You rang?
Posted on 05/29/2004 4:48:59 PM PDT by Graybeard58
President Bush leads John Kerry by 6 percentage points in the battle for Ohio, a state that could decide who wins the White House, according to a statewide Plain Dealer poll.
Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over Kerry, 47 percent to 41 percent. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader draws 3 percent, though he has yet to qualify for the Ohio ballot. Nine percent say they are undecided.
Though Bush is given low marks for his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq, those who say they favor him cite his moral character and his stewardship over the war on terrorism and homeland security as reasons.
"I'm very concerned about what a change of administration would mean, primarily about security," says Bob Saul, a retired General Electric marketing manager from Cincinnati who participated in the poll.
Though the economy remains a major concern, Saul says he is not willing to risk returning "to an era of appeasement and therefore wind up being more vulnerable to future attacks."
Much of Kerry's support (62 percent) is from voters who say they favor him not so much for who he is but for who he is not - George Bush - a sign that Kerry has not yet sold himself or his plans to the state's voters.
"I'm more anti-Bush, and I'm not really that strong on Kerry," says Burel Eding of Toledo, who participated in the poll. "I feel we need a change. I supported Bush on the invasion in Afghanistan, but I don't think he's doing enough on the economy."
The poll, conducted May 20-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, is based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote in November. The poll, which has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, is the largest presidential poll taken in Ohio this year.
The results run counter to the findings of earlier polls, conducted in Ohio by other organizations, that have showed the race a dead heat or with Kerry slightly ahead.
The Plain Dealer results "remind us that there are 50 different state elections, and it is very important to pay attention to the polls in the states, particularly the ones done with a large sample of people who intend to vote," says Karlyn Bowman, who studies opinion polls at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington, D.C. "There are clearly differences in the electorate in states about the race overall."
The poll shows Bush is favored even though nearly one out of two people surveyed say they disapprove of his handling of the economy, which remains the No. 1 issue of concern among Ohio voters. And Bush tops Kerry even though less than half - 45 percent - approve of his handling of the war in Iraq. Among those interviewed who are planning to vote for Bush, 53 percent cite his character and integrity as their top reason for supporting the president. Nearly 30 percent say they plan to vote for him first and foremost because they like the leadership he has shown in the war on terror.
"Bush's strength is the 'strength' issue," says Bowman. "People do believe nationally that the Bush administration has made this nation safer."
Kevin Madden, a Bush campaign spokesman, declined to comment on any of the poll's specific findings. He says he believes "Ohioans look to their president for leadership and clarity on the issues that are important to them" and "that is a message that we look forward to delivering throughout this campaign in Ohio."
Though Bush shows strength in this poll, the results "don't look good for a sitting president," says John Green, director of the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. Bush's support on foreign affairs could change, Green says, especially if the situation in Iraq worsens and it "gets caught up in an issue that he can't control."
For Kerry, the poll shows that voters have yet to connect with Kerry or his domestic and foreign affairs policies, reflected by the 62 percent of Kerry's support comes from people who dislike Bush. Twenty-one percent of those surveyed who plan to vote for Kerry cite his policies as the most important issue; 16 percent say his character and integrity is the top issue.
Bowman says Kerry needs to convert some of the anti-Bush vote into Kerry backers to improve his chances. To do that, she says, Kerry needs to raise more doubt about Bush's handling of the economy and make the message stick."That right now, in national polls and well in Ohio, is the strength of the Democrats because voters think Kerry would better handle the economy," she says.
Kerry doesn't have to convince Shirley Bruce of Munroe Falls.
"I'm with Kerry 100 percent," says Bruce, a retiree who participated in the poll. "I don't like that everything is leaving the state."
Bruce cites Kerry's emphasis on the economy as her top reason for supporting him. But she says she would like to learn more about him.
Kerry's campaign says it knows it must educate voters about the senator and his positions.
"Recent polling in Ohio has fluctuated, and it is still very early to rely on anyone particular poll," says Jennifer Palmieri, Kerry's Ohio spokeswoman. "These numbers reflect a overall dissatisfaction with Bush and an opportunity for John Kerry. We have to work hard to make sure people know who John Kerry is."
The Kerry campaign is airing biographical TV commercials in the state about his family and military background. And Kerry has benefited from special interest groups that have run ads in Ohio critical of Bush's policies. He and his wife, Theresa Heinz Kerry, have visited the state a half-dozen times.
Bush has visited Ohio 17 times as president and has spent millions here to air campaign commercials.
Ohio's voters were narrowly split in the 2000 election, with Bush defeating Al Gore by less than 4 percent. As a result, with 20 electoral votes up for grabs, the state is considered a top prize that could swing the election.
But campaigning in Ohio is difficult because it includes five distinct regions, from flat and mountainous rural regions with a conservative Republican bent to liberal urban areas that favor Democrats.
Voters in Ohio's socially conservative Southwest, which includes the Republican stronghold of Cincinnati, favor Bush by the widest margin - 20 percentage points - over Kerry, 54 percent to 34 percent.
By contrast, voters in the Northeast favor Kerry the most - by 9 percentage points - at 47 percent to 38 percent. The Northeast contains the Democratic cities Cleveland and Youngstown, which have suffered more job losses than most other parts of the state.
