won't allow them to screw it up again..

Let me prick your bubble and drive you to drink.

HVT's have been consistently (whaddoImean? - since ToraBora) at least a couple of steps ahead.

Unless US does independent ops....Pakistanis are too porous. Even now, Mush can't be sure his most trusted generals or their staff don't have jihad conduits.

That is all. Time for a Warsteiner. or two.

Unless US does independent ops.

One of three possibilities. Pedricardis alive or Rasuli dead.

12 posted on 04/10/2004 8:11:21 AM PDT by archy (The darkness will come. It will find you,and it will scare you like you've never been scared before.)

13 posted on 04/11/2004 4:30:59 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (The terrorists and their supporters declared war on the United States - and war is what they got!!!!)

Oh yoo hoo Osama, if you are in the Shawal area get out of there.

14 posted on 04/11/2004 4:43:29 PM PDT by Capt. Tom (Don't confuse the Bushies with the dumb republicans. - Capt. Tom)

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