Posted on 06/21/2004 12:55:23 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
The U.S. government has cited China as the No. 1 threat to global security for the second time in less than a month.
Both the Pentagon and the Commission on U.S-China Economic and Security Review cited Beijing as a major threat to U.S. national security. The two reports noted the growing military capability of China combined with its predatory economic policy is aimed directly at the United States.
The latest report released by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission was approved by a "unanimous vote of all eleven Commissioners." According to the Commission China's co-operation on international security matters is "un-satisfactory."
The Commission examined in depth the extent of ongoing co-operation between China and the United States on traditional national security matters, most particularly China's assistance in re-solving the North Korea nuclear weapons crisis. The Commission believes that China's performance in this area to date has been unsatisfactory, and we are concerned that U.S. pressure on trade disputes and other unrelated aspects of the relationship may have been toned down by the administration as a concession for China's hoped-for cooperation on this and other vital security matters."
Economic War
According to the report, China is deliberately using economic warfare against America to seek a "competitive advantage over U.S. manufacturers."
"Economic fundamentals suggest that the Chinese yuan is undervalued, with a growing consensus of economists estimating the level of undervaluation to be anywhere from fifteen to forty percent. The Chinese government persistently intervenes in the foreign exchange market to keep its exchange rate pegged at 8.28 yuan per dollar, and through these actions appears to be manipulating its currency valuation," states the report.
The Commission also noted that China is violating its pledges to the World Trade Organization and that U.S. investors may actually be investing in the PLA military expansion.
"China has deliberately frustrated the effectiveness and debased the value of the WTO's TRM (Transitional Review Mechanism) which was intended to be a robust mechanism for assessing China's WTO compliance and for placing multilateral pressure on China to address compliance shortfalls."
"Without adequate information about Chinese firms trading in international capital markets, U.S. investors may be unwittingly pouring money into black box firms lacking basic corporate governance structures, as well as enterprises involved in activities harmful to U.S. security interests," noted the report.
Weapons for Oil
The Commission report also noted that China continues to proliferate advanced weapons to many of its client states including North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran. In addition, China now appears to be willing to trade weapons for oil.
"China's growing energy needs, linked to its rapidly expanding economy, are creating economic and security concerns for the United States. China's energy security policies are driving it into bilateral arrangements that undermine multilateral efforts to stabilize oil supplies and prices, and in some cases may involve dangerous weapons transfers," stated the report.
"China has sought energy cooperation with countries of concern to the United States, including Iran and Sudan, which are inaccessible by U.S. and other western firms. Some analysts have voiced suspicions that China may have offered WMD-related transfers as a component of some of its energy deals," noted the Commission.
New Weapons
The Commission report also revealed that Russia has sold China a more advanced version of the deadly SUNBURN (3M83 Moskit) cruise missile. Nikolay Shcherbakov, adviser to the director general of the Altair Naval Scientific Research Institute of Electronic Engineering, is reported as saying that "we are supplying China with new-generation equipment. We have been allowed to supply MOSKIT supersonic antiship cruise missiles with twice the range - 240km instead of the existing 120."
The Commission also noted a growing concern that China would use nuclear weapons to attack and defeat U.S. forces in the event of a war over Taiwan.
"Recognizing the possible involvement of the U.S. military, the current scholarship on China's R & D finds that PRC strategists believe that a superior navy could be defeated through the disabling of its space-based systems, as for example, by exo-atmospheric detonation of a nuclear warhead to generate an electromagnetic pulse," stated the report.
In addition, the Commission noted that China is pursuing an advanced laser weapon for use against Taiwanese and U.S. forces.
"It has recently been reported that China has successfully developed a laser cannon with a range of more than one hundred kilometers and might have already deployed it in Fujian Province facing Taiwan."
Shooting War in 2005
The Commission's report painted a deadly and growing picture of the Chinese threat with a possible conflict only a year away.
