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Iran: Fomenting Crisis?
STRATFOR ^
| June 21, 2004 1624 GMT
Posted on 6/22/2004, 3:09:27 AM by Axion
Summary
Iran seized British patrol boats in the Shatt al-Arab in southern Iraq on June 21. The move is intended to indicate Iran's ability to trigger diplomatic crises and remind the world of Tehran's political and military relevance in the oil-rich Persian Gulf.
Analysis
Iran seized three British patrol boats in the Shatt al-Arab in southern Iraq on June 21. Britain confirmed it had lost communication with three boats in the area. Iran and Iraq claim rights to the 120-mile Shatt al-Arab waterway, the confluence of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers that feeds into the Persian Gulf. Both states have naval vessels patrolling the waterway, with Iran controlling the approaches to Abadan and Khorramshahr.
The seizure is an attempt by Tehran to revive its relevance in the region. Iran likely seized the British boats deliberately, with the intent of stirring up a minor diplomatic crisis. The goal is to remind Europe and the United States that Tehran continues to play a critical role in the region -- one with a military and political reach in Iraq. More minor diplomatic crises with Iran are likely to erupt in the coming weeks.
Iran expected a much greater role in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq than it has achieved. Since the 1980-1988 war, Tehran has worked to secure the country's Western flank by cultivating ties with Iraq's Shiite population and backing militant groups -- including the Iraqi Hezbollah, Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq. The United States has proven more adept than expected at negotiating the multitude of ethnic, religious and regional rivalries in Iraq and seems poised to hand over power to a government not wholly run by Shia.
Meanwhile, Washington and London are pressuring Tehran's nuclear program. On June 18, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) censured Iran, warning that it had not fully cooperated with efforts to investigate the extent of its nuclear program.

Washington is pushing for the U.N. Security Council to consider the matter -- a move that could conceivably lead to sanctions against Tehran. The United States claims Iran is building nuclear weapons and points to evidence of a uranium enrichment program with potential military uses. Iran denies the charge but continues to stall IAEA investigations.
Iran views itself as the natural and rightful leader of the Gulf region. It historically has projected power through land and sea assets and has tapped the populations of Arab Shia in neighboring states to influence regional politics.
Iranian military activity in the Persian Gulf has been mostly dormant for more than 15 years. Iran last took an offensive stance during "the tanker war" -- the maritime portion of the Iran-Iraq conflict of 1980-1988 -- when Iranians and Iraqis regularly targeted oil tankers at each others' port facilities. Iran went so far as to launch Chinese-made Silkworm anti-ship missiles at tankers docked in Kuwait.
To ensure the flow of oil from the Gulf, the United States shelled Iranian oil platforms and re-flagged and physically escorted oil tankers in and out of the Gulf. Iran is not about to trigger a war with the United States. With the U.S. presidential elections only four months away and Iran having achieved few of its goals in Iraq, Tehran needs to do something.
Iraqi sovereignty will not translate into another war between Baghdad and Tehran. But neither is Iran's western flank locked down. Nor can Iran be certain of the extent of its ability to shape Iraqi domestic politics or its foreign policy.
On June 21, senior Iranian officials incited controversy with the West through a barrage of belligerent statements. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei criticized the nuclear arms hegemony of the United States and Europe, saying, "The big powers see their illegitimate profits in their economic, cultural, scientific dominance over other nations and pursue the strategy of preventing other countries from attaining scientific independence."
Former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the chairman of the Expediency Council, criticized U.S. military actions in Iraq, mentioning U.S. warplanes bombing Iraqi cities and the Abu Ghraib torture scandal. And Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi criticized the European Union for its position on the question of nuclear arms.
In a bid to demonstrate its military and political influence in the Gulf, Iran has revived a territorial dispute with the United Arab Emirates. The Iranian navy seized several UAE fishing boats near the Qeshm and Siri islands, and Iran has also had recent naval disputes with Qatar.
The statements and the boat seizures come at a critical juncture in Iranian foreign policy. The United States and its allies are moving forward with the establishment of a government in Iraq. Iran has been unable to influence that government. Al Qaeda's guerrilla war in Saudi Arabia is hitting its stride, and all eyes are focused on the near-daily attacks against Westerners and the question of continued oil output.
Events that will determine the future of the region are taking place. Stuck on the sidelines, Iran is trying to alter this trend. A minor diplomatic crisis with London will not completely reverse Tehran's political fortunes, will set the stage for future contention and provide the Iranians with a general idea of how the British would handle crises. The move -- a probe intended to elicit information and intelligence rather than a full-scale response -- heralds Iran's intent to take political, and perhaps military, risks to revive its role in the Gulf.
TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: iran; maritime; royalnavy; southwestasia; stratfor; uk
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1
posted on
6/22/2004, 3:09:28 AM
by
Axion
To: Axion
2
posted on
6/22/2004, 3:11:53 AM
by
BenLurkin
(I remember.)
To: Axion
A great excuse to bomb Iran's nuclear sites. LOL
3
posted on
6/22/2004, 3:14:07 AM
by
Rodm
(Seest thou a man diligent in his business? He shall stand before kings)
To: BenLurkin; Axion
we need to deal with the islamic threat
we need to limit our own casualties.
we need to limit islamic civilian casualties as well.
I think we need to get the tactical or battlefield nukes with a very small kill radius back into the US military and confront the armies of these islamic barbarians.
To: Axion
The mullahs want attention? Be careful of what you wish for, sandmaggots. Ask Saddam.
