Posted on 05/18/2004 5:15:31 AM PDT by SJackson
It’s interesting to see what no longer makes headlines in America's Iraq campaign.
On 26 April, a huge explosion rocked the Waziriyah section of Baghdad, killing two American soldiers and leveling an entire building. The Arab Times said authorities thought the building might have contained ‘chemical munitions,’ and that the soldiers were part of an Army team going in to investigate. Some of the local residents, however, said the building had been a perfume factory. I spoke to a U.S. WMD detection team member several days ago about the incident. He thought it was suspicious, to say the least.
First, the building seems to have been booby-trapped with high explosives, enough to raze the whole thing in seconds. (Other theories, e.g., the sudden combustion of chemical fumes, are implausible.) But if it was an HE booby-trap, then clearly the intent was to do more than simply discourage intruders — it was to completely destroy the structure and its contents. Why? What was hidden? And why was obliteration preferable to discovery?
Second, there is the perfume. Perfume can be an excellent mask for chemical weapons. The detection equipment inspectors use can be confused by perfume, making it difficult (often impossible) to detect CW residue in, say, the rubble of a destroyed building.
Add these two together — a secret protected with HE, in a structure containing an effective CW screening agent — and you have a blue-ribbon candidate for a WMD discovery, even if it the destruction of the facility means the case can never be conclusively proven.
So, why has no one in the Administration brought up, even casually, the ‘perfume factory’ incident?
The answer to that question is important, and it speaks to the heart of where we stand in Iraq today.
Success and Control
The relative (and ‘relative’ is a crucial term here) unimportance of WMD became obvious shortly after the fall of Baghdad. If the American occupation had more effectively secured the country, thereby manifesting both the benevolence and irresistibility of U.S. power, lack of WMD would have mattered little. But it was also clear that if the occupation went bad and America was seen as unable to control Iraq, all the WMD discoveries imaginable wouldn’t salvage the disaster.
Unfortunately, it is the latter possibility that we are facing today, and the Administration realizes we are past the point where the suspect perfume factory is going to make any difference to anyone.
Success in Iraq is eluding us, and not because we haven’t found WMD. Success is slipping away because we lack control. Or more to the point, the people of the Middle East — friend and foe alike — perceive that we lack control.
Take the Abu Ghraib prison fiasco. It’s certainly a train wreck, no doubt about it, but not for the reasons commonly cited.
Everyone from President Bush to the editorial page of your hometown newspaper is insisting that the conduct of the guards at Abu Ghraib does not reflect the real America. This is true, but it gets the problem precisely backwards.
Of course those bestial guards don’t reflect American values, and that’s why the brutality is such a disaster for us. It shows, once again, that the U.S. government does not control the situation in Iraq, even when it involves the comportment of its own soldiers, soldiers engaged in a vital mission.
The chaotic milieu in Abu Ghraib joins the list of circumstances in Iraq that are evidently beyond the ability of U.S. officials to control.
When you cut through all the talk about finding WMD and building schools and liberating the oppressed — all important goals, no doubt — America’s fundamental interest in Iraq is to show the Iraqis, and the region as a whole, that we are the winning side. That we are competent. That we have the will and the ability to articulate and promote our interests in the Middle East, regardless of who may oppose us.
With competence and control and public safety as our foundation in Iraq, all else is doable — the public facilities, the self-government, the decent civil society. But without real control, none of the rest stands a chance.
In the Middle East, it is vitally important to be on the winning side. Middle Easterners will rally to winners, but only a suicidal fool will join forces with losers, because loss in the Arab world often means the loss of everything.
We must show the Iraqis that we are the winning side. One year ago — with adequate money, personnel, and planning — we had a good chance of doing just that. We can still do it today, but it is going to be much more difficult. We have a lot of ground to win back.
This is no time to panic, appease, or cut-and-run. It is time to exert power and authority on a scale we have thus far avoided.
But we mustn’t kid ourselves. The hour is late and the stakes are high. If Bush doesn’t turn things around now — today — it won’t much matter who wins in November, because by then the show will be over.
Mr. Carroll is a former officer in the Clandestine Service of the CIA, currently on the editorial board of the Middle East Intelligence Bulletin.
ping
When Bush finally lays out his hand, libs will be weeping and wailing and gnashing their teeth.
Just my 2¢ worth...
