Dales' Electoral College Breakdown 2004, May 12th Update

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

Apples To Apples

Apples to apples, funk to funky, you know that we're all poll junkies...

My recent articles have touched on the hunt for the likely voter, how elusive a hunt it can be, and how different companies use different methods to try to predict who they are. A major challenge in trying to weigh several polling results across different polling firms is that the methods can be so different that differences in the results can be not merely due to the random fluctuations that occur invariably a part of sampling, and not merely due to any underlying movement in voter sentiment, but also due to the different techniques used in accumulating and presenting the data. While I have confidence in my ability to weigh these factors, it is still a worthwhile exercise to occasionally compare apples only to apples, and look only at multiple results by the same outfit.

Campaign 2004 is still relatively young, and the vast majority of states have not had a single company produce more than one poll. However, a number have and looking at them exclusively can help give form to some of the early campaign trends.

Arizona:

SurveyUSA: Bush increased his lead by 1 from 2/19 to 3/18
Arizona State University: Bush gained 5 points from 2/22 to 4/26
Behavior Research Center: Kerry gained 6 points from 1/29 to 5/4

Overall: No conclusive evidence of movement.

California:

LA Times: Bush trimmed 1 point off of Kerry's lead from 2/22 to 4/21
Rasmussen: Kerry jumped 4 points from 1/18 to 3/11, then another 2 points by 4/17
Knowledge Networks: Kerry gained 1 point from 2/13 to 2/27

Overall: No conclusive evidence of movement. If there has been any shown by the apples to apples comparison, it has been a very small amount towards Kerry.

Colorado:

Public Opinion Strategies: Bush lost 1 point off of his lead from 12/16 to 4/2.

Overall: No conclusive evidence of movement.

Connecticut:

University of Connecticut: Kerry has gained 5-6 points from 2/26 to 4/27.

Overall: The state has solidified under Kerry.

Florida:

American Research Group: Bush has gained 2 points from 3/4 to 4/21
Rasmussen: Kerry gained 5 points from 1/15 to 3/14, but then Bush gained back 2 points by 4/13, for a net move of 3 towards Kerry.

Overall: No conclusive evidence of movement.

Kansas:

SurveyUSA: Bush has gained 10 points from 2/9 to 3/4

Overall: The state has solidified under Bush.

Maryland:

Gonzalez Research: Bush narrowed Kerry's lead by 6 from 2/8 to 3/24

Overall: It looks like it might be movement towards Bush.

Michigan:

SurveyUSA: Had Bush over Kerry by 10 in late '03, but as of 2/3 it was a more realistic 5 point Kerry lead. Since then, they had Kerry up 10 by 4/4, but back to 4 points on 5/2.
Epic: Kerry has lost 2 points from 2/22 to 4/1

Overall: From the time of the primary until now, there has been no movement in Michigan.

Missouri:

Decision Research (D): no change from 2/14 to 3/2.

Overall: No indication of any movement.

New Hampshire:

University of New Hampshire: Kerry has lost 11 points from 2/20 to 4/26
American Research Group: Bush was up by 12 before the primary season. After, he was up by either 6 or 2 depending on if Nader was in, as of 3/18. Then, by 4/1, it was 5 or 3.

Overall: ARG has shown no movement since the primary. UNH has shown a lot, but its methodology is very suspect.

New Jersey:

Fairleigh Dickinson University: Bush lost 4 points from 1/11 to 4/10.
Rutgers: Bush lost 9 points from 1/13 to 5/4.

Overall: There has been some movement towards Kerry, moving the state into his ledger where most will agree it should have been all along.

New York:

Quinnipiac: Kerry gained 6 from 10/28/03 to 4/12.
Marist: Kerry gained 16 from what an unnamed democrat had from 1/7 to 4/15

Overall: The state has consolidated under Kerry.

