Consumer Sentiment Soars [Michigan Preliminary]

Econoday ^ | 6/15/2004 | Econoday

[Tennessean4Bush]

Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary)

Definition
A survey of consumer attitudes concerning both the present situation as well as expectations regarding economic conditions conducted by the University of Michigan. Five hundred consumers are surveyed each month. A preliminary survey is usually reported about the second Friday of the month while a more complete survey is reported two weeks later. The level of consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending.

Why Investors Care

Released on 6/15/04 For Jun 2004

Consumer Sentiment
Consensus forecast: 90.0
Actual: 95.2

Highlights
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index jumped 5 points to 95.2 at the mid-June reading. Both the current conditions and the expectations components increased sharply for the month. These levels are much higher than expected and could be friendly news for equity investors, although bond investors are becoming increasingly worried that a healthy economy spells inflation and higher interest rates. It is interesting to see the spurt in consumer sentiment despite the fact that gasoline prices have remained well above $2/gallon lately. However, employment conditions are certainly improving and that always boosts confidence.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped several points in May to 90.2 after reaching a level of 94.2 in March. Consumer finances were hit by rising mortgage rates as well as higher gasoline prices and this likely dampened consumer optimism to some degree.

Consumer sentiment Consensus Forecast for mid-June 04: 90
Range: 87 to 93

Consumer sentiment is mainly affected by inflation and employment conditions. However, consumers are also impacted by current events such as bear & bull markets, geopolitical events such as war and terrorist attacks. Investors monitor consumer sentiment because it tends to have an impact on consumer spending over the long run (although not necessarily on a monthly basis.)

Data Source: Haver Analytics

[Tennessean4Bush]

The economic news just keeps getting worse and worse for Kerry.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Drip, drip, drip and a bttt.

[Phantom Lord]

The economic news just keeps getting worse and worse for Kerry.

And many FReepers as well. Though I shall not name them.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Though I shall not name them.

You don't have to.

[Lunatic Fringe]

95.2?! The economy is overdosing on Enzyte!

[Coop]

And many FReepers as well. Though I shall not name them.

Ummmm... errrr... does one of them rhyme with "Billy Jean?"

[GraniteStateConservative]

Name a president running for re-election with a MCI of 95. Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Reagan, 1984

MCI has been very predictive of November outcomes. The projected share, if this year's race has dynamics similar to 1996, 1992, and 1984, of the 2-person vote for Bush would be 56.76 +/- 2.2.

[gathersnomoss]

Get out of here.

[GraniteStateConservative]

And if he doesn't do that well, then it's all because of Iraq, which kind of sucks that we could have put such a beating on Kerry, but didn't.

[babaloo]

Evidently the MCCI found the universe of Americans who are not regularly polled by the political pollsters from which to draw their sample. There is a disconnect going on out there. The economy is is shambles according to Kerry and the Dems. They have to know their lies will catch up with them sooner or later.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Word on the street is that Tom Daschle is saddened, deeply saddened.

[OldFriend]

Daschle is on his way to purchase a new jock strap as we speak.

Apropo of nothing.........

[GraniteStateConservative]

Well, not necessarily. It is thought that Gore should have waxed the floor with Bush in 2000 because of the still strong economy. He didn't. Today, polls show that voters haven't given Bush the credit he is due on the economy. Voters may have stopped giving credit for a good economy-- only assigning blame for a bad one. That would make the good economy not as a plus for Bush, but just a neutral factor.

[ModelBreaker]

Ummmm... errrr... does one of them rhyme with "Billy Jean?"

Billy Jean is not my favorite
He's just a guy who says that we should be glum
As jobs to China run

[GraniteStateConservative]

I'm serious. It's shocking how close the numbers correlate. Most polls have MOEs of 3-4%. This has a MOE half that. But, like I said, it all depends on whether 2004 is like 1984, 1992, and 1996-- the last three re-election campaign years. If Iraq dominates in a negative way-- a global turmoil dynamic-- the calculation probably won't be predictive.

[The South Texan]

Again...

Tommy Daschile is deeply saddened.

We may have to have a fund raiser for psychological help for Tommy before the day ends.

[zencat]

There is a disconnect going on out there. The economy is is shambles according to Kerry and the Dems. They have to know their lies will catch up with them sooner or later.

Yep. There comes a time in every recovery when stock markets rise and unemployment falls. Even Dan Rather and the won't be able to hide it, and Kerry will just sound silly talking down the economy after the 401K statements go out in September.

[Tennessean4Bush]

You have to work at being as pessimistic as that, don't you? Is there a class I can attend. I mean, really, I stand in awe.

[GraniteStateConservative]

A class on realism?