Toomey and Specter push for last votes

Philadelphia Inquirer ^ | Sun, Apr. 25, 2004 | Carrie Budoff

[Josh in PA]

Toomey and Specter push for last votes

By Carrie Budoff

Inquirer Staff Writer

The tight U.S. Senate primary between Republican incumbent Arlen Specter and U.S. Rep. Patrick Toomey has come down to scenes such as this:

A dozen committed conservatives working the phones in Havertown, searching for Toomey voters one call at a time. Specter counting on President Bush, party regulars, and a national committee that wires him $300,000 to temper a late surge by his opponent.

It's a race that looked like a blowout for Specter just a few weeks ago. But with polls now showing Toomey down by as little as 5 percentage points, the campaigns are immersed in the final task that matters above everything else: mobilizing their vote.

Turnout is expected to be relatively light for Tuesday's primary, so the winner may well be the one who drives the better get-out-the vote effort, say political analysts and aides to both candidates.

Toomey has momentum heading into the election, analysts say, after erasing a double-digit deficit. But Specter's money advantage and experience running a statewide election operation should not be underestimated, analysts say.

"It will be a competition of who has the best ability to get out their grassroots supporters," said William J. Green, a Republican political consultant from Pittsburgh.

The target audience is about one million Republican voters - among 3.1 million statewide - who are likely to show up at the polls, analysts say.

Specter, 74, as the party-endorsed candidate, is relying on Republican committee members to blanket the state. His hope is that they will prod enough moderates, who may be less attuned to the primary election, to vote.

Toomey, 42, has stitched together a volunteer network from conservative ideological groups - abortion opponents, evangelical Christians, gun owners - and Republicans disenchanted with Specter after his 24 years in office.

"The difference we have is, these people would go through an earthquake to vote for Toomey," said Ted Meehan, his eastern Pennsylvania campaign coordinator.

Specter acknowledged that complacency might be his biggest threat.

"His voters are likely to come out in a blizzard, and my voters are likely to need some inducement," Specter told 50 students Friday at Widener University in Chester.

But the tightening polls could motivate his backers.

Virginia Sen. George Allen, who heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, pleaded with his GOP colleagues last week to do everything they could for Specter.

"We want to make sure Sen. Specter has all the resources he needs to get his message and vote out," said Dan Allen (not related to the senator), the committee spokesman.

That has entailed providing $300,000 in the last 10 days for Specter's final media purchase. More could be sent, Dan Allen said.

The money was used on an ad that started Friday featuring Specter's support from Bush and Sen. Rick Santorum - towering figures among the conservative primary electorate.

The Club for Growth, a limited-government, lower-taxes advocacy group that pumped $2 million into the race for Toomey, shot back with more ads accusing Specter of wasteful spending and liberal voting. Toomey's commercials conveyed the same message, except for one ad ending on a softer note. Toomey introduced his family and asked for Pennsylvania's vote.

While ads saturated television, the candidates have returned over the weekend to the areas where they must do well on Tuesday - Specter in moderate Southeastern Pennsylvania, Toomey in conservative central Pennsylvania.

Toomey, a three-term Lehigh County congressman who represents part of Montgomery County, started Friday in Lancaster with a rally and endorsement from James C. Dobson, founder and chairman of Focus on the Family, which promotes traditional family values.

Dobson's appearance in the final days of the campaign was meant to invigorate Toomey's conservative base, reminding voters that he opposes abortion, gay marriage and stem-cell research. He was carrying the same message on a tour yesterday through Reading, York, State College and Williamsport.

Meanwhile, Specter, a former Philadelphia district attorney, traversed the city and its suburbs, holding forums with constituents Friday and revving up supporters yesterday. He dropped into the Italian Market and an American Legion meeting.

Specter has been touting his seniority in the Senate, his ability to deliver federal dollars for state projects, and his endorsements.

Less visible were thousands of campaign workers and volunteers who have fanned out across the state in the last few days and weeks to promote their candidates.

On Thursday night in Havertown, as one Toomey volunteer talked of papering church parking lots with campaign literature, Walt MacFarland was hunched over a nearby desk, prodding a potential voter.

"Arlen Specter votes 50 percent of the time with Ted Kennedy and the Democrats," MacFarland, a retired salesman, barked into the phone. "I hope you are going to vote."

At the end of their two-hour calling spree, the volunteers set aside the names of those who sounded inclined to vote for Toomey. On Tuesday, the campaign will make sure each voter seen as favorable shows up.