Pennsylvania:

Quinnipiac: Kerry lost 4-9 points (depending on Nader) from 2/18 to 3/15. Bush gained 5-2 points more from 3/16 to 4/19.
Keystone: Bush gained 7 points from 2/22 to 3/29

Overall: There has been indication of movement towards Bush.

Washington:

SurveyUSA: Kerry lost 8 points from 2/4 to 3/24.

Overall: Some indication of movement towards Bush, but it is just one poll with the first taken at a Democrat highpoint.

Wisconsin:

Badger Poll: had Kerry losing 20-22 points from 1/27 to 3/31, then losing 6-8 points more by 4/28

Overall: That is some serious movement, and enough to make one wonder if one of the extremes there was an outlier, especially when compared to other polls done just one time so far. However, the Badger Poll has been accurate in the past. There is enough evidence here to doubt the indicated movement, and simply call it inconclusive.

Taken together, the results of this particular way of looking at the polls show that in the early part of the campaign, Kerry has solidified the New York tri-state area. Bush solidified Kansas, made some headway in Maryland, but most importantly, was able to gain some traction in Pennsylvania. A few other states showed possible movement towards the President (Washington, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin) but it is hard to be sure. Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, and Missouri remained about the same.

Obviously, each of these trend lines must be taken with a few caveats. There were limited data points per state. In addition, in most cases the most recent result was over a month ago, which means that there could have been movement since that time which this view will not reflect. As always, caveat lector. It is useful, however, to compare these limited trends to the perceptions at the time. Over the past several weeks, the general consensus has been that Kerry had been making headway in the Electoral College, even if the popular vote was remaining a neck-and-neck race. This one particular perspective says that may not have been the case.

Moving on to the national popular vote race, Marist has a new poll out. It is a mood survey, rather than a horserace one; it asks a number of questions but not "for who do you plan to vote?"

Some interesting points:

Which issues are Americans most interested in hearing about? The top two are "Domestic Issues" and "Jobs & Economy", followed by "Homeland Security", "War on Terrorism", and "Situation in Iraq." I always hate this question, because invariably they give "Domestic Issues" as a choice and it is entirely too broad, that encompasses so many things as to be not very insightful while also overlapping other choices (such as homeland security).
Which party would prefer for us to be discussing Iraq? By a 4-point margin, the answer is the Democrats. Obviously, the Democrats sense an opportunity to gain political points over the war.
Which groups is least concerned with the war on terror? Independents-- only 8%.
The "Undecideds" differ from "Independents". Independents' top priority is "Domestic Issues". Undecides top priority is "Jobs & Economy".
Independents want to talk about the war on terrorism the least, while the undecideds want to talk about it at a rate higher than that of the average American.
Undecideds, like Republicans, are uninterested in hearing about the "Situation in Iraq."
Undecideds, like Democrats, are not interested in hearing about "Homeland Security."
A whopping 72% of undecided voters think the candidates are talking too little about their top issue.
That said, 67% of undecided voters are paying little or no attention to the race.

These results allow me to profile a typical "undecided" voter in the Marist survey. It is a person who feels secure at home, and is glad the war on terror is being fought primarily overseas. It is a person who thinks that the war is necessary but distasteful and does not want it politicized by either party. It is a person relatively apathetic about social issues. It is a person who wants proof that the economy has turned around, and thinks the campaign so far has not been aimed at them. As a result, they have not been paying attention (or perhaps, they have not been paying attention, so they think the campaign has not been aimed at them).

Some more tidbits of note from the Marist survey:

More Republicans, by a 7 point margin, think the coming election will matter a great deal (78%-71%). This is another indication of which side is more energized.
By comparison, only 55% of independents think who wins matters a great deal.
Only 3% of Bush supporters think who wins matters not at all. The same percentage of Kerry supporters share that view. Over a quarter (27%) of undecideds think it matters not at all.
Taken further, 41% of undecideds think it matters little or not at all who wins. This compares to 9% of Bush supporters and 12% of Kerry supporters.
50% of Bush supporters think the candidates are talking about the right amount about the supporters' primary issue. Only 34% of Kerry supporters feel the same.