"The China Affairs Department of the Democratic Progressive Party published a report on China's basic military capabilities in which it said that Beijing had developed a 'sudden strike' strategy to attack Taiwan. This story discussed a scenario in which an attack would consist of an initial seven-minute shock and strike missile barrage that would paralyze Taiwan's command system, followed by seventeen minutes in which Taiwan's air space will be invaded by fighter jets. Within twenty-four hours of the strike, 258,000 Chinese troops could be deployed in Taiwan. China's fast-growing military modernization and expansion is aimed at a possible war between 2005 and 2010, according to the report," stated the Commission report.
In early June the Pentagon released a Congressionally mandated report on Chinese military developments. The Pentagon report outlined the double-digit increases in Chinese defense spending and major weapons purchases from Russia.
China currently is third in total defense spending, behind the U.S. and Russia, with nearly $100 billion a year now budgeted for the PLA. The Pentagon report noted that the PLA double-digit increases are expected to continue through 2010.
According to the report, the Chinese build-up of ballistic missiles has changed the balance of power in the Pacific, threatening to start a war over Taiwan. China currently has an estimated 550 short-range missiles opposite Taiwan.
"China most likely will be able to cause significant damage to all of Taiwan's airfields and quickly degrade Taiwan's ground based air-defenses and associated command and control through a combination of SRBMs (short range ballistic missiles), land-attack cruise missiles, special operation forces and other assets," stated the Pentagon report. The Pentagon report noted that China is increasing its long-range missile capability and is expected to expand its inventory to 30 such missiles by the end of 2005. The Pentagon anticipates the Chinese long-range nuclear missile force will exceed 60 before the end of the decade.
Nuclear War
The Pentagon report also warned that Chinese military strategists are considering the use of nuclear weapons against U.S. and Taiwanese forces. According to the Pentagon, a nuclear weapon detonated at high altitude would create an "electromagnetic" shock wave that will disrupt U.S. communications and scramble sophisticated military computers. "PLA theorists who have become aware of these electromagnetic effects may have considered using a nuclear weapon as an unconventional attack option," stated the Pentagon report.
Chinese authorities have reacted explosively to the recent reports, especially over the U.S. commitment to Taiwan. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao underscored the unstable nature of China's relationship by threatening to use military force to seize control of the tiny island nation.
According to the official PRC news Xinhua, China will never tolerate "Taiwan independence", neither will China allow anybody to split Taiwan from the motherland with any means.
"The Taiwan independence activities are the greatest threats to the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait," stated Liu. The official PRC spokesman also asked the United States to stop selling advanced weapons to Taiwan under any pretenses and refrain from sending wrong signals to Taiwan.
It's 2010. China invades Taiwan in an attempt to re-unify it with the mainland. China is successful, though at a tremendous cost.
So what happens next? What do they gain by doing this, since Taiwan doesn't exactly have a pile of resource wealth that makes it a worthwhile military target?
The only thing that China gains from a take over of Taiwan is the destruction of what could potentially take down the communist leadership...freedom of thought and action.
They eyeball Japan and and oil and mineral reserves of the souhthern Pacific. What was it called when the Japanese did it? The Great Asian Co-prosperity Sphere or sumpin' like that. Same thing. Also, the Chinese have not forgotten WWII like we have.
This is hysteria and BS. The biggest problem we are going to have with China is that they are going to drive the price of oil up, now that more Chinese are driving cars.
They gain a positional advantage in the Pacific. Taiwan blocks some of their ports and dominates the north-south sea lanes that Japan relies upon.
OTOH, they bite the investment hand that feeds them. But they appear to be ready to do just that.
Good thing they're MFN.
/sarc
Please read RIchard Poe's piece at
http://www.richardpoe.com/column.cgi?story=125
Chinagate Connect the Dots. At least some Californias had the decency not to give an award last week to one of the convicted felons.
Our children really are at risk.
If they do this, I will never buy another pair of shoes from Wal Mart ever again.
Most people mistakenly assume that the U.S. puts itself in a bad position by running up huge deficits that are paid by lending money to foreign interests. In fact, it's the exact opposite -- borrowing money from the U.S. government effectively puts you at the mercy of that government.
They then control the Tawian Straits, which is a key naval chokepoint. Also, they already control the Panama Canal and several other key naval chokepoints around the world, as well as a listening station in Cuba.