Specter said his campaign had operated a "highly professional" get-out-the-vote effort with weeks of e-mails, calls to identify likely voters, direct mail and door-to-door solicitations. College students were offered $50 to $75 a day for their help.

The senator's message may run into some static in Montgomery County, which usually provides Specter with the most votes of any county.

Republicans are handing out flyers for Specter and other party-endorsed candidates over the weekend, said James R. Matthews, a Montgomery County commissioner who is supporting Specter.

But with other elections vying for attention - from the 13th Congressional District race to local party committee contests - the Senate primary may not be the one that Republican activists tout to voters as they head to the polls, Matthews said.

"My own feeling is the Specter organization has to be extremely attentive," Matthews said, "to get out their own message."

[Owen]

>
"Arlen Specter votes 50 percent of the time with Ted Kennedy and the Democrats," MacFarland, a retired salesman, barked into the phone. "I hope you are going to vote."
>

We've been discussing this on other threads. Specter does depart the GOP party line now and then. So, oddly, does Santorum. But when numbers are mentioned like that one above, it ceases to become a matter of opinion and becomes one of mathematics.

One can peruse the Senate roll call votes and find that Specter votes with the GOP the vast majority of the time. This is not "Ice Cream Week" votes of zero consequence because on those the majority of Dems vote the same way. No, you can look at the votes and see that he votes anti Dem and pro GOP most of the time. This statement above by MacFarland is factually in error.

The Toomey guys are enthused and intense and I don't live in PA so I have no dog in the fight. I just think it is important that FReepers support the rightmost candidate who is viable in the GE, and that will be the GOP nominee.

[Big E]

'"His voters are likely to come out in a blizzard, and my voters are likely to need some inducement," Specter told 50 students Friday at Widener University in Chester.'

That says it all to me. The ONLY argument I have heard to vote for Arlen Specter is that he has a better chance to win in November. I have not heard anyone argue that he is the better candidate, or would make the better Senator.

Frankly, I don't see how having Specter as my Senator really gets me much of anything, since he votes more often with the Democrats than not. Since he's not running for re-election after this term, he will have no incentive whatsoever to act like a Republican. He is going to stab the President in the back so fast, it'll make your head spin.

Toomey, on the other hand, would make an excellent Senator. It's a load of crap that he can't win in the general election. If he wins Tuesday, he's already got a big headstart on Hoeffel. He has more money than Hoeffel, and nobody knows who Hoeffel is. It will probably be a reply of the Santorum-Klink race in 2000, where Santorum won relatively easily because who is Ron Klink?

The same thing happened in the Rendell-Fisher race. The whole state knew who Ed Rendell was after all the advertising done in the primary against Casey. I don't think I saw a Fisher ad until September, by which time it was too late. Vote Toomey Tuesday!

[rushmom]

Couldn't disagree with you more. I've followed this stuff for years, and countless times on close votes that were importent to conservatives, you could predict that Specter would be on the wrong side...and he was. I'm not from PA but I hope Mr. Toomey wins.

[First_Salute]

Bump.

[Josh in PA]

Dead on.. Name recognition is everything in Pennsylvania.. If you don't get your name out there, you aren't going to win..

If Toomey was better funded in this effort he would win by 10-15 points, but because hardly anyone knows who he is it's going to be a deadheat.

I visited my family the other day, my mom and my two sisters know who Spector is. I asked them to get out and vote for Pat Toomey on Tuesday and they said, "Who is he?"


If Toomey can get through this, he can win in November.

[Big E]

Yeah, that's the sort of thing that angers me. If Specter wins, it's only because he has 5 times the money, and the system behind him. Not only that, he lies like a rug in his advertising.

It is fair if he wants to claim that his seniority will enable him to better serve PA because he can bring home the pork. But don't go around saying that he's a fiscal conservative, or that Toomey is not pro-life, or other such lies. Arlen Specter is scum, and should be retired on Tuesday.

[fourfivesix]

go Pat go!

[jmc813]

Virginia Sen. George Allen, who heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, pleaded with his GOP colleagues last week to do everything they could for Specter.

What a scumbag.

[nothingnew]

He is going to stab the President in the back so fast, it'll make your head spin.

Ah...but as freeper zeebigreddogz told me yesterday, the President and Santorum HAD to back specter because that's how party building works and the "game" is played.

Don't know about you, but I'm tired of this frikkin game, and so are a lot of other conservatives...if backing a backstabber in your own party is "party building",the ones who back specter need their heads examined...screw the the "game". It's time we dropped out of that game and start our own.