5
posted on
6/22/2004, 3:16:43 AM
by
datura
(Battlefield justice is what our enemies deserve. If you win, you live. If you lose, you die.)
To: jerrydavenport
I'm afraid that we will stick to a no first use policy in that regards, and I'm equally afraid that we may need to counter strike in that manner.
6
posted on
6/22/2004, 3:18:22 AM
by
BenLurkin
(I remember.)
To: Rodm
A great excuse to bomb Iran's nuclear sites. LOL
I think there is a fair chance such a bombing may be forthcoming from the Israelis. I would also suspect such a bombing would come, if it does, before Jun 30.
To: Axion
A msg to the ruling mullahs/ayatollahs of Iran:
T'is not good to tug on Superman's cape. Or spit into the wind.
And one deliverable nuclear weapon might get you a glass parking lot.
When are the sane Persians going to eliminate the theocracy?
5.56mm
8
posted on
6/22/2004, 3:24:43 AM
by
M Kehoe
To: Axion
Perfect time to test our nuclear arsenal.
9
posted on
6/22/2004, 3:26:23 AM
by
RichardW
To: swilhelm73
As much as I would like to see them do it, I will bet that our government would have a complete fit if it should happen. I cannot imagine anything that would upset the stability of the region any more than Israel bombing Iran.
I would like to see us do something, but I wonder if we actually have the troop strength to do so.
10
posted on
6/22/2004, 3:32:42 AM
by
arjay
("Are we a government that has a country, or a country that has a government?" Ronald Reagan)
To: Axion
Headline should read "
Iran Picking a Fight"
Isn't this the kind of stuff that gets major wars started? Like the destruction of the Maine, the Gulf of Tonkin incident, and the sinking of the Lusitania.
11
posted on
6/22/2004, 3:35:39 AM
by
FierceDraka
("Party Before Country" - The New Motto of the Democratic Party)
To: arjay
But then again, if the Israelis do it, we remain blameless...
Even if Iraqi airspace is used we can claim to not be ready for an airspace incurtion.
To: swilhelm73
I think there is a fair chance such a bombing may be forthcoming from the Israelis. I would also suspect such a bombing would come, if it does, before Jun 30. This could indeed happen at some point, although I'm unsure why you think it would happen before June 30.
I would think that an Israeli strike would provoke a region-wide war. Iran has promised to retaliate severely against Israel. If they do attempt to retaliate, Israel will have to respond, probably with mostly preemptive strikes against Iranian military facilities. Iran may respond by instructing Hezbollah to respond in force. Israel would then have to attack Iran, Lebanon, and Syria simultaneously. I would expect that the United States would get involved in such a war as well.
Does anyone else think this would be the likely outcome of an Israeli strike, or am I just pessimistic (not that an excuse to overthrow two enemy governments is a bad thing).
13
posted on
6/22/2004, 4:01:16 AM
by
EvilOverlord
(America....a shining city on a hill...freedom burning bright)
To: Axion
The simplest answers are the best. The Abbasids were the last of the great caliphs, inheriting the mantle from Muhammad through the Umayyads. Ghenghis Khan overthrew the Abbasids. The Qaeda khalifa movement has intended to bring it to the mat using Iran all along to reestablish the caliphate there, complete with nukes and theocracy. IRan supports Hezbollah, which is in Iraq, and is supported by Theresa Heinz.
I am an Islamic Studies grad who left the career. After returning home a few days after 9 11, I realized this was holy war. Then again, I had said so since 1979.
I have studied the Middle East since 1963, but am not Arab, or Muslim. Rather, I am an American patriot, and feel like a dying breed.
Search my alias and look at my posts. And, pray for President Bush and our nation.
To: FierceDraka
Iranians are lousy history students. Looks like time for a "do it over'.
15
posted on
6/22/2004, 4:06:21 AM
by
oyez
(¡Desea vivo el revolutuin de Reagan!)
To: Axion
"The goal is to remind Europe and the United States that Tehran continues to play a critical role in the region "
They just don't like not being paid enough attention.
They're so juvenile.
16
posted on
6/22/2004, 4:10:38 AM
by
nuconvert
("America will never be intimidated by thugs and assassins." ( Azadi baraye Iran)
To: EvilOverlord
The 30th is the date of the handover.
I doubt any Iraqi government would approve use of their airspace by Israel. So they would either have to take the long way around (the wonders of mid air refueling), or cause a serious diplomatic issue between the US and the new Iraqi government.
As for the response, Iran can do little. Iran itself can't get to Israel.
A more direct offensive on Israel by Hezbollah would give them the cover they need to deal with the Islamists in Lebanon.
Syria meanwhile doesn't much like Iran and is unlikely to respond to such an attack with anything more then strongly worded diplomacy.
To: BenLurkin
we may need to counter strike I would hope the counter strike is quick, strong, and immediate.
18
posted on
6/22/2004, 4:18:33 AM
by
RightWhale
(Destroy the dark; restore the light)
To: Axion
If Britain chooses to invade Iran will the UN be consulted, as well as France and Germany? And will the US hold the Lion's coat or assist if asked?
19
posted on
6/22/2004, 4:23:16 AM
by
luvbach1
(In the know on the border.)
To: swilhelm73
"I would also suspect such a bombing would come, if it does, before Jun 30." I forecasted 90 days last night in a phone conversation with my son.
20
posted on
6/22/2004, 4:23:43 AM
by
blam
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