Posted on 06/21/2004 12:55:23 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
It's 2010. China invades Taiwan in an attempt to re-unify it with the mainland. China is successful, though at a tremendous cost.
So what happens next? What do they gain by doing this, since Taiwan doesn't exactly have a pile of resource wealth that makes it a worthwhile military target?
The only thing that China gains from a take over of Taiwan is the destruction of what could potentially take down the communist leadership...freedom of thought and action.
They eyeball Japan and and oil and mineral reserves of the souhthern Pacific. What was it called when the Japanese did it? The Great Asian Co-prosperity Sphere or sumpin' like that. Same thing. Also, the Chinese have not forgotten WWII like we have.
This is hysteria and BS. The biggest problem we are going to have with China is that they are going to drive the price of oil up, now that more Chinese are driving cars.
They gain a positional advantage in the Pacific. Taiwan blocks some of their ports and dominates the north-south sea lanes that Japan relies upon.
OTOH, they bite the investment hand that feeds them. But they appear to be ready to do just that.
Good thing they're MFN.
/sarc
Please read RIchard Poe's piece at
http://www.richardpoe.com/column.cgi?story=125
Chinagate Connect the Dots. At least some Californias had the decency not to give an award last week to one of the convicted felons.
Our children really are at risk.
If they do this, I will never buy another pair of shoes from Wal Mart ever again.
Most people mistakenly assume that the U.S. puts itself in a bad position by running up huge deficits that are paid by lending money to foreign interests. In fact, it's the exact opposite -- borrowing money from the U.S. government effectively puts you at the mercy of that government.
They then control the Tawian Straits, which is a key naval chokepoint. Also, they already control the Panama Canal and several other key naval chokepoints around the world, as well as a listening station in Cuba.
The PRC has painted itself into a corner on Taiwan. I don't think they'd be this aggressive had the Brits not turned over Hong Kong.
I'm inclined to agree, a war would be very bad for China economically; I can't see them hazarding it. But nationalism can be a compelling motivation. This was impressed on me several years ago when I met a Chinese-Canadian woman in Minneapolis. She could not understand why China (the mainland) shouldn't have the right to control Taiwan, nor could she understand why the West had any business interfering in the matter.
You have a very loose definition of "control." Welcome to FR.
Looks like the Chicken Littles have come out to play.
The Big Pciture
The big picture is that the Chinese government manages to finish what it started early last century. The destruction of the Nationalist government.
Early last century there was a huge fracas (an understatement) between the Chinese Communist movement under Mao Tse-Tung and the Nationalist movement under Chiang Kai-Shek. The Nationalists were winning, and winning big, and around 1934 the communists had to flee to the desolate mountains of Western China (in what came to be known as the Long March. An aside: China's rockets for its space programs are called the Long March, but that is another story). The communists were almost decimated .....Mao had less than 10,000 troops left!
However in 1937 China was invaded by Japan. Chiang thought the Communists were no longer a threat, and hence decided to stop chasing Mao and concentrated on the Japanese. Mao festered, not forgeting the old Chinese maxim that called for crushing your enemy completely (Chiang must have missed out on some Sun Tzu lessons LOL).
Anyways, 10 yrs later the Communists had recovered enough to launch an attack on Chiang and his Nationalist party. And Mao did not relent until all vestiges of the Nationalist party had either being destroyed, or forced to flee for their lives to the island of Taiwan.
And hence the big picture arises: Taiwan is unfinished business for the mainland. And consequently, they are really not after Taiwan per se .....what they are after is its destruction. They could literally nuke the entire island tomorrow and not give a darn, because they are not after realestate or any such thing. All they want is to follow Sun Tzu's stratagems of war ....crush and obliterate your enemy completely. End of story.
The Strategic Picture:
Taking Taiwan (or taking out Taiwan ...for the Chinese it is the same thing) would mean China would have 100% access to the seas adjacent ...particularly the primary trade routes to Japan. A potent China controlling the sea lanes to Japan could do to our dear friend Nippon what Hitler could only dream of doing to the Brits. A potent China ....and looking at China's frenetic pace at military acquisitions ....particularly naval and naval-oriented ....raises quite a few eyebrows because what they are doing is not for defence purposes. And China wants to dominate the whole Asiatic/Oceanic region ....from the sea of Japan to the Australian shores. Anyways that is their plan.
Oh, one more thing. On Japan. The Chinese remember what the Japanese did to them during the Second World War. And I am certain the Chinese want 'reparations' .....but in blood and kind. Consequently, do not be surprised to see Japan building up its military like crazy (it is already no.4 in temrs of expenditure after the US, Russia and China). And a nuclear Japan in the future is almost a certainty. Why? Because if Taiwan ever falls the next nation China would have its eye on would be Japan (it might take 10yrs after Taiwan ...it may take 100yrs ...but Japan knows China will come a-knocking).
Anyways, the Chinese would never do anything against Japan as long as they need us. They know we would rush to Japan's aid (and anyways for the next couple of decades the Japanese navy ....ooops, selpf-defense forces ....can whoop the Chinese from here to the dark side of Shamballa! The Chinese cannot put their mits on Japan without commiting the Chinese version of Seppuku!). However Taiwan is a different matter. When China takes Taiwan, and it will be within the next couple of years, Taipei will find itself getting little or no assistance. They may get satellite reco from us and such stuff, but no 'real' assistance. And not because we do not want Taiwan to remain independent but because our politicians would not be able to sell the need to defend Taiwan (with American lives) to the public.
Sadly!
I tend to agree with her. Did she also suggest that the U.S. had no business chasing the Japanese out of Manchuria in the 1930s?
They cannot defend the Taiwan strait against our navy. They know this. If they attack Taiwan they mean to destroy it.
Did you see this?
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