And while the exact horserace number is not given, from the numbers it is clear that Marist still has it as being an effective tie among registered voters. I suspect that will not be surprising to pretty much anyone.

This Week's Polling Updates Overview

As for the battleground states, I introduced this week a feature where I will be tracking what I consider to be the battlegrounds.

While most of the media attention this year has been on the 18 most tightly contested states from the 2000 election, it is highly unlikely that when the 2004 election is in the books, that the list will be unchanged. Some other states will end up being tighter than these states were in 2000.

In the ECB2004, I use a different measure of what is a battleground state. I have spoken to some degree about what I consider a battleground state to be in my About page and in an earlier article. I will now clarify my definition further.

The simplest definition of the battleground states are those which are most likely to be able to go either way in the coming election. At any point in time, the states which are polling to where I do not consider there to be a clear leader are in one of three designations: Slight Advantage for Kerry, Slight Advantage for Bush, and Tossup. This is what I call the battleground range.

The battleground states, according the the ECB2004, are any states which have been designated at any point during the campaign as being in the battleground range, so long as the state has not subsequently moved to one of the Strong designations. A state can move to Lean and will still be considered, by me, a battleground state. Only when a state moves to Strong does it lose that designation. And once it loses that designation, it will not get it back until it falls back into the battleground range; if a state moves to Strong but then back to Lean, it does not revert to a battleground state.

There will be considerable overlap between my battleground states and those the media focuses on. But there will be differences as well. These states are the ones I am suggesting interested election-followers to pay most attention.

At the start of ECB2004, the following states were designated as battleground states: Florida, West Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Maine, Nevada, New Jersey (yes, New Jersey), Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New Mexico (please note that in the original article on the battlegrounds this year, I mistakenly omitted New Mexico even though my chart showed it in the battleground range). Subsequently, Arizona, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Arkansas have been added, and Maine has fallen out, making for a list of 15. Most of these are, in fact, states which are considered battlegrounds by the media.

The following chart summarizes the Battlegrounds (and from this point forward, I am intending to keep this chart updated). In this chart, the Media Battleground states are the 18 most closely contested in 2000.

Yes, New Jersey sticks out like a sore thumb. And yes, I guess I am inviting more of the "you're nuts" comments I previously was getting by having it here, but by the methodology it belongs.

The four states which are were in the list of 18 tightest 2000 races but are not in the above list are Maine (discussed earlier, started in the battleground but is now Strong For Kerry), Washington (which has hovered at Leaning for Kerry since the start of ECB2004), Missouri and Tennesseee (both of which have been Leaning for Bush since the start of ECB2004). And just for completeness sake, the other states which are sometimes mentioned by the media as being contested are Colorado and Louisiana, both of which Bush won by 8 and are now Leaning Towards Bush, and less frequently Delaware (due to Bush advertising there, won by Gore by 13, currently Strong for Kerry).

State	2000 Result	Media Battleground	Current Status
Florida	Bush +0.01	Yes	Push
New Mexico	Gore +0.06	Yes	Push
Wisconsin	Gore +0.2	Yes	Push
Iowa	Gore +0.3	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Oregon	Gore +0.4	Yes	Push
New Hampshire	Bush +1	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Minnesota	Gore +2	Yes	Kerry, Lean
Ohio	Bush +4	Yes	Push
Nevada	Bush +4	Yes	Bush, Lean
Pennsylvania	Gore +4	Yes	Bush, Slight
Michigan	Gore +5	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Arkansas	Bush +5	Yes	Bush, Slight
Arizona	Bush +6	Yes	Bush, Slight
West Virginia	Bush +6	Yes	Bush, Lean
New Jersey	Gore +16	No	Kerry, Lean

