Posted on 05/29/2004 4:48:59 PM PDT by Graybeard58
President Bush leads John Kerry by 6 percentage points in the battle for Ohio, a state that could decide who wins the White House, according to a statewide Plain Dealer poll.
Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over Kerry, 47 percent to 41 percent. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader draws 3 percent, though he has yet to qualify for the Ohio ballot. Nine percent say they are undecided.
Though Bush is given low marks for his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq, those who say they favor him cite his moral character and his stewardship over the war on terrorism and homeland security as reasons.
"I'm very concerned about what a change of administration would mean, primarily about security," says Bob Saul, a retired General Electric marketing manager from Cincinnati who participated in the poll.
Though the economy remains a major concern, Saul says he is not willing to risk returning "to an era of appeasement and therefore wind up being more vulnerable to future attacks."
Much of Kerry's support (62 percent) is from voters who say they favor him not so much for who he is but for who he is not - George Bush - a sign that Kerry has not yet sold himself or his plans to the state's voters.
"I'm more anti-Bush, and I'm not really that strong on Kerry," says Burel Eding of Toledo, who participated in the poll. "I feel we need a change. I supported Bush on the invasion in Afghanistan, but I don't think he's doing enough on the economy."
The poll, conducted May 20-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, is based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote in November. The poll, which has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, is the largest presidential poll taken in Ohio this year.
The results run counter to the findings of earlier polls, conducted in Ohio by other organizations, that have showed the race a dead heat or with Kerry slightly ahead.
The Plain Dealer results "remind us that there are 50 different state elections, and it is very important to pay attention to the polls in the states, particularly the ones done with a large sample of people who intend to vote," says Karlyn Bowman, who studies opinion polls at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington, D.C. "There are clearly differences in the electorate in states about the race overall."
The poll shows Bush is favored even though nearly one out of two people surveyed say they disapprove of his handling of the economy, which remains the No. 1 issue of concern among Ohio voters. And Bush tops Kerry even though less than half - 45 percent - approve of his handling of the war in Iraq. Among those interviewed who are planning to vote for Bush, 53 percent cite his character and integrity as their top reason for supporting the president. Nearly 30 percent say they plan to vote for him first and foremost because they like the leadership he has shown in the war on terror.
"Bush's strength is the 'strength' issue," says Bowman. "People do believe nationally that the Bush administration has made this nation safer."
Kevin Madden, a Bush campaign spokesman, declined to comment on any of the poll's specific findings. He says he believes "Ohioans look to their president for leadership and clarity on the issues that are important to them" and "that is a message that we look forward to delivering throughout this campaign in Ohio."
Though Bush shows strength in this poll, the results "don't look good for a sitting president," says John Green, director of the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. Bush's support on foreign affairs could change, Green says, especially if the situation in Iraq worsens and it "gets caught up in an issue that he can't control."
For Kerry, the poll shows that voters have yet to connect with Kerry or his domestic and foreign affairs policies, reflected by the 62 percent of Kerry's support comes from people who dislike Bush. Twenty-one percent of those surveyed who plan to vote for Kerry cite his policies as the most important issue; 16 percent say his character and integrity is the top issue.
Bowman says Kerry needs to convert some of the anti-Bush vote into Kerry backers to improve his chances. To do that, she says, Kerry needs to raise more doubt about Bush's handling of the economy and make the message stick."That right now, in national polls and well in Ohio, is the strength of the Democrats because voters think Kerry would better handle the economy," she says.
Kerry doesn't have to convince Shirley Bruce of Munroe Falls.
"I'm with Kerry 100 percent," says Bruce, a retiree who participated in the poll. "I don't like that everything is leaving the state."
Bruce cites Kerry's emphasis on the economy as her top reason for supporting him. But she says she would like to learn more about him.
Kerry's campaign says it knows it must educate voters about the senator and his positions.
"Recent polling in Ohio has fluctuated, and it is still very early to rely on anyone particular poll," says Jennifer Palmieri, Kerry's Ohio spokeswoman. "These numbers reflect a overall dissatisfaction with Bush and an opportunity for John Kerry. We have to work hard to make sure people know who John Kerry is."
The Kerry campaign is airing biographical TV commercials in the state about his family and military background. And Kerry has benefited from special interest groups that have run ads in Ohio critical of Bush's policies. He and his wife, Theresa Heinz Kerry, have visited the state a half-dozen times.
Bush has visited Ohio 17 times as president and has spent millions here to air campaign commercials.
Ohio's voters were narrowly split in the 2000 election, with Bush defeating Al Gore by less than 4 percent. As a result, with 20 electoral votes up for grabs, the state is considered a top prize that could swing the election.