Wrong on that premise.
Take a look around you Mr. Carroll. The degradation is all about us, under the guise of "RIGHTS"!
We must win in Iraq as our actions there, win or lose, will chart the course of both the middle east as well as the success of the Islamists around the world for a long time to come. This battle has been coming for a long time and history, with the events of 9/11, has chosen Bush to fight it.
Wrong. Every war has screwups, "lack of control," etc. In Gulf War I, our own planes accounted for the single biggest casualty count on any day of the war outside the SCUD missile attack on a barracks. Our own screwups in 1944 during the training for D-Day killed 1,000 soldiers. POWs get shot; bad guys get set free by accident. These are the things of war, and that's what is so frustrating is that people like this guy should KNOW this.
As for "control," if I'm an AQ type, I've lost Afghanistan and Iraq in three years, and I've had the Saudis (supposedly) launch a new offensive against AQ; and I've had Pakistan's president side with the Americans. I've seen Syra put on the "excrement list." I've seen Moammar Khaddafi "come clean" and disarm before he's invade. Any sensible Muslim would have to conclude we are winning, and winning big.
This guy speaks as if the Iraq war is going badly. It's been all of 14 months and it's in the heart of the Middle East. Damn our military is outstanding!
"Hey, Achemd"
"Hey, Mohammad"
"Whatcha need, Achmed?"
"Not sure. This one smells pretty good."
"Yeh, nice smell. And it will take down a ten-story building."
"Oh, good, I'll take 2 bottles. Got anything for car bombs."
"Yeh, this cologne will make big boom."
"Ok, give me 3 bottle."
I think you're right, and I've shared this belief all along. W is building a bigger case than any of us could possibly know. IMO>
I was a little suprised that no effort was made to secure Iraq's borders at the begining, but I suppose that could be written off to not having enough boots on the ground.
High tech can win battles, but control requires boots on the ground.
I just pray to God that they don't lob a big one into our boys. Ofcourse that would mean MORE blood on the hands of the Evil Dums and Media.
I seem to recall practically verbatim comments back during the CFR debacle. Too many on our side attribute mythical powers of "strategery" to Bush. While the press and the leftists regularly misunderestimate the president, he is not without flaws.
Bush would be far higher in the polls if he would be more aggressive in Iraq. Instead he is apologizing for the actions of a few E3s and E4s while the enemy gleefully decapitates civilians on film. President Bush should have come out and said, "I have personally ordered the Court Martial of those personnel involved in the Abu Ghraib prison case, and have instructed the Department of Defense to issue a full report to include preventative measures for future cases. Any further comment would be counterproductive to the ongoing investigation." He should have publicly humiliated any democrat senator who pressed the matter further as damaging the United States criminal case against the alleged offenders. I guarantee a tough stand against both the terrorists and the dirtbag democrats would have gotten him more points in the polls than any apology to some 3rd world tinpot dictator.
Kerry is a dirtbag with no business being within a 100 mile radius of Washington D.C., but that won't stop the American voters from electing him.
Take a look around you Mr. Carroll. The degradation is all about us, under the guise of "RIGHTS"!
The FBI's uniform crime report for 2002:
14,054 murders in the U.S.
95,136 forcible rapes in the U.S.
420,637 robberies in the U.S.
What pisses off the dominate media, preening politicians, and illiterate masses? Some trailer trash in Baghdad with hyped up hormones. Why no real perspective in this whole mess?
MoodyBlu
The lib spin already being heard is that this was some leftover shell from before Saddam was forced to destroy his nerve gas in the early 90s. Like Saddam had so much of this stuff that they missed a little when they went to destroy it.
Huh? Because of a small group of terrorists? Because of a few idiotic, perverted soldiers? Is this guy's name Chicken Little?
"The answer is sobering"
I'm sorry, I read the entire "answer" and I'm not any more sober than I was a few minutes ago.
Not poker.
Not Texas Hold'em.
Three-card Monty. And the Left is the dealer.
I am losing hope, here.
Exactly what has Powell flip-flopped on? And be careful. He's been misquoted in the media a number of times, so check your information before you answer.
President Bush may be playing a great game of poker...but this is a bare knuckle boxing match. And the nose on our poker face is about to get broken unless we start fighting. Not only fighting, but take the 24 ounce fluffly gloves off too.
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