	Arizona
Electoral Votes: 10
2000 Result
Bush 51%
Gore 45%

Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided. Arizona has 6 of 8 of its Representatives and both of its Senators from the GOP. The GOP also controls both chambers of the state legislature. The top of the executive branch is run by Democrats, with Janet Napolitano being a first term Governor and Terry Goddard being the Attorney General. Most other top executive offices are held by Republicans. Republicans have a 41% to 35% lead in voter registration.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
7/18/03	Behavior Research Center	Link	701 Adults	4.3%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Opponent	41%	Bush +14
1/11/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	641 Adults	3.9%	Bush	50%	Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean)	38%	Bush +12
2/19/04	SurveyUSA	Link	RV	4.3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	44%	Bush +8
2/22/04	Arizona State University	Link	430 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Dem +2
3/18/04	Survey USA	Link	634 LV	4.0%	Bush	51%	Kerry	42%	Bush +9
4/26/04	Arizona State University	Link	410 RV	4.8%	Bush	41%	Kerry	38%	Bush +3
5/4/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	555 RV, Nader not an option	4.2%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
5/4/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	555 RV, Nader an option	4.2%	Bush	45%	Kerry	37%	Bush +8
5/4/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	LV	?	Bush	49%	Kerry	41%	Bush +8

Punditry: Behavior Research Center previously had Bush leading comfortably; since late January Kerry has whittled away 6 points of the President's lead in this survey. Please note that while the article that writes up this poll said the results were from 713 adults, this is almost certainly just a mistake based on the way BRC writes up their polls. They do drill down to likely voters, but do not make it clear in the section where they write up the sample sizes as to what portion of the overall sample is in the likely voter portion. Slight Advantage for Bush.

Addendum: Wait a second here. A day later, and I now have a link to the actual writeup on the BRC poll, and not just what the newspaper reported. First, the four point result was among registered voters. Second, when Nader is factored in, it opens up to an 8 point Bush lead. Third, in a two man race when it is considered to be likely voters, it is an 8 point Bush lead. Those numbers put a whole different perspective on that poll. I am awfully tempted to return this poll to the leaning Bush category.

	F		West Virginia
Electoral Votes: 5
2000 Result
Bush 52%
Gore 46%

Background: It was a huge change from the past when Bush beat Gore here in 2000. Over the last eighteen elections, the Democrats have won 14, and both of Clinton's wins would almost certainly have come even without Ross Perot. This is not a state the Democrats should have lost.

In the first ECB of 2000, West Virginia was rated as a battleground state with a slight advantage to Bush. This time around, it is starting as a complete tossup. Two of West Virginia's three Representatives are Democrats. Democrats control everything else: both Senate seats, both chambers of the state legislature, and the top executive branch offices. It is easy to see why, when 60% of the registered voters are Democrats and just 29% Republican.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
4/15/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	41%	Bush +5
4/29/04	Ipsos Public Affairs	Link	984 RV	3%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4

Punditry: The Ipsos poll serves as a validation of the earlier Rasmussen poll, showing that Bush has opened up a bit of a lead in wild, wonderful West Virginia. Since the Ipsos poll's results are outside of a single span of the Margin of Error, and since RV polls tend to overstate Democrat support, I am recategorizing West Virginia as Leaning Towards Bush.

Update: KQQL provided me a link that showed the original article listed for the Ipsos poll had the numbers wrong- it is 49-45, as opposed to 47-43. No real change, just different.

	F		Oregon
Electoral Votes: 7
2000 Result
Gore 46.96%
Bush 46.52%

Background: The last 10 elections have gone 1-5-4. Without Perot, Clinton would likely have lost his initial run here though. From 1968 on, the only Democrat to break 50% here was Michael Dukakis; Reagan and Nixon each broke 50% in their re-elect.