The PRC has painted itself into a corner on Taiwan. I don't think they'd be this aggressive had the Brits not turned over Hong Kong.
I'm inclined to agree, a war would be very bad for China economically; I can't see them hazarding it. But nationalism can be a compelling motivation. This was impressed on me several years ago when I met a Chinese-Canadian woman in Minneapolis. She could not understand why China (the mainland) shouldn't have the right to control Taiwan, nor could she understand why the West had any business interfering in the matter.
You have a very loose definition of "control." Welcome to FR.
Looks like the Chicken Littles have come out to play.
The Big Pciture
The big picture is that the Chinese government manages to finish what it started early last century. The destruction of the Nationalist government.
Early last century there was a huge fracas (an understatement) between the Chinese Communist movement under Mao Tse-Tung and the Nationalist movement under Chiang Kai-Shek. The Nationalists were winning, and winning big, and around 1934 the communists had to flee to the desolate mountains of Western China (in what came to be known as the Long March. An aside: China's rockets for its space programs are called the Long March, but that is another story). The communists were almost decimated .....Mao had less than 10,000 troops left!
However in 1937 China was invaded by Japan. Chiang thought the Communists were no longer a threat, and hence decided to stop chasing Mao and concentrated on the Japanese. Mao festered, not forgeting the old Chinese maxim that called for crushing your enemy completely (Chiang must have missed out on some Sun Tzu lessons LOL).
Anyways, 10 yrs later the Communists had recovered enough to launch an attack on Chiang and his Nationalist party. And Mao did not relent until all vestiges of the Nationalist party had either being destroyed, or forced to flee for their lives to the island of Taiwan.
And hence the big picture arises: Taiwan is unfinished business for the mainland. And consequently, they are really not after Taiwan per se .....what they are after is its destruction. They could literally nuke the entire island tomorrow and not give a darn, because they are not after realestate or any such thing. All they want is to follow Sun Tzu's stratagems of war ....crush and obliterate your enemy completely. End of story.
The Strategic Picture:
Taking Taiwan (or taking out Taiwan ...for the Chinese it is the same thing) would mean China would have 100% access to the seas adjacent ...particularly the primary trade routes to Japan. A potent China controlling the sea lanes to Japan could do to our dear friend Nippon what Hitler could only dream of doing to the Brits. A potent China ....and looking at China's frenetic pace at military acquisitions ....particularly naval and naval-oriented ....raises quite a few eyebrows because what they are doing is not for defence purposes. And China wants to dominate the whole Asiatic/Oceanic region ....from the sea of Japan to the Australian shores. Anyways that is their plan.
Oh, one more thing. On Japan. The Chinese remember what the Japanese did to them during the Second World War. And I am certain the Chinese want 'reparations' .....but in blood and kind. Consequently, do not be surprised to see Japan building up its military like crazy (it is already no.4 in temrs of expenditure after the US, Russia and China). And a nuclear Japan in the future is almost a certainty. Why? Because if Taiwan ever falls the next nation China would have its eye on would be Japan (it might take 10yrs after Taiwan ...it may take 100yrs ...but Japan knows China will come a-knocking).
Anyways, the Chinese would never do anything against Japan as long as they need us. They know we would rush to Japan's aid (and anyways for the next couple of decades the Japanese navy ....ooops, selpf-defense forces ....can whoop the Chinese from here to the dark side of Shamballa! The Chinese cannot put their mits on Japan without commiting the Chinese version of Seppuku!). However Taiwan is a different matter. When China takes Taiwan, and it will be within the next couple of years, Taipei will find itself getting little or no assistance. They may get satellite reco from us and such stuff, but no 'real' assistance. And not because we do not want Taiwan to remain independent but because our politicians would not be able to sell the need to defend Taiwan (with American lives) to the public.
Sadly!
I tend to agree with her. Did she also suggest that the U.S. had no business chasing the Japanese out of Manchuria in the 1930s?
They cannot defend the Taiwan strait against our navy. They know this. If they attack Taiwan they mean to destroy it.
Did you see this?
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