FMCDH

[Josh in PA]

Spector's ads are total bunk. He has nothing to stand on, so he must resort to campaigning on lies about Toomey's positions.

But I really fear his recent Bush ads, which show the video/audio of Bush endorsing him are going to be effective. It was a good move by his campaign and I just have this bad feeling they are hitting home with Republicans in the state.

I think I'm going to backoff my prediction in the other thread. But this thing is going to be a dead-heat. 1-2 points either way. Hopefully bad weather hits on Tuesday and keeps the Spector crowd in. But it doesn't look like it's going to hit too hard.. everything I've seen points to partly sunny with highs in the mid 50s, lows in mid 30s. Perhaps a tad bit chilly? after last week's warm weather.

[fourfivesix]

there are times to break "Reagan's Rule" and this is one of them

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Amen

[OneTimeLurker]

I think the "moderate" Republicans already broke the 11th Commandment.

[Dane]

Virginia Sen. George Allen, who heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, pleaded with his GOP colleagues last week to do everything they could for Specter.

What a scumbag.

Could you also be libertarian correct and also call Barry Goldwater a "scumbag" on FR for the record.

The below passage is from a very recent William Buckley article.

... The presidential endorsement is, after all, political dutifulness. Memory recalls a huge rally of conservatives at Garden City, Long Island, in 1962. The speaker was their hero, Sen. Barry Goldwater, whose nomination for president was the heart's desire of the 2,000 persons present. The enemy, in those days, was Sen. Jacob Javits, resented routinely because he was a political liberal, but despised because he was a Republican. There is no fury like that felt by the priestly caste against impostors. Everyone was waiting to hear the answer to the question: Senator Goldwater, do you endorse the re-election of Senator Javits?

"Yes." Stunned silence. Then: "I am chairman of the Republican senatorial campaign committee. Who do you think I favor?..."

LINK

Oh BTW jmc, notice that George Allen's remarks are not in quotes but the reporters speculation, which you bit on like a fish that sees a worm in the water, IMO.

[Dane]

See reply #15.

[Common Tator]

Toomey, on the other hand, would make an excellent Senator. It's a load of crap that he can't win in the general election. If he wins Tuesday, he's already got a big headstart on Hoeffel. He has more money than Hoeffel, and nobody knows who Hoeffel is. It will probably be a reply of the Santorum-Klink race in 2000, where Santorum won relatively easily because who is Ron Klink?

Bush, Rove, and Santorum all know that Toomey can't win in the fall. This is a presidential year. All the Democrats will vote. The turn out in the general election will be 105 to 107 million. There are more Democrats and left leaning Centrists in P.A then there are right leaning Centrists and Conservatives.Wwhen all the Democrats and Democrat leaners vote, a conservative in PA can not win.

If you think Toomey can induce liberals to vote for a conservative you have to be totally removed from reality. What part of P.A. is a left leaning state escapes you.

You are working to elect Joe Hoefel.. Joe knows it.. and you do to.

Success for the right is pretty simple. First the majority of voters have to be converted so they will vote for a conservative candidate in the general election. Secondly, nominate conservative candidates.

Right wing zealots always try to skip the first step. It is way to hard and too long term for for them to endure. They work to nominate conservatives that lose to liberals.

Right wing conservatives tend to prize revenge over victory. That is why they mostly lose, and liberals mostly win.

[kylaka]

I'm sure the word is out that W has his fingers crossed behind his back as he endorses Spector. I think Arlen has a big surprise in store. I mean, practically every democrat in Pennsylvania has endorsed Spector. (Do ya think Toomey can get Jim Jeffords to publicly endorse Arlen?)

[FairOpinion]

It's just like our CA elections.

In CA we have lots of experience with Republicans electing "great conservative" Republicans in the primary, who go down in flames in the actual election, resulting in us ending up with a Democrat every single time. That's exactly why we have a Democrat in every single statewide elected office -- Schwarzenegger being the sole exception.

In this case, Toomey's success in the primary may well result in a Dem win in November, which may result in getting the entire US Senate back into the hands of Democrats.

How will our fine conservatives like that?

People just don't think things through and don't see that they are cutting off their nose to spite their face.

[Big E]

I'm with you. I understand "party loyalty" and that sort of thing, but it sure seems that the GOP establishment is going above and beyond the call of duty to back Specter. Way more than he ever backs them in the Senate. If Bush and Santorum were not so visible in this race, Toomey would win. If Bush were actively backing Toomey, it'd be a Toomey landslide.

Nonetheless, I still think Toomey wins.