In early 2000, Oregon was polling strongly for Bush. The left coast influence eventually took hold and turned it into a very even state, and it starts this year as a tossup. Democrats hold 4 out of 5 Representative seats, while the Senate seats are divided, just as control of the state legislative chambers is split. The Democrats hold most of the executive branch positions. Democrats hold a 3% lead in registration, 39%-36%.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
3/5/04	Hibbits	Link	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +5
4/7/04	University of Oregon	Link	440 RV	4.7%	Bush	47%	Kerry	45%	Bush +2
4/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1
4/29/04	Research2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +2
5/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	45%	Push

Punditry: As I have explained many times (including on my about page), I tend to consider all three of the most even categories, the two Slight Advantage categories plus the tossup category, to be indicative of a race that really is too close to consider either candidate as really being ahead. As such, I am more likely to put a state in the "tossup" category than to ascribe a Slight Advantage. Given that of the last four polls, one has had a two point Kerry lead, one has had a one point Kerry lead, one has had a two point Bush lead, and now this one has a dead heat, I will take this opportunity to move Oregon to the Tossup category.

Here is a strange note from the writeup to this poll: "Kerry loses support among Republicans when Nader is on the ballot. Without Nader on the ballot, 8% of Republicans say they would vote for Kerry. With Nader on the ballot, 2% of Republicans say they would vote for Kerry."

	New Jersey
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Gore 56%
Bush 40%

Background: New Jersey used to be considered a Republican state. Those days have passed, although there are still some signs of life. In the last 10 Presidential elections it has gone 1-6-3 with the Republican wins coming in the middle, the last Clinton win and the Gore win were by such substantial margins that it is hard to avoid the feeling that New Jersey is trending leftward.

If New Jersey remains tight enough to stay in the battleground, it is a case of back to the future. ECB2000 started with it leaning Gore's way. The Democrats have 7 of 13 Representatives and both Senate seats, control both chambers of the state legislature, hold all of the important executive offices, and have a 25%-19% advantage in voter registration.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
9/8/03	Rutgers	Link	802 Adults	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	35%	Bush +8
9/15/03	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	36%	Unnamed Democrat	29%	Bush +7
9/25/03	Quinnipiac	Link	RV	3.1%	Bush	48%	Kerry	43%	Bush +5
11/10/03	Quinnipiac	Link	1,027 RV	3.1%	Bush	46%	Kerry	43%	Bush +3
1/11/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	600 RV	4%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	32%	Bush +8
1/13/04	Rutgers	Link	823 RV	4.2%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +3
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader not an option	3.5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +1
4/10/04	Fairleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind	Link	802 RV, Nader an option	3.5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
4/20/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	39%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +12
5/4/04	Rutgers / Eagleton	Link	643 RV	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +6

Punditry: Ha! I guessed right at where to move this poll last time, and as such I do not have to work as hard in modifying maps and other files to do this update. Happy, happy, joy, joy. As for the poll, it confirms to me that right now, New Jersey is a lot closer than anyone would have expected. Also, as a registered voter poll in a state that has significantly more registered Democrats than Republicans, it is a very impressive result by the President. I stand by my assertion that New Jersey is in play, even while acknowledging it still favors Kerry. Leaning Towards Kerry

Addendum: A very interesting item of note in the poll. They asked people to rate their chances of voting in November on a scale from 1 to 10. 93% of Republicans claimed they will definitely vote (a 10), while 1% of Republicans said their chances of voting merited merely a 1, 2, or 3. For the Democrats, 82% said it's a 10 on that scale that they will vote, but 5% said a 1, 2, or 3. Perhaps the voting intensity that supposedly is going to favor the Democrats this election cycle, will not?

	F		California
Electoral Votes: 55
2000 Result
Gore 53%
Bush 42%

Background: On a three election streak for the Democrats, California has a reputation as a liberal bastion. While Gore did handle Bush easily in 2000, the fact is that the reputation may not fit the data on the Presidential level. Only three candidates have broken 53% in California since the 1964 landslide. Al Gore last time, homestate icon Ronald Reagan in his re-election campaign but not his first election, and Richard Nixon in his re-election campaign but not his first successful Presidential campaign.