Ohio's Southeast region, which includes Appalachia, may be the most competitive at this point - with room for both candidates to make their mark. "The Southeast has born the brunt of economic troubles in Ohio and we will have Kerry spend a great deal of time there," Palmieri says. But converting voters might be difficult, the poll suggests.
Asked if it is reasonably possible that they might change their presidential vote before the November election, 73 percent of the would-be voters say no.
Still, that does leave a large number of undecided voters. Edith Coe of Granville, Ohio, is a voter on the fence.
"I was kind of interested in Kerry but with all the mudslinger ads neither one of them seems that good now," says Coe, a retired school district employee. "It's not that I think Bush is doing a horrible job, but when you hear about how Kerry fluctuates that scares you, too."
And the insane leftists will vote for Nader.
You rang?
Well, Mr. Eding of Toledo... if WE don' take care of these idiots who want to kill US... there IS no economy to worry about, now is there, Mr. Idiot?!
It will be close here in Ohio, but we Bush volunteers will be working hard to make sure that every Republican votes. Every vote is so important !!!! We cannot sit back and relax when we see polls that show us winning. We need to push on to make sure the Bush lead in Ohio is by a bigger margin just in case the polls are a little off.
poll ping
If you want an explanation as to why Bush may lose PA and OH, then that's it. If you don't, well then you don't.
Fair enough. But taking metro areas (or states, or regions) as a whole, I would argue that faster-growing metro areas tend to be more Republican, and more often manifest a Republican trend, than slower-growing metro areas. Compare the counties comprising Charlotte's SMSA, for instance, with the Cleveland SMSA. I haven't looked it up, but I am confident that a) the Charlotte metro area is growing faster; b) that the Charlotte metro area delivered a far greater percentage of its votes to President Bush in 2000 than did the Cleveland metro area; and c) that the trend over the past couple of decades in both the Charlotte and Cleveland metro areas would indicate a widening of the GOP gap between the two.
Ya, but some of the more GOP metro areas are trending Dem a bit, although the amazing thing, is how stable most metro areas are, over time. Bush of course really tanked in the NYC, Chicago and Philly metro areas, and to a lessor extent in LA, but that was all. Fast growing GOP metro areas that are trending Dem include Phoenix, and Dallas and even Atlanta, along with Columbus. The Twin Cities (slightly Dem) are swinging the other way to slightly GOP (which makes it near unique). By the way, I bet the GOP Charlotte metro area is trending Dem too. You are just not going to make a case of GOP hegemony out of this. To do that, to the extent one can, you need to milk the robust smaller towns, where techies hang out behind their monitors and such.
Do you have any data on a spreadsheet somewhere as to how the Charlotte metro area is trending?
Here are a couple of posts by a Brit from a political chat room I go to.
7890 PM: Carver -- Sat, May 29 5:04pm PST -----
Carver
Maggies....despite what the liberal press may want us to think over here...Bush still commands a lot of respect....Kerry is portrayed over here rightly or wrongly as a dumbphuk
7961 PM: Carver -- Sat, May 29 5:18pm PST -----
Carver
Salt...*LOL*...The Guardian!!.....that little rag is so left its commie....surely you knew that...besides its the man on the street..in the bars and factories and offices I mix with iand I can promise you that unlike the editorials in those leftie tabloids you mention...Bush is well respected over here...but so was Clinton....its just that kerry has stirred up so much chit here that doesn't really concern him
*Note I did change a couple of words that might be improper
Do you mean the city of Charlotte alone (Mecklenburg Co) or the suburbs as well (in Gaston, Cabarrus, and Union Co's).
I don't, but thank you. I just wanted to clarify the fact that Ohio's economy is just slightly above the national average - not "in the toilet."
The metro area, which includes the exurbs, so you need to include part of York County, and parts of other adjacent counties, where folks are part of the same economic zone, and a fair percentage coummute to work at least to the suburbs proper, and live in housing tracts. You get the picture. In any event, it goes beyond Mecklenburg Co, which I know is trending Dem. I don't want to load the dice here for my assertion. I want to be "fair and balanced" as always. :)
"DKS&A based their findings on 767 respondents to the Charlotte MSA (includes Mecklenburg, Gaston, York, Cabarrus and Anson counties)."
I don't know why Union County isn't in there.
"Within the Charlotte MSA (Cabarrus, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Rowan, Union and York Counties) 1,100 jobs were lost during the twelve months ending June 30, 2003 while 20,380 residential building permits were issued producing a -.05 Employment/Permit ratio. Without the previously noted mortgage rate stimulus the market would be in disarray."
My 70 year old Aunt expressed her hope that Pennsylvanians won't be dumb enuf to go Democratic AGAIN. "That Kerry is a SCUMBAG," she insists.
Lose New Hampshire, hold Ohio and Florida and hang on to Arizona and Nevada. Every place else that Bush won in 2000 is pretty solid except maybe W. Virginia. OTOH Kerry will have to hustle to hold Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico and Oregon (all split very closely for Gore in 2000) while at the same time take electoral votes away from Bush. I think all of that is the biggest reason that the Bush camp seems so calm thus far.
ALL ZOGBY SAUCE/WJS POLL WERE WORTHLESS
OK, I can post that info as soon as I get off the phone & track down where I've put it. Might be a little while!
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