But campaigning in Ohio is difficult because it includes five distinct regions, from flat and mountainous rural regions with a conservative Republican bent to liberal urban areas that favor Democrats.
Voters in Ohio's socially conservative Southwest, which includes the Republican stronghold of Cincinnati, favor Bush by the widest margin - 20 percentage points - over Kerry, 54 percent to 34 percent.
By contrast, voters in the Northeast favor Kerry the most - by 9 percentage points - at 47 percent to 38 percent. The Northeast contains the Democratic cities Cleveland and Youngstown, which have suffered more job losses than most other parts of the state.
Ohio's Southeast region, which includes Appalachia, may be the most competitive at this point - with room for both candidates to make their mark. "The Southeast has born the brunt of economic troubles in Ohio and we will have Kerry spend a great deal of time there," Palmieri says. But converting voters might be difficult, the poll suggests.
Asked if it is reasonably possible that they might change their presidential vote before the November election, 73 percent of the would-be voters say no.
Still, that does leave a large number of undecided voters. Edith Coe of Granville, Ohio, is a voter on the fence.
"I was kind of interested in Kerry but with all the mudslinger ads neither one of them seems that good now," says Coe, a retired school district employee. "It's not that I think Bush is doing a horrible job, but when you hear about how Kerry fluctuates that scares you, too."
The ultimate arbiter of designating Metropolitan Statistical Areas is the U.S. Census Bureau - just about every other institution that matters uses their designation. I went and looked up their criteria, and here's the key excerpt:
OMB accepted the Review Committee’s recommendation to qualify a county as an outlying county if (a) at least 25 percent of the employed residents of the county work in the CBSA’s central county or counties, or (b) at least 25 percent of the jobs in the potential outlying county are accounted for by workers who reside in the CBSA’s central county or counties.
What it seems to come down to is that Statesville is economically self-sufficient enough that it doesn't fall under any of the adjoining MSAs - which are: Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill; Greensboro-Winston Salem-High Point; Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir. Now, I dunno what Statesville supports its local economy on - my guess is speed traps on I-40 and I-77 - but whatever it is seems to be enough to keep it separate (no great loss!)
I personally don't have any objection at all to perceiving Iredell County as part of the Greater Charlotte Area, it's just that I've never thought of Statesville that way and I mainly just didn't want to include it into my analysis. If anything, I've always thought of Statesville as being along the east/west I-40 Corridor; heck, the I-77 Corridor is so relatively new I've never even seen it perceptually distinguished that way.
I'm content letting Statesville be Statesville, which is evidently how it's still assigned, but I agree that eventually it'll likely end up in one of the MSAs some day, and Charlotte is the most probable.
I don't think WV is much in jeopardy. People were surprised when W won it, and most people attributed it to Gore's stance on guns. However, while this certainly didn't help Gore, I've read in several places that there's a bigger trend. In West Virginia's "arm" that sticks out, more educated professionals are moving in who tend to work in the DC suburbs. This is helping make the state much more Republican.
Around the country, many people commute from distant suburbs to closer suburbs, it's not just people in suburbs commuting into the cities. That's also why public transportation is not as effective today as liberals want, since almost all rail systems are designed for people living in the burbs working "downtown".
@
Oh sure, he is so namby-pamby that our enemies hate and fear him beyond anyone.
Thanks. :^D
OK-I'll let it stand at that. Thanks for all the research on this thread.
Zog indulging in wishful thinking again.
Did you catch the pics of Kerry on his bike yesterday? The Secret Service man nearby made him look like a total loser he is. Where's the huge 'bike' vote, anyway? The man has to be delusional. Words fail.
A VERY interesting point to consider in coming years.
If terrorists attack before Nov., for a few hours Bush will be whisked off to safety, as will Cheney, et. al. And we'll be deluged, as we were after 9/11, with media reports implying that they're dirty cowards. We already know the media playbook by heart and hope and pray that when the time comes, the nation's rage targets our enemies...not the man who's only reason for getting up in the morning is the defense of this country.
One other thing is Kerry's sudden discovery that he needs black voters. He did or said something yesterday that pandered to the black vote...can't recall what. Before long, he'll show up in black churches, bible in hand, drumming up support. Oh, I forgot. Politicians aren't supposed to mix church and state. Silly me. That only applies to republicans.
Kerry is such a prickly white boy that I can't imagine many Blacks working up any enthusiasm for him. That won't stop them from slavishly and dutifully voting for him by a 9 - 1 margin, but it may keep absolute numbers down. My guess is that Black turnout is Kerry's panic button.
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