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican	Democrat	Margin
8/16/03	Field	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +5
8/16/03	Public Policy Institute	NA	LV	3%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Dem +5
1/3/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	LV	3%	Bush	45%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Tied
1/13/04	Field	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/18/04	Rasmussen	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Dem +5
2/13/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	RV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	42%	Dem +4
2/16/04	Public Policy Institute	Link	1,103 LV	3%	Bush	37%	Kerry	54%	Dem +17
2/22/04	LA Times	Link	1,521 RV	3%	Bush	40%	Kerry	53%	Dem +13
2/27/04	Knowledge Networks	Link	505 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +5
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	455 LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +9
4/17/04	Rasmussen	Link	502 LV	5%	Bush	40%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +11
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	39%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	L.A. Times	Link	1,265 LV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	41%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +12
5/6/04	SurveyUSA	Link	635 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +1

Punditry: All I can say is this is a jaw dropping poll result right now, which to my mind can only be explained as an outlier. That said, outliers do not happen in a vacuum. If a poll with a 4% MoE is off by more than 4, it will tend to be off by 5. It is almost never going to be off by 8 or 9 or 10.

Is California in play? I highly doubt it. I do think this poll is one of those every-twenty-or-so that are outside of the margin of error. But that still tells me Bush has made up some ground, and it still tells me that California, like New Jersey, is not as wide of a spread as one would expect given the closeness of the national polls.

By the raw numbers this makes it Slight for Kerry, and by a comfortable margin. No way am I moving it there. Leaning Towards Kerry.

Kerry E		F Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	MD (10) K48-B43 3/24/04	IA (7) K47-B46 4/21/04	NM (5) B46-K45 4/1/04	AR (6) B45-K45 5/2/04	VA (13) B48-WC33 12/3/03	SC (8) B52-UD36 7/28/03	AK (3)
HI (4)	ME (4) K51-B38 3/4/04	MN (10) K50-B38 4/2/04	MI (17) K47-B43 5/2/04	OH (20) B46-K45 4/2/04	PA (21) B46-K46 4/25/04	GA (15) B47-UD43 2/4/04	MS (6) B49-UD29 12/22/03	ND (3)
RI (4) K53-B31 2/7/04	IL (21) K47-B39 3/13/04	WA (11) K46-B41 4/5/04	NH (4) K49-B45 4/26/04	FL (27) B46-K45 4/21/04	AZ (10) B46-K42 5/4/04	NV (5) B49-K38 3/17/04	SD (3) B50-UD39 2/5/04	NE (5)
MA (12) K54-B32 4/5/04	NY (31) K51-B32 4/22/04	NJ (15) K43-B37 5/4/04	-	WI (10) K50-B42 B50-K38 4/28/04	-	TN (11) B52-K41 3/22/04	KY (8) B57-K41 2/16/04	WY (3)
-	CT (7) K51-B33 4/27/04	CA (55) K46-B45 5/6/04	-	OR (7) K45-B45 5/4/04	-	MO (11) B49-K42 3/23/04	KS (6) B57-K39 3/4/04	MT (3) B52-UD27 5/16/03
-	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	-	-	-	-	CO (9) B49-K44 4/14/04	IN (11) B52-K37 3/24/04	TX (34) B54-K35 3/6/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	NC (15) B51-K44 4/1/04	OK (7) B47-K35 4/1/04	ID (4) B55-K23 3/17/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	WV (5) B49-K45 4/29/04	LA (9) B52-K38 3/28/04	UT (5) B66-K24 3/25/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AL (9) B55-K36 5/3/04
Totals
Kerry States	Battleground States	Bush States

23	69	101	28	69	37	84	58	69

193	134	211

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